Bulls take advantage of the momentum to counterattack, but the r
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ReIQz5C0/
Wednesday's open continued Tuesday's downward trend. After the European market fluctuated and rose, the U.S. market, under the influence of a series of positive economic data, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the gold price rose sharply to the $2,326 line, and then turned positive.
The number of U.S. ADP jobs, known as "small non-agricultural employment", increased more than expected in April, indicating that the U.S. job market remains strong. After slowing down late last year, the average pace of hiring has accelerated over the past three months, almost matching the pace seen in the first half of 2023. The good news is that wage growth continues to slow.
U.S. ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2023, higher than the 175,000 expected. However, that was slightly lower than the upwardly revised 208,000 in March.
At the same time, the ADP wage indicator showed that year-on-year wage growth for employed workers was essentially flat at 5% in April, the lowest level in years; wage growth for those changing jobs fell to 9.3% from 10.1% in March. , but still higher than the level at the beginning of the year. This provides some welcome news amid several other signs that inflation is more resilient than many economists and policymakers expected.
Economic data released on the same day showed that the U.S. manufacturing industry had a weak start to the second quarter, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI sales price inflation in April falling to a three-month low. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, said that overall, producers also appear confident enough in the business outlook to continue adding employment at a rate comparable to the average of the past two years and investing further. Regarding operational capabilities. From an inflation perspective, it is also reassuring that commodity prices are rising at a slower pace than the 11-month high set in March. Growth remains high by historical standards, however, well above the average of the decade before the pandemic, as businesses continue to pass on higher commodity prices to customers.
Fed officials chose to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. They noted in the statement that risks related to achieving the Fed's dual mandate of focusing on employment and inflation have become more balanced over the past year. While they acknowledged progress on inflation, they also acknowledged that recent data showed progress had stalled.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at Thursday's post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference that it may take the Fed longer than previously expected to gain enough confidence in the trajectory of inflation to begin cutting interest rates.
"We have stated that we do not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until we are more confident that inflation will continue to move toward 2%," he said. Previously, the Fed chose to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged and released new stimulus measures. inflation concerns. "It may take longer than previously expected to gain greater confidence," Powell said.
Powell insisted that the data did not convince policymakers that inflation was falling toward the Fed's 2% target, making a rate cut unlikely at this time. He also did not hint at the possibility of a rate hike. However, Powell stopped short of suggesting a rate cut this year or that rates have peaked, as he has previously said.
The Fed may not be confident enough to cut interest rates yet, but it's worth noting that the idea of raising rates doesn't appear to be on the agenda yet. Powell's comments reassured investors who feared the Fed might respond more aggressively to signs that inflation progress is stalling.
Overall, the general meaning is: the interest rate cut has been delayed, but not derailed. This is a very cautious hawkish statement and the next step is unlikely to be a rate hike. This also makes this press conference far less hawkish than market expectations, at least interest rate hikes are not on the table. This statement caused the U.S. dollar to plummet and stimulated a sharp rise in gold prices, once exceeding $30!
The "Global Gold Demand Trend Report for the First Quarter of 2024" released by the World Gold Council on April 30 showed that global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, the Bank of India’s gold reserves increased by 19 tons in the first quarter of this year. The Reserve Bank of India purchased a net 16 tonnes of gold last year. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the Reserve Bank of India purchased more gold than it did in all of last year.
This message is timely. This news can only temporarily affect the price and will not continue to affect the trend. Market prices will eventually return to technical trends. The current market price is blocked at the $2,327 level. This does not rule out the possibility that market prices will fall back under pressure.
For two weeks in a row, we have defined the current trend as a downward correction following a bullish rally. Because the previous upward cycle was too large and lasted too long, it would be difficult to complete the correction in the short term. This round of adjustment must be a substantive adjustment. Downward, long-term adjustment, there is currently only one negative line on the weekly line, which is not enough to complete the entire upward correction, and the adjustment cycle has not yet continued.
In the downward correction of the secondary rhythm, it is very easy to form a double top within a small cycle. Currently, 2327 has been drawn twice. The inhibitory effect here is likely to inhibit price stagnation and rebound, thereby exiting the decline. The short term is bearish around this line!
International golden thinking layout, for reference only:
Short term: short at current price 2325/26, stop loss 2333, target 2312/2300
Wednesday's open continued Tuesday's downward trend. After the European market fluctuated and rose, the U.S. market, under the influence of a series of positive economic data, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, the gold price rose sharply to the $2,326 line, and then turned positive.
