1. The Fed's interest rate decision dominates this week's market
(May 7) The Fed will announce the May FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. The market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but Powell's speech will be the key. The April non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected (an increase of 177,000 people), coupled with the Fed's concerns about inflation, Powell may continue his hawkish stance and emphasize "anti-inflation priority". If he releases a signal of "delayed interest rate cuts", it may suppress gold bullish sentiment; on the contrary, if it implies concerns about economic slowdown, gold may be supported. In addition, several Fed officials will go to Iceland to participate in an economic meeting on Friday, and we need to pay attention to their statements on monetary policy.
2. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
Sino-US trade frictions continue to escalate, with the US imposing tariffs on China as high as 245% and hitting China's re-export trade. However, the US has recently released a signal of easing, with companies such as Walmart resuming orders from China and bearing tariff costs, showing that US companies have limited tolerance for high tariffs. China requires the US to cancel unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. In addition, the situation between India and Pakistan is tense again, and the rising geopolitical risks may boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
3. Market sentiment and capital flows
Domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 23.47 tons in the first quarter, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about gold in the long term. However, Nomura Securities warned that gold may face a technical correction due to abnormal capital flows (GLD funds in and out) and overheated technical indicators (gold prices deviated from the 200-day moving average by 25%). In addition, COMEX gold speculative net long positions hit a 14-month low, and market sentiment was cautious.
(May 7) The Fed will announce the May FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. The market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but Powell's speech will be the key. The April non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected (an increase of 177,000 people), coupled with the Fed's concerns about inflation, Powell may continue his hawkish stance and emphasize "anti-inflation priority". If he releases a signal of "delayed interest rate cuts", it may suppress gold bullish sentiment; on the contrary, if it implies concerns about economic slowdown, gold may be supported. In addition, several Fed officials will go to Iceland to participate in an economic meeting on Friday, and we need to pay attention to their statements on monetary policy.
2. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
Sino-US trade frictions continue to escalate, with the US imposing tariffs on China as high as 245% and hitting China's re-export trade. However, the US has recently released a signal of easing, with companies such as Walmart resuming orders from China and bearing tariff costs, showing that US companies have limited tolerance for high tariffs. China requires the US to cancel unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. In addition, the situation between India and Pakistan is tense again, and the rising geopolitical risks may boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
3. Market sentiment and capital flows
Domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 23.47 tons in the first quarter, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about gold in the long term. However, Nomura Securities warned that gold may face a technical correction due to abnormal capital flows (GLD funds in and out) and overheated technical indicators (gold prices deviated from the 200-day moving average by 25%). In addition, COMEX gold speculative net long positions hit a 14-month low, and market sentiment was cautious.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.