Gold | News Review and Its Impact on Gold Market
Updated
US Labor Market Data Preview - Friday, April 5, 2024
To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release.
Previous NFP Data:
Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs
Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y)
Unemployment rate: 3.9%
Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June.
NFP Forecasts:
Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs.
Crucial Data Point:
Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate.
Technical Analysis for Gold:
Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices.
Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330.
Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330
Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277
Please note: This trend could change based on today's news.
Additional Considerations:
Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal.
Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release.
Previous NFP Data:
Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs
Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y)
Unemployment rate: 3.9%
Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June.
NFP Forecasts:
Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs.
Crucial Data Point:
Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate.
Technical Analysis for Gold:
Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices.
Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330.
Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330
Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277
Please note: This trend could change based on today's news.
Additional Considerations:
Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal.
Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
Note
NFP Assessment for March 📊Actual Number: 303K 📈
Expected Number: 212K 📉
Previous Number: 275K 🔄
Result: Dollar Positive 💵
Average Hourly Earnings Growth Rate Monthly Changes 💰
Actual Number: 0.3% ⬆️
Expected Number: 0.3% ⬆️
Previous Number: 0.1% ⬆️
Unemployment Rate Index 📉
Actual Number: 3.8% 📊
Expected Number: 3.9% 📈
Previous Number: 3.9% 📉
Result: Dollar Positive 💵
Note
NiceNote
Update:Note
The complete and precise trend prediction was followed accurately. Note
Note
After Good stop-hunt:
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