EW on Historic BTC and future
EDIT: This chart is flawed with a larger than placed parallel bar. But, since I've published this chart, it seems new information has been put out about MTGOX trading practices that will probably hamper our prospects after breaking the ATH this summer. (And some EW failure on my part) I will be putting out another similar chart that reflects these changes.
Got this from someone on TV chat, very nice chart. I put some manual EW to work on it and this is what I came up with.
I'm thinking we'll only hit $3500-ish on our current wave only because of the previous 4th cycle hit a lower high than expected. The first one hit a higher high, but it is still under the median.
250k on the last wave sounds ridiculous... but there it is in line with the other crazy high during MTGOX.
With the 5th reversal wave, I think we'll see a bigger longer drop. I predict it will take about a full year to reach the bottom, down to the old support line created in 2011-2012.
It feels good to now know we have 2 more bubbles until the "End of Bitcoin" super-despair cycle (March 2015 - October 2016). I guess it could drop even more but there aren't any other lower major support lines for that theory. I found one from 2013 but it kinda sucks as a support line... though it fits right inline with all the "$200 retrace!" bears... lol
Got this from someone on TV chat, very nice chart. I put some manual EW to work on it and this is what I came up with.
I'm thinking we'll only hit $3500-ish on our current wave only because of the previous 4th cycle hit a lower high than expected. The first one hit a higher high, but it is still under the median.
250k on the last wave sounds ridiculous... but there it is in line with the other crazy high during MTGOX.
With the 5th reversal wave, I think we'll see a bigger longer drop. I predict it will take about a full year to reach the bottom, down to the old support line created in 2011-2012.
It feels good to now know we have 2 more bubbles until the "End of Bitcoin" super-despair cycle (March 2015 - October 2016). I guess it could drop even more but there aren't any other lower major support lines for that theory. I found one from 2013 but it kinda sucks as a support line... though it fits right inline with all the "$200 retrace!" bears... lol
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