3000 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 5D, 12 HOURS FROM BREAK OUT
This is last draft before 2500. This is because once at 2450, it's going to be 2500 soon after. I don't think this falls on 7/5, more like 7/8. But if it did, it would look like yellow route:
1) this drafts picks up immediately from previous notes
2) this is a really strong pattern for this week
3) that's it
1) this drafts picks up immediately from previous notes
2) this is a really strong pattern for this week
3) that's it
Note
11:01 PM, Listen, ok? 1) I am on to this
2) like this call of 2720 on 08/02...
3) if I am doing a A REALLY BAD JOB...
4) you will get get 2720 on 08/16
5) that's how strong or close I KNOW this is
6) therein lies the problem
7) how much settings up do we need to do???
8) for chart above, I consider Wed the finish of "the setup"
9) wherein, price is one direction, no more chunks of zig zag
10) I feel pretty good about this situation
11) more so than ANY SITUATION I'VE BEEN IN SINCE SEPTEMBER ....
12) that's saying something ...
13) BUT IT COULD BE BETTER
14) working on that right now
15 the flip side of this is...
16) there is a scenario where WE DON'T GET THE CHECK DOWN WED
17) and we already running and didn't know it
18) this is very unlikely
20) all I am saying is this
21) I KNOW ok.. either this is it, or we need another week
22) I will add notes for sure before Sunday open
Note
23) HERE I CAN'T DISPROVE THE FIRST DROP ...24) being deeper and causing delays
25) like this I mean:
Note
Note
2:31 PM WHAT I KNOW NOW1) the two big zig zag and its resolution should take ALL OF NEXT WEEK
2) so chart at top is correct for the first top and check down
3) but the rest of it is too fast
4) chart right above here is also 1 day too fast
5) meaning the last part where it launches, should be Sunday 7/7
Note
6) as a rule, even later pushes the August high higher7) but not necessarily the July highs
8) so now we are at 2500s 7/12
9) 2540 gets pushed to 7/24
10) and we have August 16 2740-2760
11) but doesn't it have to make 'the window' on time?
12) it has to break out on time, not make the high on time
13) but the limit of 'high stretching' should be 2760 and that's already an outlier
Note
3:38 PM ET, 6/29, So what I am doing is starting at the late limit and moving backwards.1) so price would be on time or early vs forecast
2) not the other way around
3) this is better for the psychology of anticipation
Note
4:11 PM ET4) should've been taken that approach since the beginning
5) especially since the trends are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO twisted right here
6) you can't really fire until they stop twisting
7) even though order wise, they are ready to go
Note
Note
6:39 PM, 6/2, this doesn't differ w/ post at top until Monday night.1) will re-post chart at top later
2) with time
Note
11:48 AM ET, 6/30, I finally realize something.1) the odds of topping 2720 on 7/22
2) and the odds of 2760 on 08/16
3) are the same
4) bc it's so late now...
5) that it mean trend mean reversion
6) can have us at 2500 this coming Wednesday
Note
7) typo.. that it means that mean reversion....Note
8) it's silly at this point for me to call prices like previous notes9) you can only "play it by ear"
Note
6/30 12:34 PM ET, SUNDAY OPEN IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS10) I spent most of the last 48 hours
11) perfecting what I thought should be the route
12) to 2755 on Wed 8/7
13) and then I realized, that it was always going to be at least 2720
14) as the first of 2 double tops
15) in July or August
16) and then I realized further that we are in a a sharp turn curve
17) and it's not obvious at all that we should get the bug zigzag
18) so the call should be 2720-2760
7/22 to 8/16
19) and THE ONLY WAY TO KNOW IS EVERY 12 HOURS
Note
20) until we have:A) obvious 2500s high (channel high limit)
B) obvious channel check (channel low limit)
C) or a number of random staircases
D) which will form the most annoying way to 2750
E) the reason for my backing off the perfect map I though I had synced
F) is that I am being too reasonable
for this situation
Note
6/30 at 6:30 PM, THIS DRAFT IS DONE WITH, HERE'S A SIMILAR BUT MORE COMPLETE ONE:
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