Market Recap: Tokyo Session & Early London Session (Cairo time) for FX:XAUUSD by ICHIMOKUontheNILE

Market Recap: Tokyo Session & Early London Session (Cairo time)

Tokyo Session (2:00 AM – 9:00 AM Cairo Time):
1. Price Action Overview:
• The session was relatively subdued, with the price consolidating within a narrow range of $2,660–$2,670, creating liquidity above and below these levels.
• Support Zone: Price tested $2,660 multiple times but held steady, signaling demand in this area.
• Resistance Zone: $2,670 acted as a ceiling, rejecting any attempts to break higher during the session.
2. Institutional Behavior:
• Institutions seemed to focus on building liquidity by trapping early retail buyers at the upper end ($2,670) while protecting the $2,660 zone.
• No significant volume spikes were observed, indicating the Tokyo session remained in accumulation mode.
3. Indicators Analysis:
• RSI Divergence: Slight bearish divergence on lower timeframes indicated exhaustion near $2,670.
• VWAP: Price stayed around the VWAP mean, signaling equilibrium in the market.
4. Outcome:
• The session ended with price near $2,665, positioning it between support ($2,660) and resistance ($2,670).

Early London Session (9:00 AM – 12:00 PM Cairo Time):
1. Price Action Overview:
• Increased volatility began as London traders stepped in.
• Breakout Attempt: Price spiked towards $2,675 but failed to hold, trapping early buyers.
• Breakdown Test: The price then dipped sharply towards $2,656, forming a temporary bottom, before rebounding back to $2,665.
2. Institutional Behavior:
• Trap Setup: Institutions cleared liquidity above $2,670, then swept stops below $2,660 before rebounding.
• The behavior suggests they were gathering liquidity from both sides to prepare for a bigger move in the NYC session.
3. Indicators Analysis:
• Volume: High volume appeared near $2,660–$2,656 during the breakdown, indicating institutional activity.
• RSI: RSI bounced from oversold levels on the 30-minute chart, signaling the potential for a reversal.
4. Outcome:
• Price returned to $2,665, positioning itself for the next move ahead of the NYC session.

What to Expect Pre-NYC & NYC Sessions (4:00 PM – 11:00 PM Cairo Time):

Economic News Impact:
1. Upcoming Economic Data:
• US Retail Sales (4:30 PM): Expected to show a slight decline.
• If weaker than expected: Gold likely to spike higher as USD weakens.
• If stronger than expected: Gold may drop as USD strengthens.
• US Empire State Manufacturing Index (5:15 PM): Another high-impact report to watch.

Key Levels to Watch:
1. Support Levels:
• Primary Zone: $2,650–$2,656 (major institutional support).
• Secondary Zone: $2,640 (critical psychological level).
2. Resistance Levels:
• Primary Zone: $2,675–$2,680 (major institutional resistance).
• Secondary Zone: $2,690 (key breakout level).

Possible Scenarios:

Scenario 1: Breakout Above $2,675 (Bullish Continuation)
• Setup: If price breaks above $2,675 with volume after the news.
• Entry: Buy near $2,675 after retest as support.
• SL: $2,670.
• TP1: $2,685 (VWAP Upper Band).
• TP2: $2,690.
• TP3: $2,700.

Scenario 2: Liquidity Trap Above $2,675 (Bearish Reversal)
• Setup: If price spikes above $2,675 briefly but fails to hold.
• Entry: Sell near $2,675 after bearish confirmation (15M close).
• SL: $2,680.
• TP1: $2,665.
• TP2: $2,660.

Scenario 3: Breakdown Below $2,656 (Bearish Continuation)
• Setup: If price breaks below $2,656 with increasing volume.
• Entry: Sell near $2,656 after retest as resistance.
• SL: $2,660.
• TP1: $2,650.
• TP2: $2,640.

Scenario 4: Bounce from $2,650 (Bullish Reversal)
• Setup: If price dips to $2,650 and finds strong buying interest.
• Entry: Buy near $2,650 after bullish confirmation.
• SL: $2,645.
• TP1: $2,660.
• TP2: $2,670.

Breakdown of Approximate Timings:
1. Pre-NYC (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM): Expect positioning around key levels ($2,656–$2,675) ahead of Retail Sales data.
2. NYC Open (4:30 PM – 5:30 PM): High volatility expected as the market reacts to economic reports.
3. Mid-NYC (6:00 PM – 8:00 PM): Institutions may establish the trend for the rest of the day.
4. NYC Close (8:00 PM – 11:00 PM): Potential reversals or trend continuations into the session close.

Final Notes:
1. Watch Volume: Confirm breakouts or breakdowns with volume spikes.
2. Use VWAP: Key VWAP levels to monitor: $2,665 (current mean), $2,675 (upper band), and $2,656 (lower band).
3. Stay Adaptive: Be ready to flip positions if institutions fake a move.

This plan positions you to react to every major development in the NYC session.

ICHIMOKUontheNILE

Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
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