The number of U.S. ADP jobs, known as "small non-agricultural employment", increased more than expected in April, indicating that the U.S. job market remains strong. After slowing down late last year, the average pace of hiring has accelerated over the past three months, almost matching the pace seen in the first half of 2023. The good news is that wage growth continues to slow.
U.S. ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2023, higher than the 175,000 expected. However, that was slightly lower than the upwardly revised 208,000 in March.
At the same time, the ADP wage indicator showed that year-on-year wage growth for employed workers was essentially flat at 5% in April, the lowest level in years; wage growth for those changing jobs fell to 9.3% from 10.1% in March. , but still higher than the level at the beginning of the year. This provides some welcome news amid several other signs that inflation is more resilient than many economists and policymakers expected.
Economic data released on the same day showed that the U.S. manufacturing industry had a weak start to the second quarter, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI sales price inflation in April falling to a three-month low. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, said that overall, producers also appear confident enough in the business outlook to continue adding employment at a rate comparable to the average of the past two years and investing further. Regarding operational capabilities. From an inflation perspective, it is also reassuring that commodity prices are rising at a slower pace than the 11-month high set in March. Growth remains high by historical standards, however, well above the average of the decade before the pandemic, as businesses continue to pass on higher commodity prices to customers.
Fed officials chose to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. They noted in the statement that risks related to achieving the Fed's dual mandate of focusing on employment and inflation have become more balanced over the past year. While they acknowledged progress on inflation, they also acknowledged that recent data showed progress had stalled.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at Thursday's post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference that it may take the Fed longer than previously expected to gain enough confidence in the trajectory of inflation to begin cutting interest rates.
"We have stated that we do not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until we are more confident that inflation will continue to move toward 2%," he said. Previously, the Fed chose to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged and released new stimulus measures. inflation concerns. "It may take longer than previously expected to gain greater confidence," Powell said.
Powell insisted that the data did not convince policymakers that inflation was falling toward the Fed's 2% target, making a rate cut unlikely at this time. He also did not hint at the possibility of a rate hike. However, Powell stopped short of suggesting a rate cut this year or that rates have peaked, as he has previously said.
The Fed may not be confident enough to cut interest rates yet, but it's worth noting that the idea of raising rates doesn't appear to be on the agenda yet. Powell's comments reassured investors who feared the Fed might respond more aggressively to signs that inflation progress is stalling.
Overall, the general meaning is: the interest rate cut has been delayed, but not derailed. This is a very cautious hawkish statement and the next step is unlikely to be a rate hike. This also makes this press conference far less hawkish than market expectations, at least interest rate hikes are not on the table. This statement caused the U.S. dollar to plummet and stimulated a sharp rise in gold prices, once exceeding $30!
The "Global Gold Demand Trend Report for the First Quarter of 2024" released by the World Gold Council on April 30 showed that global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, the Bank of India’s gold reserves increased by 19 tons in the first quarter of this year. The Reserve Bank of India purchased a net 16 tonnes of gold last year. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the Reserve Bank of India purchased more gold than it did in all of last year.
This message is timely. This news can only temporarily affect the price and will not continue to affect the trend. Market prices will eventually return to technical trends. The current market price is blocked at the $2,327 level. This does not rule out the possibility that market prices will fall back under pressure.
For two weeks in a row, we have defined the current trend as a downward correction following a bullish rally. Because the previous upward cycle was too large and lasted too long, it would be difficult to complete the correction in the short term. This round of adjustment must be a substantive adjustment. Downward, long-term adjustment, there is currently only one negative line on the weekly line, which is not enough to complete the entire upward correction, and the adjustment cycle has not yet continued.
In the downward correction of the secondary rhythm, it is very easy to form a double top within a small cycle. Currently, 2327 has been drawn twice. The inhibitory effect here is likely to inhibit price stagnation and rebound, thereby exiting the decline. The short term is bearish around this line!
International golden thinking layout, for reference only:
Short term: short at current price 2325/26, stop loss 2333, target 2312/2300
Trade active
Gold is falling as expectedTrade active
After short-term profits are made, we will continue to make plansTrade active
Gold is approaching our goalTrade active
Gold rebound continues to be bearishTrade active
Congratulations to everyone on your profit. Gold has reached our first profit-taking position near 2310.Trade active
We wait for the gold rebound to give the next signalTrade active
Gold is very close to our next take profit position. Congratulations in advance to everyone on your big profit today.Trade active
Congratulations everyone, today we have perfectly reached the second take-profit positionTrade active
100% hit twice today
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.