(NOT) 2150 BY 03/08, DRAFT 4, BUT 2087 STILL HIGHLY LIKELY for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

(NOT) 2150 BY 03/08, DRAFT 4, BUT 2087 STILL HIGHLY LIKELY

Introduction - Earlier this week we eliminated 2150 but was still aiming for 2125. Price action last 36 hours have lowered that ceiling under 2110. In theory, that could still hit. But if trend of "lowering ceiling" continues, we have to settle for 2087.

DETAILS - The lack of commitment by short term traders has price hanging around "almost" breakout position for a while now. Bulls are hesitant that is true, but bears are not showing up. So what now? So more of "sideways to up", BUT more "up" than "sideways". So that has overall trend shooting for 2087+ on or before 03/08 NFP.

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11:51 AM ET NOTES - 2032.73 and going nowhere quickly.
a) so yes, bulls still hanging around almost
b) but to hit 2087, all we need is the 7-day wave to turn
c) while it's taking very long to turn, the intermediate pressure is undeniable
d) so what now?
e) I don't have a "hi-light" this time bc there's too many combinations of moves now
f) that would produce the same result
g) all that is obvious is that:
1) the 7 day wave will turn
2) that means 2055, 2065 ...
3) and bc of bull's hesitant trend, probably check down here
4) and finally 2087 on or before 03/08 NFP
5) there is still enough in the barrel to hit 2110
6) but we have to believe that hesitant bulls will continue to lower the ceiling
7) and eventually drop to 2087-2095
8) I have 2035 calls and will hold as long as 2087 remains the favored target

Note

h) a great question is, can bulls raise the ceiling ahead of 03/08?
i) in this setup, it's not impossible but price action is fact
j) if bulls hit the boxes's levels early, then maybe
k) but the clock is ticking

Note

12:06 PM 2034.73, I did say I wanted 2042 closer earlier, to be sure.
a) yeah, that is to be sure we are gunning for 2125
b) I am a bit disappointed bc last 24 hours' price action has forced me to drop that target
c) but 2087 is very doable with this setup (and yes, I am including room for "sideways" too)

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d) in DRAFT 3, I put "2087" in the title for this reason
e) if the continues to drop we can still gun for 2087+

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12:55 PM ET - the first two boxes are probably too low
a) so if price exceeds first two boxes
b) that does not help raise the ceiling
c) it would be a bad estimate on my part

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a) for chart above
b) from 1 and 2-min bars, it say we can still have a decent close around 2037
c) that is not reflected in the that blue hi-light

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1:37 PM ET, I hate bitcoin and this is why:
a) so in DRAFT 2 I called for 58000 and that hit
b) so in DRAFT 3 i called for 62500 on or before 03/08
c) it already hit 64k today:

Note

d) AND WHILE BTC CONTINUES TO EXCEED TIME/PRICE TARGETS...
e) we have to continuously bring down gold targets 2150, 2125, now 2087-2110
f) and it's not out of this world that it DRAGS all the way to 2065
g) so I've said this before, if bitcoin didn't exist, half that money would go into gold
h) but just side note
i) meanwhile in dollar index:

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j) hold on, both of those bitcoin calls were in DRAFT 3
k) so now dx1!:

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l) and spx?
m) has drifted down .5% off of Friday's ATH
n) I said SPX would hit cointinuous all time highs
o) 7 days to go and I need it to hit ATH 3 of those days

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1:56 PM ET 2031.XX
a) gold's not going close 38, it gave up those curves in the last 15 min
b) looks like a 2034 close

