3000 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 6E, 7 HOURS FROM THE BEARS' FUNERAL for OANDA:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

3000 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 6E, 7 HOURS FROM THE BEARS' FUNERAL

Did I not say your experts would change their mind? I have not seen this personally, just overheard this from people here and there. I also said that I don't care who they are SO OF COURSE I DON'T CARE IF THEY CHANGE THEIR MIND OR NOT, and why? Because price is easy if you are going to avoid giving dates with it. I read this article one time, this guy was calling $25,000 gold prices, but WOULDN'T PUT A DATE ON IT. My problem with his "forecast" was that something tells me I am not going to live forever. I don't know who you are personally, but it is reasonable to say you will not either. Let me say this though because I REALLY LIKE THIS CHART AT TOP:

1) you follow my posts for 50 days
2) from here to Jackson Hole
3) I am going to deliver 2400, 2500, 2600, 2700, and
4) sooooo close to 2750, it will feel like...
5) you are going to live forever!
6) this post continues directly from 6D
7) and my notes on what price should do from now
8) to Tuesday's "sideways limit expiration"
9) on chart above dark blue is base case
10) light blue hi-lights are the variations that I can see right now
11) yellow is FEB-APR rally from 1985 to 2430 MOVED OVER
12) to show what happened last time at this comparable moment

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1:55 AM ET, for my regulars
1) I think this chart hits for to 8 trading days
2) so 2515 should come either July 12th, 15th, or 16th
3) or 2 of those 3 dates may get hit
4) before NFP in about 6.5 hours...
5) there maybe a check from 2371-74 to what?
6) obvious 65 is a target
7) and maybe even 55
8) before we tag 2387 Friday
9) yes 2403 is possible
10) but not likely

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11) DO NOT CONFUSE SHORT TERM TACTICAL ESTIMATES
12) with the bigger picture
13) your aim should be 2515 before it's worth shorting

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2:09 AM ET, new relative high 66.xx and we are on the way
14) where all the smack talkers at today?
15) where are you at?
16) I promised you I would crush you even BEFORE THE MOVE TO 2295
17) where you at now?
18) running your mouth all damn day?
19) where your ideas at?
20) REMEMBER WHAT I SAID, I am not here trying to make 10, 20, 30 pts

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21) AND REMEMBER, I SAID WITH OR WITHOUT THE DROP TO 2295
22) here's the evidence:

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23) in chart at top, this was basically "prelim" for DRAFT 5's the call
24) we won't hit 2450 tomorrow
25) but that's ok

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26) WE DON'T HAVE TO hit it tomorrow
27) next week is fine

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28) 2:22 AM ET AND I AM GOING TO BED
29) I can't nail every wiggle ok? especially when I am short on time
30) so EVEN THOUGH WE ARE GOING ALL THE WAY UP
31) we have to respect risk if it starts showing its head
32) replay 6B here and you'll see what I mean:

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3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6B - COMPRESSION SHOULD BREAK SOON

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33) in chart above, I missed the first move
34) but since price hit the rest of the way
35) I do harbor some fears that it continues this pattern
36) ultimately it's the same ending 7/12-7/16
37) just be very aware of this

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Note

6) continuing w/ chart above, that line of decision is 2358
7) just be careful if anytime under 2358... adding

8) and for the people trying to short a break out
9) shorting above 2358 ESPECIALLY HERE is dangerous AF
10 that's what the 2 lines are a 2-way temporary stop marker
11) bc the temporary check down from 71-74 is actually 2354
12) I am not staying up to baby sit anybody

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13) NOT THAT IT MUST TAG 2354 after 71-74, BUT IT CAN!

