XAUUSD Structural Analysis & Confluence - 16 July 2025

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4-Hour Bias & Structural Context
Gold has recently broken above a key structure level at $3,320, confirming a bullish market environment on the 4‑hour timeframe. This follows a Change of Character (CHOCH) around $3,300, signifying a shift from consolidation to an upward trend. The swing from the late-June low ($3,244) to mid-July’s high ($3,374) sets our Fibonacci context:

38.2% retrace ≈ $3,318

50% retrace ≈ $3,309

61.8% retrace ≈ $3,300

These fib levels also align with prior structure and key ICT/SMC zones, signaling strong areas of interest.

🧭 Key 4-Hour Confluence Zones
Demand / Order Block → $3,300 – 3,305

Multi-method support: BOS, CHOCH, 50–61.8% fib convergence.

Fair Value Gap (FVG) → $3,320 – 3,325

Volume deficient zone post-BOS, primed for a retest.

Supply / Resistance Area → $3,360 – 3,370

High-timeframe supply, likely to cap further upside.

🧠 Smart Money Concepts
BOS above $3,320 confirms bullish structure.

CHOCH at ~$3,300 marks structure flip.

Liquidity grab zones found between $3,335–3,340, validating the presence of institutional activity.

Order Block at $3,300–3,305 supports buy-side interest.

📊 1-Hour Intraday Trade Setups
🔸 Setup #1 – FVG Re-Test

Entry: At ~$3,325 on pullback into $3,320–3,325 zone

SL: Below $3,320

TP1: $3,345, TP2: $3,360

🔸 Setup #2 – Demand OB Bounce (“Golden Setup”)

Entry: In the $3,300–3,305 range

SL: Below $3,298

TP1: $3,325, TP2: $3,345, TP3: $3,360

Edge: Tight risk, high confluence (SMC + fib + structure)

🌟 The Golden Setup
Zone to Watch: $3,300–3,305

Why It Rates Highest:

BOS, CHOCH, fib, and OB all align

Offers tight stop placement and strong upside

Risk-to-reward ~1:3

📌 Daily Watchlist Summary
Directional Bias: Bullish (BOS above $3,320 intact)

Primary Entry Zones:

$3,300–3,305 (Demand OB + structure)

$3,320–3,325 (FVG retest for continuation)

Key Target Zones:

$3,345–3,350 – realistic intraday exit

$3,360–3,370 – major supply cap

Invalidation Level: 4‑hour candle close below $3,298 negates bullish outlook

Final Commentary
Stay disciplined—only trade reactive signals at these levels: clean bounces, pinbars, or bullish engulfing patterns. The $3,300–3,305 zone stands out as the prime ‘Golden Setup’ entry.

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