Market Analysis – Labor Day Sell-Off & Key Levels
Labor Day kicked off with a major sell-off during the Asian session, breaking structure as price plummeted from 3292.88 to 3221.40 before the EU session’s opening bell (2025-05-01). Whether this shocked traders or not, one thing became evident—3292 is a critical level, coinciding with the monthly Fibonacci level.
An overstretched price rise inevitably needs correction, and that confirmation has arrived. For a meaningful bull run, price must breach 3292 with strong momentum to signal recovery. Failure to reclaim this level will keep bearish sentiment alive for a while longer.
Key Levels to Monitor – 4H Timeframe
Bullish Signals
Watch for 4H candle closes at:
🔹 Above 3243 → Potential short-term bullish opportunity, range 3243-3263.
🔹 Above 3263 → Swing opportunity toward 3322, though consolidation may still form as bulls resist further decline.
🔹 Recovery attempt? Key bullish ranges to monitor: 3322 / 3332 / 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403. Stay tuned.
🔹 Major upside continuation → If price holds above 3403, broader global economic conditions may not be in great shape, potentially contradicting gold’s safe-haven narrative.
Bearish Signals
On the downside, bears haven’t shown full conviction yet—but keep an eye on:
🔻 Immediate important levels: 3200 / 3167 / 3134 / 3080 / 3057 / 3030 / 3005 / 2999 / 2966 / 2961 / 2952
🔻 Short-term bearish opportunities: 3253 / 3242 / 3232 / 3227 / 3211 / 3209 / 3200 / 3195 / 3185 / 3181 / 3178 / 3169.
🔻 While many traders favor these ranges, personally, I prefer locking in on key levels.
Final Thoughts
Markets tell a story—we just need to show up early to catch the best opportunities.
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident.
✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions.
✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.
Labor Day kicked off with a major sell-off during the Asian session, breaking structure as price plummeted from 3292.88 to 3221.40 before the EU session’s opening bell (2025-05-01). Whether this shocked traders or not, one thing became evident—3292 is a critical level, coinciding with the monthly Fibonacci level.
An overstretched price rise inevitably needs correction, and that confirmation has arrived. For a meaningful bull run, price must breach 3292 with strong momentum to signal recovery. Failure to reclaim this level will keep bearish sentiment alive for a while longer.
Key Levels to Monitor – 4H Timeframe
Bullish Signals
Watch for 4H candle closes at:
🔹 Above 3243 → Potential short-term bullish opportunity, range 3243-3263.
🔹 Above 3263 → Swing opportunity toward 3322, though consolidation may still form as bulls resist further decline.
🔹 Recovery attempt? Key bullish ranges to monitor: 3322 / 3332 / 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403. Stay tuned.
🔹 Major upside continuation → If price holds above 3403, broader global economic conditions may not be in great shape, potentially contradicting gold’s safe-haven narrative.
Bearish Signals
On the downside, bears haven’t shown full conviction yet—but keep an eye on:
🔻 Immediate important levels: 3200 / 3167 / 3134 / 3080 / 3057 / 3030 / 3005 / 2999 / 2966 / 2961 / 2952
🔻 Short-term bearish opportunities: 3253 / 3242 / 3232 / 3227 / 3211 / 3209 / 3200 / 3195 / 3185 / 3181 / 3178 / 3169.
🔻 While many traders favor these ranges, personally, I prefer locking in on key levels.
Final Thoughts
Markets tell a story—we just need to show up early to catch the best opportunities.
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident.
✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions.
✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.
Trade active
As trading on Friday has moved away from 3243-3253 range and move below; wait for the lower level confirmation. Breaches or bounce at 3227 will determine next direction.Just thinking out loud. This 3227 is quite important as it aligned with Monthly Fib. This either fly up or free fall to the next is all up for grab.
All the best with your trade; that is if you are following this update.
Note
I personally have been collecting new entry since 3313 and it still running at this point. Only time will tell when the key-level breached. Decision is swift and simple.Act only when it is confirmed.
Note
3169 is looking pretty irresistible. The last wave had a similar move, so I’m feeling the rhythm. Let’s see where this dance takes us.Note
As the new trading week begins, price has yet to push above 3242/3263, following last week's candle close. Bearish sentiment remains strong as long as price stays below 3322.A strategic approach would be to anticipate market movement within the active range of 3263 - 3363 on the weekly chart. The bulls have yet to submit, and solid confirmation of bearish control is still lacking as price holds above 3227/3200/3134. A meaningful bearish move could intensify if price breaks below 3222.
A push past 3270 could attempt a breakout toward 3337/3363, a major swing zone. If price manages to break through 3354, expect bullish momentum to strengthen.
Daily Range – 2025/05/05 Possible Entries:
📈 Buy: 3231 | BSL: 3202 | BTP: 3272
📉 Sell: 3260 | SSL: 3289 | STP: 3219
Note
2025/05/05 – Asian Session Update:Price ranged between 3237 - 3272, remaining sideways before the European open, holding within 3272 to 3253.
My sell position from last week closed in profit, as the adjusted SL was triggered when price tapped 3272 during the Asian session. Now monitoring for new entry opportunities as the European session unfolds.
European Session Outlook:
If price trades above 3263 during the European and NYSE sessions, a swing opportunity toward 3322 could emerge. However, consolidation may still occur as bulls resist further declines.
On the daily range, price remaining below 3260 continues to signal sell opportunities for the day trading session on 2025/05/05.
