Short

Will XAUUSD fall to lower low ?

Updated

When examining the gold price from the perspective of a downtrend rally, it becomes apparent that, up to this point, XAUUSD has demonstrated a rejection of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This occurrence serves as the initial indication that the downtrend's strength remains robust. In the event that the downtrend's momentum subsides, there exists the potential for XAUUSD to undergo a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. At present, our position places us at the level of a lower high.

All attention is currently fixated on Powell's impending speech scheduled for tomorrow, as it is anticipated to offer insights into the resilience of the USD.

Invalidation:
This analysis becomes untenable should the price surge beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Validation:
This analysis maintains its validity as long as the price remains situated below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Note

A significant $20 drop occurred during the US session, causing the value to decrease from 1923 to 1903. Not bad.

At present, the red and yellow lines are providing robust support. If a rejection occurs, there is a possibility that XAUUSD will ascend to the 50% Fibonacci retracement next week. Conversely, if a breakout occurs, XAUUSD will likely experience a deeper decline.

Before

After

Note

As anticipated, XAUUSD has rebuffed the minor trendline and is presently in the process of retesting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Throughout this week, our focus remains on the forthcoming influx of US economic data, including the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The viability of the 50% Fibonacci retracement will be revealed in due course.

Note

Important supply & demand:

The major downtrend line peak at 1950-53
Strong resistance upper channel at 1940-42
Strong support bottom channel at 1924-26
50% Fibonacci retracement at 1936-1938

Note

So far the price retest the 61.80 Fibonacci retracement, it's an interesting week. Waiting for the incoming US data and NFP.

Note

NFP Chart
So far Gold fall back inside the channel, and rejected 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.

Note

The recent price action exhibited a notable rejection at the 61.80% Fibonacci level, which is one of the key Fibonacci retracement levels. In Fibonacci retracement analysis, traders often focus on three significant levels: 38.20%, 50%, and 61.80%, which are considered strong areas of interest.

Presently, there appears to be a small Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the lower time frame. I maintain the perspective that XAUUSD (Gold) may need to undergo another retest around the 1860-75 price range before potentially embarking on a bullish trend that could extend until January 2024.

Only time will reveal the true outcome of these market dynamics.

Note

A potential scenario of establishing a lower low is indicated at the location marked by the red arrow. Additionally, it is crucial to maintain vigilant oversight of forthcoming high-impact economic reports from the United States and developments related to Russia.

Note

The analysis was nearly perfect, demonstrating the high accuracy of Fibonacci. The Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.80%, 50%, and 38.20% are the most robust indicators for predicting retracement.

At present, there is a strong support level observed in the 1790-98 area.

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