Long

Using HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence (update)

Updated

I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week.

Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.

But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).

Note

How I'm making sense of today:
Jobs data is really just going sideways ... key take away is that the job market is not worsening which marginally increases the odds of a 50bp hike in February
Next Thursday's jobs data is now the focus... I still think we could rally into Wednesday (FOMC) before the larger selloff begins

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Fundamentals are paving the path higher at the moment; expecting price to gradually move towards higher lvls from here going into Wednesday's FOMC

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Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc.

If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.

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Potential trade idea for tomorrow (the key is Powell's press conference)

NOTE: If tomorrow is a surprise 25bp hike or if Powell is excessively dovish this trade is invalid as XAU will likely shoot higher on the back of these developments.

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ECB and the Fed are worried about services inflation - especially after initial claims were WAY lower than expected; forcing them to remain Hawkish

Which means lower XAU price to come

Note

This trade should ideally be a TUESDAY event based on fundamentals; if the data comes out a particular way the trade will be less valid.

Note

as long as price doesn't melt overnight, we should be good to go for tomorrow's short

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How to use HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence!

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