1. Gold fundamentals analysis:
On Tuesday (July 22), spot gold rose strongly for the second consecutive day, and once again broke through the psychological barrier of $3,400/ounce, attracting market attention. This rise mainly benefited from the continued fermentation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the market's risk aversion sentiment heated up, and the surge in gold demand.
However, in the medium and long term, whether gold prices can continue to rise depends on the further development of the situation:
If the situation eases and risk aversion subsides, gold will face correction pressure;
If the conflict intensifies, it may trigger a new round of risk aversion, and gold prices may even break through the historical extreme target of $4,000/ounce.
In addition, the US dollar index will maintain high volatility in the short term, and the decline in US bond yields will also support gold prices.
2. Technical analysis of gold:
From the technical structure, gold still maintains a short-term oscillation and bullish pattern, and is currently running within the rising channel:
It rose slightly in the early Asian session on Tuesday, but was still limited by the 3401 line;
It fell back to test the 3382-3383 support area (trend line + channel lower rail resonance position), and temporarily obtained effective support;
🔎Key technical position reference:
Technical point description
Upper resistance 3420, 3430, 3445-3455 (key point)
Lower support 3382-3385 (key support), 3365 (risk signal of breaking down)
Structural judgment The rising channel has not been broken, and it is still bullish
3. Gold intraday operation strategy (July 23):
✅ Operation idea: mainly low-level longs, supplemented by high-level shorts on rebounds
✅ Long-order stable strategy 3380-3385 Long in batches Stop loss 3372 The first target above is 3412; the second target is 3430 Key support area, channel bottom resonance, low-long main idea
⚠️ Aggressive buying and long. After the correction and stabilization near 3400, you can lightly long. Stop loss below 3388 3420-3430. If it stabilizes above 3430 before the US market, it is expected to continue to rise
⚠️ Short shorting 3445-3455 area short shorting above 3460 3420-3410 short-term strong pressure position, suitable for short-term correction
Fourth, risk control and operation suggestions:
Operation must strictly set stop loss, control position, and avoid losses caused by high-level shocks;
Gold market often breaks out in the US market, it is recommended to focus on this time window;
If 3380 is lost and effectively broken, it may turn into a weak shock structure, and the idea should be adjusted at that time;
Geopolitical news is sudden, it is recommended to flexibly adjust positions to avoid excessive heavy positions and gamble on the market.
✅ Today's strategy summary:
Main theme: Bullish but not chasing the rise, mainly buying on pullbacks, and assisting with rebounds and high altitudes.
The current gold price is fluctuating upward with the support of 3382. Once it stands firm at 3430, it is likely to hit the 3450 area. It is recommended that traders mainly arrange long positions around the support, and consider shorting if it approaches 3445-3455. Overall, treat it with a bullish mindset, but maintain flexible defense.
Trade active
Analysis and operation strategies of the latest gold market trends:
1. Core driving factors (news)
Risk aversion dominates:
Market focus is on the deadline for US tariff negotiations with China on August 1. If the deadlock continues, gold may continue to be strong; if there is a breakthrough, gold prices may fall under pressure.
The Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting (this week) is a key variable. If a dovish signal is released (such as hinting at a rate cut), it will be good for gold; if a hawkish statement is made, it may suppress gold prices.
The weak US dollar supports gold prices:
The US dollar index fell to 97.54 (a two-week low), and US Treasury yields fell simultaneously, weakening the attractiveness of the US dollar and driving gold prices up.
Technical buying boosts:
After gold broke through the key psychological level of $3,400, stop-loss buying and trend-following funds were triggered to enter the market, further pushing up prices.
2. Key technical signals
Daily level:
Strong bulls: three consecutive positive lines, prices broke through the upper track of the Bollinger band (overbought area), MACD golden cross, and RSI approached 70 (overbought).
Key points:
Support: 3400-3410 (previous high turns into support)
Resistance: 3438 (intraday high) → 3450 (next target)
Potential risks: If the daily line closes negative, a correction may be initiated (target 3375-3350).
4-hour level:
Short-term peak signal: After rising to 3438 in the early trading, it fell back, forming an upper shadow line. If it falls below 3405, it may fall back to 3385.
Bull-bear watershed: 3400 US dollars (if it holds, it will fluctuate at a high level, and if it falls below, it will turn weak).
3. Today's operation strategy
Overall idea:
Short-term is mainly high-altitude, supplemented by low-long, focusing on the breakthrough direction of the 3400-3450 range.
