GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools down
Updated
On the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete.
XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election.
News point
The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election.
On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats.
In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices.
Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations.
Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon.
Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border.
About monetary policy
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory.
Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales.
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside.
The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead.
On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548.
During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,640USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election.News point
The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election.
On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats.
In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices.
Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations.
Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon.
Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border.
About monetary policy
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory.
Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside.
The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead.
On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548.
During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,640USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
Trade active
Plan BUY +60pips🔼🔼🔼Note
Gold fell below 2,600 USD/oz, surpassing the October bottomNote
Fed's Barkin: The Fed's focus could shift to increasing inflation risks or reducing employment risks, depending on how the economy develops.Note
Gold prices fell to near a two-month low on Tuesday (November 12), as a stronger dollar, optimism about economic growth under the second Trump administration and broader market shifts increased. market after the US Presidential election on November 5.Note
Note
Under new President Donald Trump, the Fed may face new policies, as companies plan to raise prices to prepare for higher tariffs on imports that he proposes. Although the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 bps, Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed that the election will not affect the Fed's decisions in the short term because it is too early to predict the timing or nature of policy changes. potential fiscal.Note
Gold dropped to nearly 2,560 USD/ozNote
🔴Spot gold is 1.00% lower on the day, falling below $2,550 an ounce for the first time since September 18.Note
Spot gold price decreased 0.1% to 2,570.05 USD/oz, hitting the lowest level since September 12. US gold futures contracts closed down 0.5% at 2,572.90 USD.Note
Over the past 2 weeks, gold investors have been worried as they witnessed the price of this precious metal fall from the price range of 2,800 USD/ounce to more than 2,500 USD/ounce. Despite being soothed by the information that gold is still strongly supported in the medium and long term, gold holders are still "anxious" as prices continue to decline day by day.Note
Gold prices started a new trading week this morning (November 18) in a state of strong increase, after recording the strongest weekly decline in more than 3 years last week. However, experts say that the pressure to depreciate this precious metal is still great due to profit-taking activities of investors, the upward trend of the USD, and expectations of interest rate reduction that have become weaker after the election. elect US president.
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