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3:07 PM 2033.35 CAN WE PLEASE CLOSE 2035?
a) please?
b) like just one time!
c) I gave bitcoin 2 weeks to make 58000 from 51,500
d) it made it in 2 days, I had to push raise the ceiling to 62,500 AND SAID 63K was possible
e) but I would've said no to 64
f) 2 days later, 64,000 with 9 trading days to go
g) THAT IS STRENGTH, and gold has been junk for 10 weeks
h) missing EVERY POSSIBLE SETUP AND OPPORTUNITY to move up
i) this one is a legit one, not for 03/08 but for POST 03/20 FOMC
j) I stated before that no matter how high gold gets by 03/08 nfp it would get shot
k) ahead of 03/20 fomc
l) it's obvious I know, but how high you get MATTER
m) bc it would set the stage for blow off the top rally into April/May
n) but you can't set that up unless YOU RALLY INTO NFP
o) and you can't rally into NFP IF YOU CANNOT CLOSE ABOVE RESISTANCE
p) 7 trading days to go for gold and I have cut the ceiling twice (more like 3 times)
q) 9 trading days to go for bitcoin and raised the ceiling twice

Note

r) I had 3 choices back in the day
s) choose spx, gold, or bitcoin
t) gold seemed like a no brainer (inflation, debt blah blah blah blah bugs)
u) I regret not putting 10k into bitcoin at $100 (when I TOLD TO by smart people)
w) and I know a bookie that but 30k into just BECAUSE HE HAD THE MONEY
x) this story is about to end
y) have a good day

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6:07 PM ET, 2035.02, on 1 min bar, says 2039 in next 7 hours
a) that's the rough but STRONG SIGNAL
b) but, does it go lower FIRST???
c) hold on, I want to be more careful with this bc so many of you guys scalp than I thought
d) give me like 10 minutes

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e) 6:08 PM, so if it does go lower first the floor is like 2033.75
f) and it's not 7 hours it's more like 5 hours

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g) 6:17 PM, so I'm not a scalper, but if I was scalping right now this is a decent move:

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h) for chart above:
1) the box is floor and ceiling 33.8-38.8
2) odds favor some sideways first (on this scale 34.5-35.5)
3) and it's 6:19 as I type, this thing should hit by 9:30
i) one more thing

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j) the stop?

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a) for chart above:
b) for 2nd trade, lower ceiling to 2038 flat
c) but add 4 hours
d) but bold line is hard stop deal breaker
e) I don't love this one, bc the late move is always weaker
f) so it's there if you want to swing it, but Im not "recommending it"

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g) more so bc it's a confidence factor (for me)
h) the next one sketch out for a scalp better hit perfect

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i) that's 4 in 3 days I've been early
j) I'm always a bit too tight with these things
k) but I don't feel like I should loosen up bc there's not that much to gain

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8:57 PM ET 2035.90, odds of 2046+ before NY CLOSE tomorrow now better than 60%
a) but less than 70% (based on 10 trend maps)
b) I'm going to bed early so have a good night

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9:17 pm ET, probability contrast for S&P 500, see you in the morning:

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11:04 PM ET, First 4 boxes in chart at top, all four are about 16 hours too late.
a) meaning price will "keep that curve"
b) but be ahead of first 4 boxes

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c) so price will actually be much closer to DRAFT 3 through Monday
d) my extensions got wiped, I had to start over and just now realized that

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11:22 PM ET 2065 by Monday NY close
a) question is can we hit that by Sunday night
b) I think we can

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a) for chart above: we are moving to 2065 by Monday morning
b) Maybe Friday afternoon if early
c) so chart above is current extrapolation to Friday 9 AM
d) there's also a weaker route where vol compression keeps price under 2040
e) to Friday morning, then masive 25-30 pt spike
f) will cross that bridge if and when

Note

g) and light blue route, is an "up shift" in trend
h) in this situation price moves to 2039-ish FIRST
i) in which case the checkdown would push to 7 AM
j) and probably not as low (just on probability)
k) if light blue is the route, then odds of blue obviously even higher
l) if gray route, then afternoon would hit 43-44
m) THEME IS HIGHER
n) if under 2034 AT ANYTIME, BE SUSPICIOUS AF (especially if more than 10 minutes)
o) why?
p) not supposed to happen, there fore would be indicate meaningful trend change
q) I don't think it will happen, just be aware