Specific suggestions:
Short on rebound (high risk, need to be cautious):
Entry area: 3435-3445 (previous high pressure area)
Target: 3410 → 3400 (break down to see 3385)
Stop loss: above 3450
Long on pullback (sound strategy):
Entry area: 3400-3410 (strong support area)
Target: 3430-3440
Stop loss: below 3395
Alternative strategy:
If it breaks through 3450 strongly, you can chase long with a light position, with a target of 3470-3480.
If it falls below 3400, short after the rebound is confirmed, with a target of 3385-3375.
IV. Risk warning
Beware of sudden changes in market sentiment: trade negotiations or news from the Federal Reserve may cause sharp fluctuations.
Technical overbought correction needs: If risk aversion cools down, gold prices may experience a rapid correction.
Strict risk control: The current market is volatile, it is recommended to operate with a light position and set a stop loss.
Conclusion: Gold is still strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a correction from a technical perspective. It is recommended to short cautiously at rallies and buy at key support levels, waiting for further guidance from the market.
Trade closed: target reached
Where will gold go tomorrow after a $60 plunge?
The storm after the gold safe-haven carnival, the long and short battles at the 3380 life and death line
Fundamentals: The safe-haven feast was suddenly hit by a "black swan", and gold collapsed by $60 from a high!
Today (July 23), the gold market suffered a dramatic reversal-spot gold crashed from a high of $3439, plummeting $60 in a single day to $3379, creating the largest drop in nearly two weeks! Behind this wave of "high-diving" is the sudden attack of multiple negative factors:
The US-Japan trade agreement "withdraws" safe-haven demand
The US and Japan suddenly reached a tariff reduction agreement, market risk sentiment rebounded, and the attractiveness of gold as a "crisis insurance" dropped by 35%. The "Eagle Shadow" of the Federal Reserve reappeared, and the US dollar fought back
US Treasury Secretary Bensont urgently refuted the rumor that "Powell will not be fired", easing political uncertainty, and US Treasury yields soared (10-year bonds broke through 4.38%), and the cost of holding gold increased sharply by 35.
The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut in July have approached zero, and the "hawkish stick" hit the bulls hard.
Technical selling "adds insult to injury"
Gold prices encountered stubborn resistance at $3,439 (near the high point on June 16), and a large number of profit-taking orders fled collectively, triggering algorithmic trading selling.
"Buy expectations, sell facts" - although the long-term bullish logic has not changed (central bank gold purchases + weak US dollar), short-term corrections after overbought are inevitable.
▶ My point of view:
This wave of gold plunge is like a "hangover after carnival" - geopolitical risks and expectations of rate cuts have pushed up the bubble, but the market will eventually return to reality. However, the 3380-3370 area (50-day moving average + previous high support) will be the "last line of defense" for bulls. If it is lost, panic selling may point directly to 3330-3350!
2. Technical aspect: The "guillotine" of bulls has appeared, and 3380 has become the life and death line!
Daily level:
“Structure” pattern confirmation: yesterday’s high and fall back long upper shadow + today’s big negative line, suggesting a short-term peak.
Key support:
3380-3370 (previous high conversion position + psychological barrier) → if it breaks, look down to 3347 (50-day moving average).
Resistance: 3400-3405 (rebound high, new short-term defense line).
4-hour level:
MACD dead cross + RSI falls below 50, short-term momentum turns to bearish 57.
If the rebound does not exceed 3400, it may form a “falling flag” and continue the decline.
Technical aspects have sounded the alarm! 3380 is the “buy-short watershed” - if it holds, it will fluctuate at a high level, and if it falls below, it will start a deep correction. But don’t forget that the long-term trend of gold is still “buy on dips”, and 3330-3300 may be the “gold pit” for medium-term bulls!
Operation strategy: How to “snatch food from the tiger’s mouth” after a sharp drop?
Aggressive short selling (higher risk)
Rebound 3400-3405, try short with a light position, stop loss 3415, target 3380→3360.
Break below 3370, chase short, target 3347-3330 (strict stop loss 3385).
Steady low long (wait for stabilization)
Try long (30% position) when 3380-3370 is touched for the first time, stop loss 3360, target 3400.
3330-3300 area, arrange medium-term long orders in batches, stop loss 3280, target 3400.
Breakthrough strategy
Stop loss on short orders when 3405 is stable, chase long orders, target 3430.
Don't blindly buy the bottom after the plunge! Wait for the reversal signal before taking action.
Wednesday's plunge reminds us that there is no "forever rising" asset in the market! Even if you are bullish in the long term, you need to be awed by volatility in the short term. Strict stop loss is the rule of survival, especially to avoid "heavy betting on direction" in an emotional state!
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.