When will the gold adjustment end?
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9xSJ10qD/
Risk Warning on Monday
Undecided, Japan convenes a special parliament to elect a prime minister.
Trump's victory not only triggered a sharp reaction in the market, but also made investors pay deep attention to the potential impact of future policies. Over the past month, the uncertainty risk of the general election has been the focus of the market, and the election has led to capital outflows from metals to other assets. This capital flow reflects the market's optimistic expectations for Trump's policies, especially the economic stimulus measures he may implement.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last Thursday, Powell expressed caution about further rate cuts, which changed the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Interest rate futures show that the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped from 72% to 64%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has risen to 36%. This change reflects the market's expectations of economic growth and rising inflation that may be caused by Trump's policies.
The US dollar index rose 0.59% to 104.95 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.61%. The strong performance of consumer confidence also provided support for the US dollar. According to survey results, US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November. This data was released before the election and showed optimistic expectations of households for the future. The market is waiting for further clarity on US policies. Until then, the dollar will trade based on economic data and expectations of the Fed's easing path. This view emphasizes the importance of economic data in the current market environment.
Although Trump's economic policy proposals, including increasing trade tariffs, cracking down on illegal immigration, lowering taxes and relaxing business regulations, may promote economic growth and inflation, there is still great uncertainty about the specific implementation of policies in the short term. The market is trying to figure out the gap between Trump's policy promises and actual feasibility.
Trump's election may put the US fiscal health at greater risk, especially in the absence of effective measures to limit the fiscal deficit. This view further deepens the market's attention on future economic policies.
Geopolitical factors are also affecting the gold market. The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East may limit the correction space of gold prices in the medium and long term. Although the uncertainty of US domestic policies has exacerbated market volatility, the tense international situation has also provided a certain safe-haven demand for gold.
After the dust settled on the US presidential election, the gold market has seen significant fluctuations. Last Friday, the price of gold fell 0.8% and the weekly line fell 1.85%, hitting the largest weekly drop in more than five months.
Today, investors are paying attention to the daily support area of 2650 below. After gold has stabilized after a correction, continue to participate in gold bulls and pay attention to the continuation of the gold bull daily line.
At the same time, today is the US Veterans Day and the Armistice Day of World War I. Banks and bond markets in Europe and North America will be closed, but other markets will be open as usual. Investors need to pay special attention.
Risk Warning on Monday
Undecided, Japan convenes a special parliament to elect a prime minister.
Trump's victory not only triggered a sharp reaction in the market, but also made investors pay deep attention to the potential impact of future policies. Over the past month, the uncertainty risk of the general election has been the focus of the market, and the election has led to capital outflows from metals to other assets. This capital flow reflects the market's optimistic expectations for Trump's policies, especially the economic stimulus measures he may implement.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last Thursday, Powell expressed caution about further rate cuts, which changed the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Interest rate futures show that the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped from 72% to 64%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has risen to 36%. This change reflects the market's expectations of economic growth and rising inflation that may be caused by Trump's policies.
The US dollar index rose 0.59% to 104.95 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.61%. The strong performance of consumer confidence also provided support for the US dollar. According to survey results, US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November. This data was released before the election and showed optimistic expectations of households for the future. The market is waiting for further clarity on US policies. Until then, the dollar will trade based on economic data and expectations of the Fed's easing path. This view emphasizes the importance of economic data in the current market environment.
Although Trump's economic policy proposals, including increasing trade tariffs, cracking down on illegal immigration, lowering taxes and relaxing business regulations, may promote economic growth and inflation, there is still great uncertainty about the specific implementation of policies in the short term. The market is trying to figure out the gap between Trump's policy promises and actual feasibility.
Trump's election may put the US fiscal health at greater risk, especially in the absence of effective measures to limit the fiscal deficit. This view further deepens the market's attention on future economic policies.
Geopolitical factors are also affecting the gold market. The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East may limit the correction space of gold prices in the medium and long term. Although the uncertainty of US domestic policies has exacerbated market volatility, the tense international situation has also provided a certain safe-haven demand for gold.
After the dust settled on the US presidential election, the gold market has seen significant fluctuations. Last Friday, the price of gold fell 0.8% and the weekly line fell 1.85%, hitting the largest weekly drop in more than five months.
Today, investors are paying attention to the daily support area of 2650 below. After gold has stabilized after a correction, continue to participate in gold bulls and pay attention to the continuation of the gold bull daily line.
At the same time, today is the US Veterans Day and the Armistice Day of World War I. Banks and bond markets in Europe and North America will be closed, but other markets will be open as usual. Investors need to pay special attention.
Trade active
It is expected that gold will reach new heightsTrade closed: target reached
Gold adjustment is on the way
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