Note

a) chart above concerning bitcoin
b) this is just an observation based on a similar pattern
c) I don't have "trend mapping" to support this call
d) BUT THIS IS BITCOIN, trend mapping WOULD FAIL because it has to make sense
e) and it doesn't even make sense at 64,000
f) that's exactly why my call is 71000
g) when?
h) Friday if early Sunday if late
i) only bitcoin can make such a move
j) (and silver majors in long term bull market)

Note

a) for chart above, if you are new to my posts...
b) please understand that short term out look shifts continuously
c) so short term expectations are only as good as
d) the frequency of updates
e) so if you are using my notes for scalping, be aware of this

Note

f) if price moves against expectations meaningfully
g) and I do not post update
h) trash the forecast and move on

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i) 2:52 AM, dark blue turns into gray
j) so does a HIGHER DARK BLUE, which hits 43-44 at 9 AM
k) that also favors turning into gray
l) NO CHANGE IN THEME, just the details

Note

1) sorry it didn't work out
2) I did my best to warn of a trend change, i.e.
>> n) if under 2034 AT ANYTIME, BE SUSPICIOUS AF (especially if more than 10 minutes)
>> o) why?
>> p) not supposed to happen, there fore would be indicate meaningful trend change
>> q) I don't think it will happen, just be aware
3) I went to sleep the third time at a cusp of trend change
4) but it's not what you think (if you are thinking bearish collapse)

Note

5) so first the short term waves:

Note

a) in chart above the red dotted shows what should happen to red wave
b) now that we broke under 2034 and held for so long
c) gray hi-light is what should happen to price next 16 hours, going more sideways

Note

d) finishing with chart above, 90-min bar
1) first black arrow is when bears gave up medium term bearish outcomes
2) second black arrow is where navy/purple turns
3) this puts A HARD FLOOR under prices FOR NEXT 3 WEEKS
4) third black arrow is when bears can have next meaningful move down (2015-ish)
5) and THAT is still 8 trading days away
6) so gray route is bearish extrapolation until 03/20 FOMC
7) so fourth black arrow is when the real bearish outcomes finally show up
8 its 3 WEEKS OUT IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT FOR BEARS

Note

9) now for bulls
10) there's two hi-lights, light blue and dark blue
11) I said the ceiling has been dropping
12) and now it is 2072-2096, but the annoying part is we've had 3 rejections now
13) that makes the likely outcome 2087 OR LESS if everything goes right for bulls
14) it's 2031.xx as I type

Note

15) I started this post with:
a) it looks like sideways to up BUT MORE UP THAN SIDEWAYS
b) now it looks like roughly the same amount of "up" and "sideways"
c) bulls will build out another spike up
d) but if they fail again it will look like MORE SIDEWAYS THAN UP
e) in which case the CEILING WILL DROP ALL THE WAY TO 2065 for 03/08

16) so I am wrapping up this post and let me say why:

Note

17) if you play chart at top, we're still in the first box
18) so yes, 2087 still on the table, even 2096
19) but while the there's a HARD FLOOR underneath
20) the trend says that ceiling will drop all the way to 2065
21) AND HOLD... AND REVERSE ... AND STALL TO FOMC

Note

22) so some guy said the other day that I am saying bitcoin goes up that means gold goes down
23) no, that's not what I mean
24) I was comparing the moves for btc-spx-dxy vs gold
25) but my point at the top of this page is WHAT STRENGTH MEANS
26) I've raised bitcoin's targets 3 TIMES THIS WEEK
27) THAT is strength
28) and its baseline position no where near gold's position for 56 year chart
29) I've cut gold's ceiling FOUR TIMES now the last week
30) I'm not bearish gold, but its going nowhere for a while

Note

31) this move this morning has made my rally signal, which was a strong signal
32) now a soft, not-so strong signal
33) if you've been following me, got the e-mail that shot down my last proposal
34) so I am out of reasons to keep writing and posting
35) this ends this post, and my project in totality

Trade closed: stop reached

36) hey thanks for reading my material
37) really hope I didn't waste your time
38) but I am 100% done and all out of ideas
39) that guy that hates my writing can be happy now! yay!!!
40) I saw the spike to 2043 just now

41) you are going to need more than that to correct the damage this morning
42) to correct the damage this morning, you need hit AND CLOSE 2048
43) have a good one!

