Long

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

Updated

HEADER - I'm too slow. Should've gotten this up 2 hours ago.

SUMMARY - I was in the middle of standardizing a regression set, so didn't have enough time.

DETAILS - I'm too slow on both gold and silver, that much I know. Links to previous posts below. Will add if I have time.

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NOTES 1) The black path is from previous work

NOTES 2) The boxes are the update.

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NOTES 3) This work is incomplete.

NOTES 4) It's heading for 1800 by 11/23.

NOTES 5) If it's too strong like RUMORS PART 2, we will cross that bridge when we get there.

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NOTES 6) HERE'S PART 2:

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NOTES 7) FWIW, I have decent conviction (at this time) that it won't break 1800 that early.

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NOTES 8) The reason that would be bad (if it's too fast) is that type of price action very often leads to 2-way vol like an extra A-B-C leg down.

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NOTES 9) IT'S STILL TOO SLOW. I will post 3-7 when I have time next.

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NOTES 10) I don't have a legit reason for PART 2 not playing out at this point in time. Silver has not been impressive considering gold strenth.

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NOTES 11) 9:44 PM, Thursday 11/10 UPDATE
a) PART 2 trend means continuous spike to 1970 by 11/23
b) if it hits 1800 in a couple of days, then 1875 would be likely by 11/17 (one week from now)
c) that's what the line by line say for example:

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c1) so the chart above is the "line by line spread" that made PART 2 "forecast-able"
c2) it's on a different bar size vs when I drew it so here...

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c3) so the chart above is 90 min bar to see the detailing example
c4) the "spread" completes ahead of 11/23
c5) so orginally, it was possible to hit 1970 (but that was before the post-FOMC checkdown)
c6) that was why in PART 2, I stated "that it was only the favorite FOR THAT DAY"
c7) because of the mess that it would have to "undo" to get all the way up
c8) so obviously 1800 is within reach
c9) the issue is what next and when?

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d) nothing in the trends LONGER THAN THE 2 CHARTS JUST POSTED ABOVE say that we can't hit 1970 following the path drawn in PART 2
e) it is the trends specifically in those two charts THAT SAY THAT WE SHOULDN'T
f) because of the "WAY THAT THE SPREAD IS SET UP" we should have something like this:

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f1) so 1875 is going to get hit in ALL EXTRAPOLATIONS, it's just a matter of when (now to 02/20/23)
f2) that includes all bearish outcomes that leads to mother of all crashes
f3) but the issue I cannot disprove is the PART 2 outcome (as fast as possible)
f4) so where does that leave us?

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g) here:

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g1) so for the chart above is what I thought this morning would happen
g2) BUT AGAIN, I CAN'T DISPROVE PART 2
g3) but should PART 2 be favored?
g4) honestly don't know here
g5) I have to say, that I wouldn't be surprised to see 1875 BEFORE DECEMBER
g6) BUT IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN, ODDS FAVOR BY MONDAY 11/21

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h) so today's price action has me uneasy bc
h1) silver is what I want strong
h2) if we have strong gold, and so-so silver, especially in PART-2 outcome with so-so silver
h3) that would REALLY set up for this:

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i) which is what I've been trying to get at for a couple of weeks
j) it's ok to have STRONG GOLD, as long as SILVER IS REALLY STRONG
k) NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO HAVE GOLD MOVE 3% WHILE SILVER MOVES LESS THAN 2%
l) with all that said, I won't post 3-7 for gold bc it wastes more time I should be spending making sense of silver chart
m) good luck

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BTW -
1) the notes in PART 2 had the periods right, but with wrong bar size
2) so all the periods I mentioned in days should be half that
3) meaning if I said 18 months, that means 9 months, or 200 days would be 100 days, so on...

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COME TO THINK OF IT -

1) that trade reco pre-fomc not too shabby
2) that was to either straddle (at 1645 or so) OR long 1670 break with 1645 stop
3) right on BOTH COUNTS
4) my gut say we have a setup for TRADE OF THE DECADE coming (gold rally)
5) we just have to clarify this area from now to 02/20 and then surviving feb-aprill checkdown

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QUICK GOLD VS SILVER LEVELS:
1) if gold hits 1800 (it's 1755 now)...
2) you want silver ABOVE 22.50, the higher the better
3) what do need to see?
4) I need to see silver at 30 in february, it's 21.75 now
5) that's not a typo, not a stretch, that's real

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6) just jumped to 21.86 as I typed this, I feel better now

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SOME FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

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7:42 AM 11/11 --- TO SUM IT UP:
1) that's the long way of saying that PART 2 HAS TO BE THE FAVORITE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
2) but it's not PART 2 version of the move that's the favorite, it's this one..
3) from TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 5:

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4) which in fact... was suggested in RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1

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5) right here, replay this:

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6) that was from 9/28, it was a bit off, yeah but...
7) THAT WAS WAY EARLY ON THE MOVE... I mean it would've been impossible to get right THAT early
8) to come full circle 9/28 was also when THAT MONEY left discussed a few charts above (see notes starting with "second" and "third")

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9) what do we need to keep the bullish trend???
10) not a giant gold move, WE NEED A GIANT SILVER MOVE

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11) that's it for gold in the coming month from me, I need a definitive answer from silver
12) use PART 2 or TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 5 for guide if you need one
13) have a good weekend

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AND FINALLY HERE IS 3-7, IN MUCH EASIER TO CONSUME FORMAT:

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-7, NEXT 10 DAYS

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discord.gg/EpdX5gj7

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