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14) earlier I put notes in for DRAFT 6B
15) the link to that is also below in related links section
16) the difference between 6B and current situation
17) is WHEN DOES 54 GET HIT ? (6B says straight from here)
18) it is 3:03 AM ET, right now and 2363
19) live odds favor 71-74 first before checkdown
20) but i have history with this time of day where London crowd likes to sell this off
21) so would I be surprised if we moved to 54 first?
22) no, just use the up trend line to manage that risk if it's a big deal to you
23) I am long, leveraged long, but I am ALSO NOT TRADING IN AND OUT FOR 10 PTS
24) good night

Note

7/5 6:06 AM ET 2363.xx NFP in 144 min, and nothing has cleared up about 2354 checkdown
a) so we tagged 2368 before bulling back to 62.xx as I type
b) with the window before NFP running out
c) you would think it gets cleared up
d) but not yet
e) bc we did not get a 71-74 high
f) we had a 68 high
g) bc of time running out
h) it's STARTING TO FAVOR 54 NEXT
i) but this NFP coming up, crazy price action happen during NFP all the time
j) so while IT'S STARTING TO FAVOR 54 NEXT
k) I don't have something concrete to say that for sure
l) meaning even though time is running out and it's 141 minutes lefft
m) price can still move to 71-74 in which case the floor SHOULD BE 2360
n) so again at 6:10 AM and 2363.31, would say it's only 55-45 that 54 is next
o) as opposed to 71-74, 60,THEN BACK UP

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6:23 AM, 127 minutes left, 2364.81, it's now 51-49, 71-76 is first
a) with the most likely target 73.5
b) so still coin flipping for the 2-way vol AHEAD OF NFP

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c) 6:31 AM ET, 65.27, 119 minutes left and it's 60-40 74-ish first
d) so 74-60-and back up

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4) continuing in chart above
5) the blues are from chart at top, I made them super light
6) to illustrate the differences of the two routes
7) yellow is the 74-60 and up
8) gray is 54 and up
9) the longer it stays under 65 from here on out
10) the more it will favor gray
11) and it's obvious to see why
12) because of less total distance price has to cover "from here to there"
13) but this also why NFP/FOMC/major CPI-PPI releases etcc... SWING SO MUCH
14) before settiling into the next move
15) bc the primary and secondary routes remain 50-50 RIGHT UP TO EVENT TIME
16) or even an hour past it
17) that's why it swings so much in these situations

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18) and just because it heads to 61 DOES NOT MEAN IT HAS TOTALLY DECIDED
19) for example:

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20) you've seen this move before...
21) bc once at 2360 and time....

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22) under 52 minutes to go, NATURAL ODDS favor gray
23) natural odds mean, it's the easier way because of less total distance to cover
24) but it still surprises BOTH SIDES with the remaining time it has left
25) so be careful as this is the "binary outcome for this zone
26) it's not over until it's over

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27) and what I mean by surprising BOTH SIDES is this:
28) once at 60, you just wouldn't think it moves to to 75 and 60 before moving back up
29) but it does you one better by moving to 75 AND THEN 54, then back up
30) but whatever it does, we will move to 2515-2520 on Friday July 12th to...
31) Tuesday July 16th ( or any two points in between this window of time)
32) meaning Sunday 7/14 or Monday 7/15

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8:09 AM ET, and 21 minutes left so?
1) with 50 minutes left at 7:40 it moved to 62.50 ... and

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2) with 26 minutes left at 8:04, price almost matched last night's high at 67.85
3) so pattern that is closest is the dark blue 2 charts above here
4) that's all that can really be said bc at 8:12 and 18 minutes left
5) vol is pickup steam BEFORE THE RELEASE
6) so the number of possible zig zags from for the next 90 minutes
7) to get "from here to there"
8) have exploded

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9) meaning the possible combinations
10) so this is why traders are almost always recommended to avoid the vol
11) and trade the last move after everything has settled out
12) bc of several whiplash moves possible during this small window of time

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13) I just feel that there is opportunity IF YOU HAVE TOTAL "STOP DISCIPLINE"
14) "a stop is a stop" is never more true than it is in these situations
15) and keep trade size small and manageable, and it's something you can learn how to do
16) and at 8:17 AM and 13 minutes to go, just passed last night's high by a hair

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17) 8:24 and 6 minutes to go at 67.xx
18) so if it's going to play this pattern ...
19) it would (in theory) extend past NFP
20) meaning price would reach past 2375
21) but then how do I know it would "rugpull to 60? or 62-63" before up again
22) I DONT' ANY MORE