Note

a) for chart above, I knew my proposals would get shot down
b) so in order to fund this thing forward, I need gold to SET ITSELF UP
c) because I've made the mistake of IGNORING BITCOIN this whole time
d) but at 2045.xx as I type, WE ARE WORSE OFF THAN YESTERDAY (trend wise)
e) so yesterday it was 2087-2110
f) today it's 2077-2096
g) why does this matter so much?
h) bc to have a market worth paying time for after 3/20 fomc...
i) we need to hit 2087 AND HOLD IT FOR A FEW DAYS...
j) that's why I said we really need 58 today to correct this mess
k) and right now at 45.xx, odds say
l) 35 is closer than 55 (even though they are each 10 apart)

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and finally

Note

12:38 PM ET, For reference you'll see why I am annoyed:
1) replay DRAFT 2 (in which light gray is from DRAFT 1)

2) and replay DRAFT 3

2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 3, 2087 IS HIGHLY, HIGHLY LIKELY

a) for those replays:
b) if I don't "update trend engine"...
c) based on DRAFTS 1 AND 2, we are on time
d) but DRAFT 3 shows that we ARE OBVIOUS LATE
e) and I hate late moves bc you cannot trust them to follow through
f) and when they do, there is always AN ANNOYING REVERSAL NEXT
g) in DRAFT 4 (this draft) I didn't make a hi-light bc there were too many of them
h) but the up date now looks UGLY AF!!
i) I am trying to find a reason to keep going but I don't have one!
j) 45 is not enough we need more

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2/29 1:06 PM I GOT A SOFT SIGNAL FOR 2063 in 24 hours
a) this has to be managed live
b) what does that mean?
c) that means we need 2-min bar charts
d) I will post that here
e) since it's a 2-min bar chart it has to be a PRIVATE POST
f) you can't search for it and it won't be on my avatar page
g) you have to come to this page and click on the actual chart for it
h) we really need this to correct the curves
i) bc I can't see the waves getting "corrected" in time to make 2087
j) yes 2087 and 96 still live, but possible doesn't mean probable, it looks more like 2072-78 is the target for 03/08
k) we need bulls to change that
l) and they have 24 hours and a soft signal to do it

Note

a) in chart above, add a box with dimensions 2039-64
b) right side is 2 PM ET (NEW YORK TIME) tomorrow
c) then make a line from today's top to right corner
d) that line is our ceiling
e) price needs to do 3 things
1) finish check down (odds of "low is in" is not good),
and we expect 2039 to hold in case of check down
2) price then moves to break gray line
probably not until Friday AM around 8:30 AM EVENT TIME
3) and finally make 2063 by 1:30 PM ET, tomorrow afternoon

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4) continuing with chart above
5) that's rough draft of the move
6) nothing expected until the 3 AM sellers start selling
7) will post 2-min bar draft after midnight
8) nothing interesting until then

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9) please don't trade off that chart, it's just a ROUGH DRAFT
10) it's only there to illustrate overall look of the move
11) it's not meant to help you scalp
12 just trying to be clear about that

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13) I'm too busy right now
14) will add notes tonight

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11:14 IN ER TONIGHT. Nor going to make it back in time.

