XAUUSD hit Targets and is now pulling back: Gold retrace Watch

Updated

We have all marveled at the massive move over last few weeks.
We have all expected a pullback (me too) long before this point.
We may well have topped now given a change in risk sentiment.

Fundamentals:
Trade Wars still loom but the sword swinging has slowed.
US economy and Fed Rate Cut outlooks changed late week.
Stock markets look to have rebounded with some confidence.

Technicals:
Green 4.618 at $1350 "should" have been the top of Impulse wave.
Elliott Wave theory concurs for a perfect 12345 structure of impulse.
Blow off top and sudden drop seems to indicate a topping formation.

Numbers:
1357-1361 may well be the top for a while.
1346-1348 is likely resistance for some time.
1343-1344 may invalidate ABC if it breaks up.

1332-1333 may well bounce it to higher highs.
1314-1315 is the textbook ABC retrace target.
1297-1298 remains critical to keeping uptrend.

Previous Analysis:
$1320 short Call (bit early but solid)
$1270 long Call (perfect entry long)
$1280 break Call (warning just in time)
$1300 long to short (perfect entries)
$1380 longer term (currently in play)

See some of my other Forex calls below.
I also plot Crypto and some Stocks, check my Profile Page.

EUR.USD top Call (perfect top, still in play)
GBP.USD dip Call (just in time, quick 70 pips)
XAU.USD to $1367? (caught most of the spike)
Silver Bounce scalp (Perfect entry, still in play)
DXY top call (Upthrust warning just in time)
SPX recent top (Fib extensions at work)
XAU.USD long to short (recent perfect entries)
USD.JPY short to long (recent perfect entries)
EUR.USD long term Short (the very tippy-top a year ago)
AUD.USD long term Short (almost at a long term target now)

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some plots also, not going to pretend.
But my plans offer PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT take profits.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

Note

Just hit first support and possible end of wave A. lets see if we get a bounce

Note

Zoomed in on the support zone, shows a near perfect "Ping" of the green 3.618 which makes the top of that zone

Note

Decent bounce after an exact Ping of the 3.618 this time

Note

Nice burst, but this fib of bounce says the 4.618 might call for a retest of say the 2.618

Note

Bounced right into the first Resistance, reaction here will be quite telling

Note

Back on short tf, we may have completed a 5wave impulse and 3wave correction, perhaps making ready for next leg up .

Note

Looking like a very viable wave B here

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Still making progress towards wave B target

but about to run into some resistance, lets see how it goes from here.

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Note

Looking through microscope of 5min chart, the bounce had a good Fib rhythm going, and its natural end falls exactly within the resistance zone originally targeted for wave B (but shown as sub waves ABC here)

the blue fib series has the 8.236 and 9.6y18 bracketed the previously mapped resistance zone, so this looks pretty solid for next leg up.

Again, it is possible that the correction is DONE as just continue up from here. But it would better and more 'healthy' to have a clean correction now, rather than a major crash from having flown too close to the sun ....

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Note

Almost there

quite exciting actually!

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Note

Target for wave B hit

and in main view

Now lets see if it actually drops here. This could just keep going up now.

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Note

So we had a spike and retrace today based on Trump tweets and such. But It seems this ABC might actually play out after all

thought it was going bull today, but after the big wobble, it seems to be acting as if spike was not here, respecting resistance as it should have all along ...

Closeup, this B was as originally placed, counting on that resistance zone

and as shown by the blue arrows, that zone is now being acknowledged even after spiking through it in both directions.

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Note

Fib of the Bounce, very undecided but this Ping just now might be relevant (possible downside)

EuroMotif

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