Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

Gold market trend analysis next Monday

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🔶Current market situation
This week, gold prices retreated sharply after hitting around 2790, and have been weak for two consecutive trading days. Although the non-agricultural data released on Friday provided some positive support for gold, gold still fell under pressure, showing a weak trend. The main focus of the market is on the upcoming US election, but gold fell significantly before the election and failed to break through the key mark of $2800.

🔶Trend analysis
From a technical point of view, the large-scale bullish trend of gold has not yet changed, but the bullish trend of the small cycle has ended, and an adjustment pattern has been formed. This adjustment may cause gold to form a large range of fluctuations at high levels. The market generally expects that gold will fall sharply after reaching the peak, but in my opinion, the probability of a continuous decline in the short term is not high. Even if the bull market enters the adjustment stage, gold may maintain a long-term high-level shock, and the fundamental support factors are still positive for gold.

🔶Technical indicators
Short-term trend: In the short term, the trend of gold is weak, and the adjustment has not yet been in place. The 4-hour MACD has just crossed downward, indicating that there is still some room for retracement in the short term.
Key price range:
Currently under pressure near 2762, the short-term low of 2730 is likely to be broken, and the support below is concentrated in the 2715-2710 area. Short-term pressure moves down to around 2750.

🔶Operation suggestions
Taking into account the current market conditions and technical trends, the short-term operation suggestion for next Monday is to mainly short on rebounds and supplemented by long on pullbacks. Look for shorting opportunities near 2750, while paying close attention to the support areas of 2730 and 2715-2710 to deal with possible pullbacks. The market will pay close attention to the upcoming US election, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations, but after gold peaks, the possibility of a sharp drop in the short term is relatively low.

🔴Short-term upper resistance range @ 2758-2762
🟢Short-term lower support range @ 2718-2720

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🔥The recent gold trend is mainly affected by the weak US non-farm data, the upcoming US presidential election and the policies of central banks of various countries. As the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week approaches, investors should pay attention to the monetary policies of major economies and the results of the election, which may continue to dominate the gold market next week.
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Gold Trading Strategies
🎯Strategy 1: Gold Sell 2745-2747, SL 6-8$, TP 2730-2720, Breaking position looks to 2710 line✅

🎯Strategy 2: Gold Buy 2708-2710 , SL 6-8$, TP 2720-2730, Breaking position looks to 2740 line✅

⚠️The trend of the gold market may change rapidly, and the trading strategy may be adjusted in real time. Investors are advised to place orders carefully and manage account funds and position reasonably. If you have no sufficient confidence in the transaction, you can contact me at any time, and I will be patient with a professional perspective to provide you with guidance, and strive to help you achieve long -term and stable benefits.
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snapshot
Last week, gold encountered resistance and stagnation in the upward trend, forming an obvious M-head structure. After the price was under pressure in the 2790 resistance zone, it broke through the 2771 support level and quickly fell back, forming a large waterfall-like decline. Subsequently, gold received support in the 2730 area and launched a corrective rebound. After reaching the 2762 line last Friday, it was blocked and fell back again, indicating that the market is still under obvious pressure in the short term. In the current structure, the key resistance level above gradually moves down to the 2790, 2761, and 2750 lines, while the stability of the 2731 support level is concerned. If this support level is effectively broken, gold will have the risk of further falling to the 2710-2715 area.

At present, gold is in a high-level decline trend after price repair. In the short term, gold is gradually testing the stability of the triangle convergence structure. If the price effectively falls below the lower track support of the triangle, it is expected to continue to seek support downward, and the target range is located at the intersection of the lower track of the daily channel and the bottom of the horizontal range, that is, the 2710-2715 area. This area is also the key long-short dividing line of this round of trend, which determines the directional choice of gold's short-term trend.

Daily chart: From the daily line structure, gold is still in the correction stage after the high. The current adjustment is of the nature of falling under pressure from highs, and the price has never been able to break through the upper resistance, showing the gradual strengthening of short-selling power.

4-hour chart: On the 4-hour chart, the gold price is in the end area of ​​the triangle convergence, repeatedly testing the support level of this range. If there is an effective break, it will open up further downward space.

1-hour chart: In the short cycle, gold shows the characteristics of fluctuating downward. The current price is in a horizontal consolidation range, indicating that the long and short forces are temporarily balanced, but the downward pressure still exists.

Given the significant pressure in the current trend and the increased downside risk, the short-term strategy is mainly to sell short on the rebound. In intraday operations, it is recommended to focus on the performance of the 2731 support level below, observe the stop loss at this position and the changes in market sentiment. If there is an effective break, the lower side will further look to the 2710-2715 area.

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