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a) in chart above: didn't get a chance work on route more
b) but theme is the same we are heading for 2063 today
c) the micro curves still showing a check down for 38-39 next
d) if you've followed me for some time, 3-AM ET is pre-market in London
e) where all the switch up/trend change happens
f) that seems to be the case this time too
g) so as of 2:41 AM ET, trend engine still showing 'down and up
h) that's all I can comment right now because I am so tired
i) good night

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and looks like dip it is:

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and another one for jesuscrisissuperstar:

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3:47 AM ET 2040.XX
a) I've said this before but once again
b) the only way to get it all right is to be up all the time (impossible)
c) so are we still aiming for 63?
d) yeah, but we may have to hit 36 before bears from the UK surrender
e) I gotta get some sleep and will probably oversleep NY open
f) will add notes 9 or 10

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3:55 AM ET, THE L IN LBMA, STANDS FOR LONDON, NOT NEW YORK.

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a) for chart above that's pure coincidence!
b) yes!
c) pure like 10 out of 11 sessions, pretty good batting average I say
d) do your self
e) it's not like I'm "making this up"

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8:24 AM

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a) for chart above:
b) the short-term immediate picture is right now 51/49 bullish
c) meaning even though we are highter this morning
d) the short term picture IS BARELY BULLISH
e) while the medium term picture still says UP AND UP
f) meanwhile....

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8:52 TO SUM THIS ALL UP
1) I have been rejected by developers on my last proposal
2) and the bull market I've been looking for so long doesn't look like it's coming
3) bc bulls have to MAKE 2087 AND HOLD IT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
4) to have this work out AFTER 03/20 FOMC
5) so I really did try as hard as I could, wait as long as I could
6) and my personal situation is not helping at all so...
7) there's NO ROUTE FORWARD and that's mainly because
8) they ALREADY HAVE WHAT I'M TRYING TO MAKE
9) so ...

Note

10. for those that followed me for so long, thank you for reading my material
11. I REALLY hope I didn't waste your time
12. for those that I mislead, I'm sorry if I hurt you, that wasn't my intention
13. but it's the nature of trading, I'm always going to put my money first...
14. that's all there is to it
15. my IRL subscription expires 03/07, that's net Thursday
16. so this WAS the last attempt to make everything work
17. have a good one ok? I mean really mean that.
18. trade defensively, and I wish you guys the best in your endeavors

Note

BUT, JUST MAYBE, GOD JUST MAYBE: REPLAY DRAFT 3:

Note

a) so if you replay DRAFT 3, price swung DOWN VS HI-LIGHT
b) but IS NOW ABOVE IT ... so THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS WORKING OUT
c) but again, while we re 65 as we speak...
d) IT ONLY MATTERS IF WE HOLD IT!!
e) a day or two BEFORE CHECKDOWN
f) why?
g) bc that SHIFTS THE ENTIRE CURVE UP
h) so we can have a shot not just at 2087
i) but 2110 would open up again
j) but would mean this needs to happen:

Note

k) so we art 68.xx as I type now
l) I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH FOR US HERE...
m) bc I checked out at 63 already
n) but replay DRAFT 1:

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o) for chart above!
p) 2069 as I type...
q) DRAFT 1 is the draft that has 2150 possible!
r) and I remembered I had dropped the ceiling all the way to 2072-84
s) BUT A CLOSE AT 2069+ TODAY WOULD PUSH THAT CEILING BACK UP!!
t) to 2096-2125

Note

u) bc this morning 1-min bar was still 50/50
v) so trend engine was calling for a close between 45 and 63
w) 70 NOW!!

Trade closed: target reached

THIS POST HAS ENDED! CONTINUE HERE IN DRAFT 1 (original draft from 2/21)

Note

12:02 PM ET -- that's all from me today, gotta take care of family next
a) 2082.xx as I type, and to shoot for 2150, we really need 2079+ close
b) obviously 2087 can hit today, but CLOSING 2079+ IS NOT OBVIOUS!
c) it is Friday, and the bears still haven't played their last card!

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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