Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short
Updated

NordKern - XAUUSD Insight

217
NordKern | Simplified Insight XAUUSD Short Opportunity Ahead

Gold saw a sharp surge in price today, primarily driven by political headlines that temporarily shook market sentiment. To be specific:
📅 Jul 16, 2025 – 16:56 CET
CBS Reports: Trump asked Republican lawmakers whether he should fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
This headline alone triggered an intraday spike of +$52/oz in gold as markets priced in increased macro and institutional risk.

As previously stated "Context Matters."

While the President cannot remove the Fed Chair without cause, even the suggestion introduces uncertainty and undermines confidence in the Fed’s independence especially ahead of a high-stakes election cycle.

However, further developments quickly followed:
📅 Jul 16, 2025 – 17:58 CET
Trump: “Firing Powell is highly unlikely.”
📅 Jul 16, 2025 – 18:06 CET
Trump: “Reports on me firing Powell are not true.”
With this clarification, the initial rally appears overstretched and sentiment-driven, leaving room for a corrective pullback as the market digests the full picture.


Trade Setup - Short Bias

Parameters:

Entry: 3356.40
Stop Loss: 3690.30
Take Profit: 3322.00


Key Notes:

- The spike was headline-driven and not supported by policy shift or macro data.
- Trump’s denial removes much of the political risk premium that had been briefly priced in.
- Watch for momentum fading near resistance and confirmation via intraday structure.


This remains a tactically driven setup. Manage risk appropriately and stay alert for any renewed political developments.
Trade closed: target reached
XAUUSD has now reached our key level of interest, following price action driven by yesterday’s political headlines. Initial reports suggested that former President Trump had asked Republican lawmakers whether he should remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These claims were later denied, with Trump publicly stating the reports were untrue.

As anticipated, the initial rally was fully faded, and gold has since moved lower, aligning with our bearish outlook.

With price now testing this critical zone, we are evaluating whether further downside is likely or if this level may attract renewed buying interest and potential reversal.

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