2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 2 for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 2

Introduction - This is second draft focused on this box, this blue hi-light - this time - is somewhat predictive.

Details - Will add as we go.

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7:40 PM ET, my extrapolations show only 1 notable check down coming Friday, and that's it.
a) BUY THIS RETRACE
b) why?
c) bc this pattern or setup only allow for one more notable retrace
d) and the zig zag between Sunday 2/25 and Thursday 2/29...
e) COULD JUST BE A FLAT LINE ... like this:

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f) so for chart above:
1) one more top
2) one more retrace that should hold at at blue dotted line
3 and the rest should be:

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4) more or less like this, a one way curve up

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11:41 PM ET, THURSDAY HIGH VS FRIDAY LOW:

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a) maybe more vol for both the high and the low
b) don't have a lot of time right now to generate 4-min bar routes
c) will get to it tomorrow

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02/22, 12:50 AM ET, so bulls pushing for this now:

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a) doesn't change our overall plan
b) still retrace into Friday before the move up

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02/22, 1:22 AM ET, I WILL POST 4-MIN CHARTS TOMORROW AM
a) I just gotta get some sleep now
b) good night

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c) what I was trying to say that "confirming the big move" was more important...
d) than short term price action on 4-min charts tonight

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e) and we did that

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f) this is particularly hard for me ...
g) bc all the experts on TradingView, are really exceptional and great at what they do
h) I DON'T MEAN THAT SARCASTICALLY, they are REALLY good
i) I don't want to disagree with them 180 the other way without being sure I am right

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2/22, 12;36 PM ET, 2024.XX, this is for the "1973" scenario my buddy has commented on twice:
1) first, nothing is impossible
2) but if you say 1973, then my question is when?
3) I can say this much
a) it's 2024.xx as I type
b) I still don't know if we will get one more high or not before going lower
c) it seems like it's over, but all the buying has been aftermarket-overnight
d) let's say no more higher high than 2035
e) then how big of a bounce before turning down? 2030?
f) and then what will the floor be for Friday? 1995-2015?
g) yeah but more precise...
h) it could be 1995 sure, IT COULD ALSO BE 2013
i) then I promise you at least 3 days of "SIDEWAYS AND UP" before bears can sell again
j) and that will be from 2030 or higher starting 2/28 or 2/29
k) THAT MUCH IS ALMOST WRITTEN IN STONE bc of the zig zag
l) so if you say 1973, the earliest that will be will be NEXT FRIDAY, if bears are strong
m) there are zones for bulls and bears and right now bears have the ball
n) THEY HAVE 28 HOURS TO PUSH UNDER 1995 AND CLOSE THERE
o) if they can't do that, IT'S SIDEWAYS FIRST BEFORE ANY DISCUSSION OF LOWER
q why?

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r) continuing with chart above:
s) if bears are serious they need:
1) stop a higher high tonight
2) put in a low under 1995 tomorrow
3) CLOSE THERE
t) if they do all of that, they will HAVE A CHANCE OF PULLING OFF ORANGE ROUTE
u) and this IS NOT GUARANTEED BC of resistance of that box
v) so there it is
w) but if they can't do those 3 things
x) they need stop 2040+next week
y) so in my humble opinion, 1973 is the same as 2065
z) but I can see the setup for 2065, I can;'t see a setup for 1973 (YET)

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02/22, 2:43 PM ET, 2023.XX
a) for context, what I mean by "setup for 2065" or "setup for 1973" ..
b) is when linear regression curves and standard deviations all line up ...
c) to make that move probable
d) the set for "48 trading days" (which Includes everything under 48 trading days) is bearish...
e) this is true WITHOUT A DOUBT - but only if you ignore EVERYTHING LONGER THAN THAT
f) everything longer than that is SCREAMING FOR 2135 and higher
g) the 48 day set WILL TURN by next Wednesday from bear-neutral-bull
h) and this "turn" will make price shoot to 2150 before 03/08 NFP
i) this "setup" is already in place
j) UNLESS BEARS BREAK THIS BOX AND HOLD IT THERE
l) and the clock is ticking
m) the "average scenario" has a move to 2006 tomorrow ..
n) and bounce to 2030 again by next Wednesday
o) if this happens, odds of bulls winning this fight is like 19 out of 20 on a 100-trading day basis

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p) 100-trading days is like five months
q) it's really hard to change, so to change that:

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r) for chart above, SO THE BLUE ROUTE INCLUDES THE DROP TO 2006 TOMORROW
s) so that means that, AT 2006 tomorrow, BULLS ARE STILL WINNING
t) and if bears push to 1995, we would still be at 50/50 for the first 4 hours
u) bears need to hold 1995 for more than 4 hours to change outcome
w) and they have 26 hours to do it

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02/22 4:03 PM 2024.57, this whole week, the buying has been aftermarket over night.
a) and it looks like that trend is about to continue
b) my trend engine says if bulls make one more high above 2035 tonight or tomorrow AM
c) that's enough to "shut the door" on any bear comeback and bulls WILL PUSH FOR NEW ALL TIME HIGH
d) whether or not they get it by 03/08? not sure...
e) bc for IDC ticker that's 2147, for other tickers it would be 2137
f) but if they get one more high, I PROMISE YOU THEY WLL TRY REALLY HARD
g) especially starting on 03/01

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h) continuing with chart above: the most obvious question is why the Friday deadline?
i) why can't it be Monday or Tuesday, that seems so arbitrary?
j) but basically:

