Market Recap & Key Developments
Friday saw a notable shift in momentum as bearish pressure led to a significant pullback from recent all-time highs. This move created a swift correction, filling inefficiencies left behind by the previous bullish impulse.
On the 4-hour timeframe, a well-defined head and shoulders pattern formed, with the neckline breaking at 3026, triggering a sharp sell-off. Price found support at the 3000 psychological level, leading to a corrective bounce that efficiently filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) left by the initial move.
🔹 Key Level: 3026 – Watching for this to act as new resistance for potential continuation to the downside.
🔹 Support Zone: 3000 – Held as a key level during the pullback.
Technical Outlook
Bearish Continuation Setup (Sell Bias)
On the 1-hour timeframe, the broader trend from the all-time high remains intact, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement zones that could provide resistance. If 3026 holds as resistance, we anticipate further downside, with the potential to revisit deeper levels.
XAUUSD
Short / Sell
Entry: 3026
TP: Open
SL: 3038
Note: past profit do not predict future profits
Risk 0.5-1%
TP1 3023
TP2 3022
TP3 3020
TP4 3016
Bullish Continuation Setup (Buy Dip Opportunity)
Despite the recent sell-off, the higher timeframes remain bullish, suggesting that this pullback could present a buying opportunity.
The 2994 zone now acts as resistance-turned-support, aligning with a wickless candle, signaling a potential liquidity grab. If this area holds, it offers an attractive long setup targeting a continuation towards new highs.
XAUUSD
Long / Buy
Entry: 2993
TP: Open
SL: 2980
Note: past profit do not predict future profits
Risk 0.5-1%
TP1 2996
TP2 2998
TP3 3000
TP4 3003
Next week's move.
Fundamental Factors to Watch
Gold remains bullish on the higher timeframes, supported by macro-economic trends and fundamental factors:
1. Federal Reserve Policy & FOMC Impact
Last week’s FOMC minutes reinforced expectations of rate cuts later this year, keeping gold demand elevated.
Any dovish shift from Powell or Fed speakers could provide additional upside momentum.
2. U.S. Dollar & Inflation Data
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has struggled to maintain strength, offering further support to gold.
Key inflation reports next week, including CPI and PPI, could dictate short-term sentiment.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Safe-Haven Demand
Ongoing global uncertainties continue to favor gold as a hedge, limiting deep pullbacks.
Gold’s structure presents two key trade opportunities:
Sell from 3026 if resistance holds, targeting lower levels.
Buy the dip at 2994 if support confirms, targeting new highs.
Friday saw a notable shift in momentum as bearish pressure led to a significant pullback from recent all-time highs. This move created a swift correction, filling inefficiencies left behind by the previous bullish impulse.
On the 4-hour timeframe, a well-defined head and shoulders pattern formed, with the neckline breaking at 3026, triggering a sharp sell-off. Price found support at the 3000 psychological level, leading to a corrective bounce that efficiently filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) left by the initial move.
🔹 Key Level: 3026 – Watching for this to act as new resistance for potential continuation to the downside.
🔹 Support Zone: 3000 – Held as a key level during the pullback.
Technical Outlook
Bearish Continuation Setup (Sell Bias)
On the 1-hour timeframe, the broader trend from the all-time high remains intact, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement zones that could provide resistance. If 3026 holds as resistance, we anticipate further downside, with the potential to revisit deeper levels.
XAUUSD
Short / Sell
Entry: 3026
TP: Open
SL: 3038
Note: past profit do not predict future profits
Risk 0.5-1%
TP1 3023
TP2 3022
TP3 3020
TP4 3016
Bullish Continuation Setup (Buy Dip Opportunity)
Despite the recent sell-off, the higher timeframes remain bullish, suggesting that this pullback could present a buying opportunity.
The 2994 zone now acts as resistance-turned-support, aligning with a wickless candle, signaling a potential liquidity grab. If this area holds, it offers an attractive long setup targeting a continuation towards new highs.
XAUUSD
Long / Buy
Entry: 2993
TP: Open
SL: 2980
Note: past profit do not predict future profits
Risk 0.5-1%
TP1 2996
TP2 2998
TP3 3000
TP4 3003
Next week's move.
Fundamental Factors to Watch
Gold remains bullish on the higher timeframes, supported by macro-economic trends and fundamental factors:
1. Federal Reserve Policy & FOMC Impact
Last week’s FOMC minutes reinforced expectations of rate cuts later this year, keeping gold demand elevated.
Any dovish shift from Powell or Fed speakers could provide additional upside momentum.
2. U.S. Dollar & Inflation Data
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has struggled to maintain strength, offering further support to gold.
Key inflation reports next week, including CPI and PPI, could dictate short-term sentiment.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Safe-Haven Demand
Ongoing global uncertainties continue to favor gold as a hedge, limiting deep pullbacks.
Gold’s structure presents two key trade opportunities:
Sell from 3026 if resistance holds, targeting lower levels.
Buy the dip at 2994 if support confirms, targeting new highs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.