XAUUSD - Gold (Make or Break moment)

There is a lot of selling pressure for gold, with RSI signaling overbought conditions on every higher time frame. Undoubtedly bullish, however, it may have reached a peak. In my opinion, a lot of consolidation is required before pushing for another ATH. Currently, a double top appears to be in the making, with a swing rejection candle on the daily, with a hanging man candle in formation. Bear trap? Possible. However, considering there is a possible DXY breakout to the upside, as EURUSD breaks down with impending interest rates cuts in June for the EURO, my money is on the dollar. Consequently, if gold begins to retrace back to the 2300 region for a "double bottom" bounce, the ensuing move upward may begin to appear more as the right shoulder with a sequential move to the 2200 region. Moving averages are quickly catching up. Conversely, there is arguably a "cup and handle" with ~2550 target. However, this may be perceived as invalidated by many with the rejection wick on the daily. Trade carefully.

Note

There were two closing above the swing level, bulls are in control. There is a possible inverse head and shoulders at play.

Trade closed: target reached

Bulls have closed above the swing level, and have been holding off, rejecting the downside (for now). Possible reversal at this point, and another attempt at the top side. Closed off all short positions.

Trade active

This play may still somewhat be at work. Trade carefully.

Trade closed manually

Downside was rejected (for now). This might have been the final shakeout/ test before the move upward. Too dangerous to commit in one direction, but straddle is a good play.

Trader-Daves

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