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02/23, 2:04 AM ET 2020.26, next 2 hours kind of important.
a) so bears stopped the bounce at 2027.xx
b) and sold to to 2017.xx and we have a little bit of a stall
c) this stall here, ahead of the "3 AM ET" turn...
d) because the powers that be like to have decisive price action at 3AM ...
e) will determine whether or not bears are strong rest of today or next 15 hours
f) the window for low under 2000 is open but it's deceiving
g) if bears don't push hard ahead of 8:30 AM ET event time...
h) it is NOT OBVIOUS THEY CAN BREAK UNDER 2011
i) that's where we stand right now, will add notes after NY OPEN
j) BTW, I haven't been doing 4-min charts bc they would not have been effective in this zone

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8:01 AM ET -- 2027.XX from 2015.xx overnight low.
a) as stated 6 hours ago...
b) it is NOT OBVIOUS, see?
c) today is Friday, and we are still not past 8:30 AM
d) but from my end, bears have 9 hours to "change intermediate outcomes"
e) in my humbled opinion, they can still push to to 1995
f) but it should be obvious now, IT WON'T BE EASY!....
g) I'll add more notes after NY OPEN and draft DRAFT #3

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8:29:30, 2026.xx, maybe 1997.

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8:32, 2027.xx, maybe not, floor just rose to 2010, IF BEARS CAN EVEN MAKE IT THERE.

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8:36 2026.XX, floor is 2013-2016.
a) and it's not obvious bears want to break the overnight low of 2015.xx
b) THERE ARE NO EVENTS SCHEDULED TODAY
c) so in my humble opinion:
1) whatever sell off we get today, if any...
2) 2015 is not going to break
3) and if 2015 holds today, THAT'S THE LOW AND IT'S OVER FOR BEARS
4) the next question is how fast do we up?
5) BEFORE WE GO ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS STILL MORE SIDEWAYS TO DO
6) this "SIDEWAYS TO UP" period, will take us to NEXT FRIDAY
7) and the explosiveness should be 03/01-03/07

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a) in chart above: there are two important dates
b) 03/08 NFP and 03/20 FOMC
c) the window for NEW ALL TIME HIGH by 03/08 is wide open now
d) but bulls HAVE TO KEEP IT OPEN
e) if they hesitate, bears will shut that door and force bulls to wait until 03/20 FOMC
f) to take the next move up after the first high in that box

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02/23, 10:01 AM ET, 2028.XX
a) so from here on out
b) all we have to do is focus on the 7-day wave
c) bc we have already solved for EVERYTHING LONGER THAN THAT
d) our aim is NEW ATH BEFORE 03/08
e) but bc of "wave disorder" shown in chart above for short to medium term waves
f) this is NOT "IN THE BAG" so to speak
g) odds RIGHT NOW, favor that of course
h) but throw in 3 extra days of sideways and sideways high consolidation between 2065-2085 will become the favorite

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i) bc FOMC is 03/20, it's not hard to see how this can get delayed 2 more weeks

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11:09 AM ET 2032.XX, EARLY FRIDAY WRAP UP AHEAD OF DRAFT 3
a) bears are finished, it should be obvious now, right?
b) so first ceiling today is 2038
c) I don't think this breaks on the first try, so hit that and bears will push it back down
d) HOWEVER, it's still early, we have 6 hours to go
e) if bulls try for second time late afternoon, they will aim for 2047
f) whether or not they get there, THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO CLOSE HIGHER THAN 2038

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g) BUT IF THEY DO CLOSE HIGHER THAN 2038...
h) then it's hard see bears stopping NEW ALL TIME HIGH before 03/08/24

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i) bc, remember, I was expecting a drop to 2006 today
j) AND WAS WILLING TO ACCEPT A TAG OF 1995, as long as we closed above 2006
k) if we close 2040+, come''on now, not even same ball park

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11:44 AM ET 2037.50... checkdown next?
a) a bit too fast now
b) so it would make sense that we see 2032 before we see 2040
c) so there's that
d) that's a TOTAL WRAP for DRAFT2
e) starting with DRAFT 3, all the focus will be on 7-day wave

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f) continuing at 11:55 PM 2038.XX
g) replay the chart at top (gray is DRAFT 1, blue is DRAFT 2)
h) in DRAFT 1, I said gray hi-light was not meant to be "predictive in anyway"
i) it just so happens that the "rhythm" of the move fits that pattern now
j) so that means what?
k) WHATEVER HAPPENS TODAY...
l) we should hit 2028 at least TWICE before Friday 03/01
m) and crossover 2038 3, maybe 4 times before Friday 03/01

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n) 12:10 PM ET 2037.xx, temporary 2039 top in
o) so the overall theme for next 3-4 days is SIDEWAYS TO UP
p) sideways to up means SIDEWAYS FIRST until the blue 7-trading day wave turns completely
q) have a good weekend

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2/24/24, I'm so stuck with time this coming week to post something useful soon.
a) that's so annoying to be at this point too
b) just wanted to saying something for people who are expecting DRAFT 3
c) sorry if I lead you on

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12/26, so some notes until I have DRAFT 3 ready:

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a) in chart above there are 3 parts:
1) sideways (before 12:00 noon, ET, Wednesday)
2) to up (after 12:00 noon .... )
3) hard one-way swing up (starting Friday 03/01 or Sunday 03/03)
b) that means before 12:00 noon ET, Wed...
c) there SHOULD BE more 2-way zig zag that will deliver 1 more high
d) and hit 2028 twice
e) that's all, have a good one

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12/26, 10:56 AM ET, and here is DRAFT 3:

2150 BY 03/08/24 DRAFT 3, 2087 IS HIGHLY, HIGHLY LIKELY

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03/01 - WE'RE GONNA KILL IT, BACK TO DRAFT 1!

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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