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23) so be aware

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8:34 AM, 47-75 now 71.xx
24) didn't see that combination
25) but it's over now
26) but since we already checked low.. do we go to 54 or 63 again?
27) too early for me to say
28) by the time I know, it's all over anyway

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29) 8:37 AM 73.XX, it does not have to to check low anymore
30) doesn't I mean it can't
31) but the trade is long to 2515, that's my call
32) the remaining zigzags for next 82 min or until 10 AM...
33) is HARD AF TO FIGURE OUT OK?

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34) ultimately dark blue had 75-54 and up
35) but price did 68, 48, 75, now 67 and later up
36) for the record, price only SPENT 20 SECONDS UNDER 2354

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37) and here is that chart again (same one 2 chart up) vs what's happening now:

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8:48 AM, today's high?
1) I think it's 2392
2) that's 17 above the spike high minutes ago
3) so it's doable
4) and that's pretty much it for today
5) I'll add notes if I see anything different
6) and if you think you call NFP price action more accurate than my dark blue route...
a) more power to you
b) good f-ing job and I mean that 200%
c) bc it is sooooooooo hard to get it right for these situations
d) borderline impossible in my opinion but not ultimately NOT IMPOSSIBLE
e) I am do this (most of the time) on a one $270 CHROMEBOOK
f) as I am doing right now from Chicago bc I am not home

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9:06 AM ET, we are going to hit 76-77 and take out the spike high
1) and as I SAID DAYS AGO
2) your experts will step out AND BOLDLY CALL FOR 2400 after price has hit 2385
3) and this ... this is why I said I don't who care who your expert is
4) I don't
5) I didn't then and I don't know and I won't tomorrow
6) that's not because I am smarter
7) but bc I put in 8 years of pain, blood, sweat and tears
8) to be able to say that confidently and know in my bones
9) that I know exactly what I talking about:

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1) and just so there are no misunderstandings
2) I am not saying I am a better analyst or trader
3) bc they do EVERYTHING
4) I do one thing only, forecast gold prices

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9:50 AM ET, 2381.XX, where all the trash talkers at today?
1) where are you?
2) I said last week, if you're a man
3) show up here on 7/5 and finish what you started
4) but you can't finish what you started
5) I said in this post and the last 2
6) from now to Jackson Hole
7) fighting with me is a really bad idea
8) with that said

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THIS POST IS FINISHED.
AND NEXT ONE IS NOT FREE.

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11:14 AM ET, 2383.XX
1) for what it's worth
2) I already said earlier that we should move fore 2392
3) and that 2403 was possible today, but I felt that it was unlikely
4) neither of those things have changed
5) bc of this move, the "sideways limit expiration" should now be Monday or Tuesday
6) in theory, this does not move violently up until
7) "sideways limit expiration" I talked bout somewhere up the page

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8) no, I discussed that at the VERY END OF PREVIOUS POST
9) but yeah it should be Monday night into Tuesday

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12:20 PM ET, so the the biggest question right now is WHEN WILL WE HIT 2403-2406
a) we have a shot at 2392 today
b) but when will we move for 2406?
c) CAN WE TODAY?
d) it's hard to say we should
e) but NOT IMPOSSIBLE
f) either that, or Sunday night or Monday AM hours
g) this move sets the DATE for first tag of 2517-ish high

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h) be aware of we are pushing the ceiling, right now 2386
i) 2392 is only 6 points up
j) so 2397 already reasonable
k) 2406 is an extra 9 so not impossible

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l) 12:31 85.44, we have a shot for 2403-2406
m) yes we do, at least 33-40%
n) replay previous draft:

3000 BY HALLLOWEEN, DRAFT 6D, DIE BEARS, DIE AGAIN, AND AGAIN!

o) we may lose very close to 2400 as stated in previous post

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p) typo, "close very close to 2400"

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9) continuing in from chart above'
10) THIS IS A TOTAL WRAP UP FOR THIS POST
11) have a good day

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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