Using FUNDAMENTALS as timing CONFLUENCE (NFP week)
BIG PICTURE UPDATE:
- We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024.
- Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims
- Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE
- With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now)
SCENARIOS:
- SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower [this is the ideal scenario]
- SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower
_____________________________
- Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
- We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024.
- Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims
- Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE
- With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now)
SCENARIOS:
- SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower [this is the ideal scenario]
- SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower
_____________________________
- Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
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