Updated 11 hours ago

Analysis of gold for next week

2 days ago

This week, the price range of gold was $200. It finally closed as a positive candlestick with an upper shadow, and the length of the shadow was comparable to that of the real body. This indicates that the bulls and bears were evenly matched. Overall, it showed a pattern of wide-range oscillation. In the short term, it maintained an oscillation at a high level, adopting a corrective method of exchanging time for space, which is favorable for the bulls. The fundamental factors supporting the bulls have not changed at present, so it can't be said that there is a trend reversal. Since it has risen a lot, it just needs a new round of accumulation of upward momentum, and there will be an oscillating process. This is in terms of the long-term cycle. There will be news over the weekend, which is bound to impact the market next week. The price of gold will temporarily continue to fluctuate violently, and it is expected that this will be the norm throughout May. As time goes by, the 10-week moving average (MA10) will gradually move upward, and this position should be closely watched in the later stage. In the past, the biggest pullbacks all relied on this support to move upward, and whenever there is a significant downward adjustment, it is an opportunity to go long.
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11 hours ago

Trade active

This weekend, the two sides of China and the United States carried out two days of negotiations as scheduled. It seems that there are a large number of topics in the negotiations, with a wide range of involvements. However, both sides are still striving to reach a consensus. Otherwise, there would be no need for such intensive talks for two days. Some people believe that after such a long negotiation without any conclusion, it is bearish. On the contrary, in my opinion, at this moment, the absence of bad news is good news. Based on the "marathon-like" duration of the current negotiations, we need to be vigilant against the deviation between the expected and actual results of this round of negotiations. Secondly, regarding the India-Pakistan conflict, after the mediation led by the United States, India and Pakistan have agreed to a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire. Even if this round of Sino-US negotiations achieves an optimistic result, the price of gold should not break below the level of 3,300. If it breaks below 3,300 and creates a new low below 3,275, then it is highly likely that the next target for gold will be the high point range of 3,160 - 3,150, which was set during the trade war. Conversely, if gold can hold above the level of 3,300, it is very likely to follow the trend of the previous wave, break through the range, stand above the level of 3,360 - 3,370, and then gold will continue to return above 3,400.

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