JULY 5TH 2660, DRAFT 26-C
This is the last draft.
1) because slower than this and the trends devolve into sideways for months
2) from previous draft 26-B, I've eliminated all those variations
3) this is the last variation of this rally in this precise window
4) which is a slower version of blue route (originally DRAFT 25)
5) watch the bold support line
6) going down there NOW?
7) would probably kill the setup because time would run out
8) you can't "rebuild", reset, get back into position...
9) that would take a week or two
10) hence, clock would run out
1) because slower than this and the trends devolve into sideways for months
2) from previous draft 26-B, I've eliminated all those variations
3) this is the last variation of this rally in this precise window
4) which is a slower version of blue route (originally DRAFT 25)
5) watch the bold support line
6) going down there NOW?
7) would probably kill the setup because time would run out
8) you can't "rebuild", reset, get back into position...
9) that would take a week or two
10) hence, clock would run out
Note
3:19 AM ET faster is ok, BUT SLOWER IS NOT OK!a) because the composition of the trends only exist to make this move possible ...
b) for exactly as much time there is from here to end of day on July 5th
c) so price does not keep up on day 1
d) that automatically eliminates this route
e) and THE ENTIRE BREAKOUT SETUP
f) price would devolve into 3 more months of sideways
g) or sideways to down, either or
Note
3:34 AM ET, 2329.XX, push really hard and PRICE MAY RECOVER POSITION a) for draft 26-B
b) or the orange route
c) it's not obvious either or
d) the difference between the two is really not that big
e) you're talking a 12-16 hour difference of break out
f) or breaking above 2381
Note
g) basically the question is:h) WHEN DOES 2367-2372 GET HIT AGAIN
i) that determines timing for the rest of the way
Note
3:47 AM, 2331.XX -- I am lights out soon so to sum it upa) EVEN RIGHT NOW, 26-C is winning vs 26-B
b) for 26-B to win, price needs 2338 soon and then hold 2330 into NY ..
c) so NY session can reach 2367-2370
d) if not ...
Note
e) here:Note
Note
f) in chart above that's the last two variants of this roueg) if price IS STRONG RIGHT NOW, then NY will push to 2367-72
h) IF NOT, NY will check the bold line again
i) leaving only 1 ROUTE LEFT for this setup
j) right now at 2330.71 and 3:53 AM ET, 26-C or yellow route is actually winning
k) why?
l) bc of the extra drop to 2321 before price bounced to 2331
m) this IMPLIES stalling at 2331-2338 and checking one more time
n) the only way to "regain favorite position" is TO PROVE THAT IMPLICATION WRONG
o) this simply bc buying supports buying
p) and hesitation means weakness
q) so there it is
r) see you in the morning
Note
5:54 AM 3.5 HOURS FROM NY OPEN AND RETEST ALREADY...a) odds still favor getting a move to 2369
b) when that move happens is very important for the survival of this rally
c) this dragging under 2330 is killing a great deal of time that we do not have
d) so that's where we are
e) under all scenarios right now, we should still make 2369 by midnight
f) and that's starting to push the time limit for this move
g) I would really prefer it by 6 PM
h) so we take what we can get and go on from there
Note
7:02 AM, 1 MORE ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS LAST MOVE1) first, NY may retest under 2320
2) I'm not sure at all
3) whether or not that happens
4) bears will try to stall to kill the clock
5) down to as little as possible
Note
6) 7:10 AM BEARS WANT TO PUSH UNDER 2316.. I DON'T KNOW IF THE CAN OR NOTNote
7) 7:12, bulls want 2333, bears want under 23168) it's gonna be a fight this morning
Note
9) it looks like bears want 2310-231210) I dont know if you they can do it
11) but for the next 4-hours
12) it might be hard for bulls to do anything until bears give up
Note
7:37 AM, it's not obvious either side wins here13) whatever the case bears should able to stall for a few hours
14) leaving that last window even tighter
15) if they manage to push new low
16) bulls odds do not move much bc they are down to last possible route already
Note
8:59 AM 2327.XX, that sideways fight is over17) price should resume going up now
18) target 2369 before midnight
Note
9:34 AM ET 2332.XX and and a bit more shifting1) this move is going to look a bit different than chart at top
2) let's get to 2369 so I can see what the trend map should look like
Note
10:01, 2326.xx BE VERY CAREFUL a) this drop to 2326...
b) makes no sense here
c) so better be bought and pushed up
d) if it inches down
e) that's a big immediate problem
Note
11:02 AM ET, STALLING AT 2331-ISH1) so the previous four posts stated that "which draft" we end up with
2) is dependent on the move to 2369
3) WE HAVE UNTIL 11 PM TO DELIVER 2367-2372
4) if not, it's all over
5) which feels so stupid that could be true
6) but it really is
7) the window is tightening, that's why it's so hard to get past 34
8) but I still think gold can do it
Note
THIS DRAFT IS DONE, HERE IST 26-D
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