Note
4H Timeframe Analysis:3263 remains the active resistance level.
Trading above 3254 could trigger bullish momentum, potentially leading to an attempt at the upper resistance of 3322.
Sideways movement is likely as bulls and bears battle for control within the 3263/3272 zone.
Signs of weakness may emerge if price pushes past 3272, only to pull back below and retest 3263, which has shifted from resistance to support.
Next Directional Moves:
A confirmed candle close on either side of the 3263/3272 range could signal a new entry opportunity. Traders can anticipate re-entry based on the breakout direction, aligning with their strategy and risk management plan.
✅ Maintaining a tight stop-loss will help optimize risk exposure and trade execution.
Note
The market reached 3322 during the pre-opening NYSE session, following a breakout above 3272, as anticipated. This has activated the swing range between 3263 - 3322.Further upside movement may lead to an attempt at breaching the 3343/3403 resistance levels. Key resistance areas to watch above 3322 include: 3332 / 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403.
Note
Conclusion 5/5/2025:The directional shift was confirmed after price moved past 3263/3272/3322, leading to continued upward movement, closing at 3334—well within the anticipated 3332/3339 range.
The daily high for 05/05/2025 reached 3337, falling just short of 3339.
Note
6th/5/2025 – Movement Anticipation:On the 4H timeframe, for the upward continuation to gain traction, price must breach the dynamic resistance level at 3336 following a successful retest of the recently formed support zones at any of these 3263 / 3272 / 3322.
A strong breakout above 3336 will require convincing bullish momentum with no signs of exhaustion, paving the way for an extended move toward the key upper resistance levels at: 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403, setting the stage for a bullish recovery.
Note
Asian Session—about 37 minutes to noon. It’s lunchtime in Asia.I just can’t keep a level head when I see volume depleting, yet prices keep rising on both the 4H and daily candles. The symptom is obvious—but are we diagnosing the correct prognosis?
The recent high is at 3387, and the immediate swing high sits at 3403. I believe the real trap is at 3403—luring eager buyers into chasing, only to reverse sharply once liquidity is absorbed.
If bears were truly eliminated after fully testing the previous low, we’d have confirmation—but that didn’t happen. The move stalled, fueled by excitement rather than conviction. Bears might just be waiting patiently for bulls at the top. So I won’t be too excited just yet.
Note
4H Timeframe Analysis – Liquidity Battle at Key Levels📍 Frankfurt – 30 minutes after open (6th May 2025)
On the 4-hour timeframe (4H TF), price action reflects intensified participation, with both buyers and sellers battling for control at key liquidity levels.
🔴 Sell-Side Engagement Intensifies
The red candle following the green candle shows higher volume, signaling an increase in selling pressure.
Sellers are stepping in aggressively after a bullish attempt, putting pressure on key levels.
🟢 Bulls Defending Critical Zones
The prior green candle indicated bullish momentum, but buyers faced resistance as sellers absorbed liquidity.
Bulls are working to maintain price within key liquidity zones, aiming to prevent a deeper pullback.
📊 Potential Market Scenarios
1️⃣ If selling volume continues rising, price could struggle to sustain above key levels, leading to a deeper retracement.
2️⃣ If bulls absorb the selling pressure, consolidation may follow before another attempt to push higher.
3️⃣ Reaction at trend lines, support zones, and institutional liquidity areas will clarify whether this is a temporary pullback or the start of a broader rotation.
🔎 Key Market Factors to Watch
✔ Volume shifts – Are sellers maintaining control, or are bulls absorbing pressure?
✔ Swing level reactions – Is liquidity being absorbed or exhausted?
✔ Institutional positioning – Are major players reshaping price action?
Price Action Overview
🔸 Briefly tested 3368, then pulled back below 3363 (key level) before pushing toward 3403.
🔸 Despite upward attempts, bullish momentum appears exhausted, unless a strong continuation move with renewed momentum emerges.
At this stage, price can't sustain an uninterrupted upward trajectory without solid momentum, making it critical to wait for further confirmations before committing to a directional bias.
Note
Tracking Anticipated Rejection Zones – NYSE SessionSince the NYSE market open, price action has respected the projected rejection zones, holding steady until the late session, nearing closing.
📍 Key Levels:
3375.15 - hold upside
3388.75 - hold upside
3403.78 - hold upside
3410.81 - hold upside as of 15:30hrs of NY
3436.19 - has not reach as of 15:30hrs of NY
3446.46 (Bullish Target – 1.618 Fibonacci Extension)
📊 Observations:
✔ Price reaction at these levels remains aligned with anticipations, confirming key liquidity engagements.
✔ Further confirmation is required to assess potential momentum shifts in the next trading phase and during the Asian session.
✔ Volume has been decreasing over the last 3 hours, aligning with the natural slowdown in the second half of the NYSE session.
tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/minds/?mind=HBa5hl_5SdCRX0VjpXzUIQ&exchange=OANDA
Trade closed manually
Price has risen noticeably, though volume tapered off in the final hours of the last NYSE session [6th/5/2025], closing at 3435.11—just shy of the 78.6% retracement level at 3436.38. Pre-Asian Session shows pullback below the recent Resistance Turned Support level at 3403.
This move is far from complete, with further developments likely. However, to keep this post concise, I’ll provide the next update in a more recent idea, reflecting up-to-date price action, liquidity shifts, and volume trends. If you are following my update, click here for latest idea--->
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.