NFP Possible opportunity and trading setups
Today's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following.
In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now.
The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction.
US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2)
EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼
US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2)
NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼
-Extra notes-
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup...
They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all.
Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above.
The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above.
Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now.
The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction.
US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2)
EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼
US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2)
NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼
-Extra notes-
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup...
They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all.
Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above.
The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above.
Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
Steve G20
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