Gold Market Outlook Post Tariff Response & Pre-NFP Volatility
Overview: Last week, gold experienced a major shift as it broke from its recent bullish structure and sold off sharply. This was largely triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions stemming from former U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff remarks and China's reactive stance. These developments rattled risk sentiment and sparked volatility, with gold traditionally a safe-haven asset becoming a battlefield of both fundamental and technical influences.
While long-term fundamentals continue to support gold's bullish case due to global economic uncertainty, short-term volatility has introduced room for corrective movement. Notably, the size of recent price moves (1000+ pips in a single day) indicates high liquidity grabs and institutional rebalancing.
Technical Breakdown:
Weekly Chart:
Gold closed the week with a bearish hammer, signaling potential for deeper retracement after failing to sustain its move above the key 3057 level. The rejection came after briefly breaking resistance at 2955. This structure opens the door for further liquidity grabs and a healthy correction within the macro uptrend.
Daily Chart:
The daily time frame maintains a bullish structure seen by the daily trend line. Price respected the 3018 demand zone, creating a potential short-term base for a retest of the 3057 area of interest. This level also aligns with a 1-hour wickless candle, likely to be filled in future price action.
Intraday & 1-Hour Chart:
A visible trendline rejection capped the upside for now, with the 15-min engulfing candle and the 3128 resistance kicking off Friday’s massive 1000-pip sell-off. That we took in the group.
4-Hour Chart & Fibonacci Analysis:
Measuring the most recent impulse leg, price has retraced to the 0.88 Fibonacci level, suggesting a corrective phase could be nearing completion. A move towards the golden zone (3072–3090) is expected, which also aligns with the 50 EMA.
Key Support for Re-Entry:
Should further downside occur, the 2988 zone stands out as a high-probability area for long re-entries. This level is confluence-rich:
Retest of the daily trendline
1-Hour demand zone
4-Hour trendline retest
Strong support/resistance flip
Key Fundamentals to Watch:
Quarter-End Portfolio Rebalancing & Earnings Season
With stock market participants repositioning, gold may be used for hedging or liquidation depending on sentiment.
Geopolitical Risk (Trump, China, Tariffs)
Ongoing discussions and political headlines could reignite fear-based buying. Be ready for sharp intraday reactions.
Federal Reserve Speeches & FOMC Minutes
Traders will look for clues on potential interest rate cuts or pauses. Hawkish rhetoric could weigh on gold short term.
CPI Data (U.S. Inflation) – Wednesday, April 10th
Critical for rate path expectations. Sticky inflation may keep the Fed hawkish, increasing gold volatility. A surprise miss would benefit gold.
Overview: Last week, gold experienced a major shift as it broke from its recent bullish structure and sold off sharply. This was largely triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions stemming from former U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff remarks and China's reactive stance. These developments rattled risk sentiment and sparked volatility, with gold traditionally a safe-haven asset becoming a battlefield of both fundamental and technical influences.
While long-term fundamentals continue to support gold's bullish case due to global economic uncertainty, short-term volatility has introduced room for corrective movement. Notably, the size of recent price moves (1000+ pips in a single day) indicates high liquidity grabs and institutional rebalancing.
Technical Breakdown:
Weekly Chart:
Gold closed the week with a bearish hammer, signaling potential for deeper retracement after failing to sustain its move above the key 3057 level. The rejection came after briefly breaking resistance at 2955. This structure opens the door for further liquidity grabs and a healthy correction within the macro uptrend.
Daily Chart:
The daily time frame maintains a bullish structure seen by the daily trend line. Price respected the 3018 demand zone, creating a potential short-term base for a retest of the 3057 area of interest. This level also aligns with a 1-hour wickless candle, likely to be filled in future price action.
Intraday & 1-Hour Chart:
A visible trendline rejection capped the upside for now, with the 15-min engulfing candle and the 3128 resistance kicking off Friday’s massive 1000-pip sell-off. That we took in the group.
4-Hour Chart & Fibonacci Analysis:
Measuring the most recent impulse leg, price has retraced to the 0.88 Fibonacci level, suggesting a corrective phase could be nearing completion. A move towards the golden zone (3072–3090) is expected, which also aligns with the 50 EMA.
Key Support for Re-Entry:
Should further downside occur, the 2988 zone stands out as a high-probability area for long re-entries. This level is confluence-rich:
Retest of the daily trendline
1-Hour demand zone
4-Hour trendline retest
Strong support/resistance flip
Key Fundamentals to Watch:
Quarter-End Portfolio Rebalancing & Earnings Season
With stock market participants repositioning, gold may be used for hedging or liquidation depending on sentiment.
Geopolitical Risk (Trump, China, Tariffs)
Ongoing discussions and political headlines could reignite fear-based buying. Be ready for sharp intraday reactions.
Federal Reserve Speeches & FOMC Minutes
Traders will look for clues on potential interest rate cuts or pauses. Hawkish rhetoric could weigh on gold short term.
CPI Data (U.S. Inflation) – Wednesday, April 10th
Critical for rate path expectations. Sticky inflation may keep the Fed hawkish, increasing gold volatility. A surprise miss would benefit gold.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.