XAUUSD Monthly Analysis and Possible Retracements
Updated
The trend, by far, remains bearish! However, there are certain levels we might wanna keep track of, in order to always have a better idea of possible Gold targets. For now, we see a struggling bullish engulfing on the last daily candle on last Friday (09-02-2020) which might imply to the possible pending correction. In order to look for correction targets we stick our head back into monthly Fibonacci retracements targets and my previous analysis about XAUUSD bearish channel (related ideas). Now here are the highlights you might wanna keep track of:
1- No further downward movement unless we are through that supporting region around 1680. (I have said it multiple times and I will say it again)
2- We are through the latest possible lower trendline on daily timeframe so the most probable direction still remains bearish. (Broken at 1724)
3- The August monthly candle is a spectacular Marubozu indicating a further low.
4- FEDs intend to remain hawkish as a counter-measure for inflation hike.
5- Considering all these factors I am compelled to consider this daily engulfing as an attempt to ease out for the next few days in a form of the pending correction. Therefore, it important to know where this correction might be heading to and hence, we consult the monthly fibo retracement.
6- Unless we break out of 1748 (0.382 Fibo and Simltaneously upper line of our bearish channel), we are not talking about a possible bullish reversal.
7- There are chances that we might see that 1728-33 retested (considering we are no longer below the last months bottom at around 1709)
Advice: If you are a day trader or a speculator please ignore this part of the idea. However, if you are a swing trader like me please consider not buying unless we are through 1748 and do not sell unless we see a proper bearish rejection candlestick on either daily timeframe or at least H4 somewhere between upcoming London and New York. Thank you :-)
Happy trading and Happier profits :-)
1- No further downward movement unless we are through that supporting region around 1680. (I have said it multiple times and I will say it again)
2- We are through the latest possible lower trendline on daily timeframe so the most probable direction still remains bearish. (Broken at 1724)
3- The August monthly candle is a spectacular Marubozu indicating a further low.
4- FEDs intend to remain hawkish as a counter-measure for inflation hike.
5- Considering all these factors I am compelled to consider this daily engulfing as an attempt to ease out for the next few days in a form of the pending correction. Therefore, it important to know where this correction might be heading to and hence, we consult the monthly fibo retracement.
6- Unless we break out of 1748 (0.382 Fibo and Simltaneously upper line of our bearish channel), we are not talking about a possible bullish reversal.
7- There are chances that we might see that 1728-33 retested (considering we are no longer below the last months bottom at around 1709)
Advice: If you are a day trader or a speculator please ignore this part of the idea. However, if you are a swing trader like me please consider not buying unless we are through 1748 and do not sell unless we see a proper bearish rejection candlestick on either daily timeframe or at least H4 somewhere between upcoming London and New York. Thank you :-)
Happy trading and Happier profits :-)
Note
The 1728-33 was retested and now we have broken lower than 1680 :-) stay tuned for upcoming idea about xauusd
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