Engaging my Selling order / #1,952.80 on the cards
Gold's general commentary: So far Gold has failed at attempt to break the #2,021.80 Resistance Zone on Hourly 4 chart, despite an #5 consecutive session of gains and Annual High’s test. Keep in mind that #2,000.80 barrier firstly have to broken on Hourly 4 chart to continue the Buying sequence, and with DX on spiral downtrend, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t gain with every Hourly candle towards #2,000.80 psychological barrier once again and fully confirm Bullish underlying Short-term trend (if Core CPI prices no surprises course) and #1,952.80 rejects the additional losses. That would be a very same development on any other occasion, regardless CPI is priced in throughout today’s session which could be even more negative-wise for DX and Bond Yields on Higher timeframe (expect Volatility ahead Intra-day). Interesting fractal on Daily chart where Price-action was Trading above the Upper zone of Bollinger bands, which was instantly rejected as always Price-action tends to Trade within Bollinger Bands since #2002 Year. Historically, last time Gold was rejected above the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart (January #6, #2021), Gold extended the Medium-term decline of more than #150 points on the aftermath (currently, Price-action may Target #1,952.80 towards Lower Bollinger Band line). Usd-Jpy pair is testing Lower High’s on it’s Daily Chart’s Ascending Channel (and eminent rejection), DX is way below Neutral Rectangle for a while now. Personally, I expect Gold to successfully break #2,000.80 if #1,952.80 Selling extension rejects the Price-action, as a series of High impact data are released (Chinese, German, UK and US Manufacturing PMI and most importantly, U.S. CPI).
Technical analysis: Selling sequence and aggressive Volatility came as no Technical surprise after yesterday’s U.S. session opening which caused Bond Yields to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #70 point Hourly 1 chart’s Price-action decline. Hourly 4 chart turned Neutral but Daily chart is still Bearish (current Selling pressure made shift from Bearish to Neutral), which may be hinting towards #1,952.80 again (reason of current pullback are Yields on Daily chart’s recovery candles and much needed correction of Overbought levels). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bullish full scale sustainability towards Upper levels yet, as surely I cannot rule out additional losses soon. Price-action is Trading around the Support on Hourly 4 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, yesterday's session Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick confirmation pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (Investors parking capital into riskier assets). At the moment, Investors should place their capital on equity markets (away from Gold), which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold Prices are still on High levels regardless and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive decline follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the downwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Neutral values but still Fundamental pressure is evident. As discussed, prepare for huge Volatility / rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). My estimation even shows #1,678.80 possibility (Long-term) once #1,900.80 benchmark is broken. Weekly chart (#1W) regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more weeks (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same / valid.
Fundamental analysis: Gold ignored #4 out of #4 High impact macro-economic announcements (including last week’s NFP reading) and was Trading against the news, indicating elemental Volatile trend and that Russian invasion news are driving the markets at the moment. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Average Volumed, Selling Price-action throughout today’s session. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance zone. However, if #2,003.80 breaks, Gold may Target the #2,021.80 extension, while break of #1,952.80 may attract Sellers and drag the Price-action towards #1,917.80 Support zone (former Medium-term Resistance). This is one of the biggest-proportion Selling impulses since #2012 and by historic resemblance, every Gold’s Intra-day declines (#50 points or more) should be immediately Sold. Consequent to recent Bear momentum, Weekly Price-action is Trading within #1,980’s, potentially eyeing a run to another layer of Support line, the top edge of a Lower High’s peak, continuing to push Gold on Lower levels, constantly applying Selling pressure. While current move was likely enough to remove a bigger portion of the Buyers from the market, Gold will unlikely gain anymore, at least for today's session. Investors which were seeking for possible Buying opportunities, should wait for Selling pressure to settle, as Buying sequence was near exhaustion.
My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,983.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,952.80 Support zone with my Selling order. I was ready to Buy Gold early on throughout yesterday' session, but correction was so powerful and broken all re-Buy points, making me believe that there is still room for downtrend. #2,000.80 barrier break invalidates Selling potential.
Technical analysis: Selling sequence and aggressive Volatility came as no Technical surprise after yesterday’s U.S. session opening which caused Bond Yields to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #70 point Hourly 1 chart’s Price-action decline. Hourly 4 chart turned Neutral but Daily chart is still Bearish (current Selling pressure made shift from Bearish to Neutral), which may be hinting towards #1,952.80 again (reason of current pullback are Yields on Daily chart’s recovery candles and much needed correction of Overbought levels). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bullish full scale sustainability towards Upper levels yet, as surely I cannot rule out additional losses soon. Price-action is Trading around the Support on Hourly 4 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, yesterday's session Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick confirmation pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (Investors parking capital into riskier assets). At the moment, Investors should place their capital on equity markets (away from Gold), which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold Prices are still on High levels regardless and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive decline follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the downwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Neutral values but still Fundamental pressure is evident. As discussed, prepare for huge Volatility / rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). My estimation even shows #1,678.80 possibility (Long-term) once #1,900.80 benchmark is broken. Weekly chart (#1W) regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more weeks (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same / valid.
Fundamental analysis: Gold ignored #4 out of #4 High impact macro-economic announcements (including last week’s NFP reading) and was Trading against the news, indicating elemental Volatile trend and that Russian invasion news are driving the markets at the moment. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Average Volumed, Selling Price-action throughout today’s session. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance zone. However, if #2,003.80 breaks, Gold may Target the #2,021.80 extension, while break of #1,952.80 may attract Sellers and drag the Price-action towards #1,917.80 Support zone (former Medium-term Resistance). This is one of the biggest-proportion Selling impulses since #2012 and by historic resemblance, every Gold’s Intra-day declines (#50 points or more) should be immediately Sold. Consequent to recent Bear momentum, Weekly Price-action is Trading within #1,980’s, potentially eyeing a run to another layer of Support line, the top edge of a Lower High’s peak, continuing to push Gold on Lower levels, constantly applying Selling pressure. While current move was likely enough to remove a bigger portion of the Buyers from the market, Gold will unlikely gain anymore, at least for today's session. Investors which were seeking for possible Buying opportunities, should wait for Selling pressure to settle, as Buying sequence was near exhaustion.
My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,983.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,952.80 Support zone with my Selling order. I was ready to Buy Gold early on throughout yesterday' session, but correction was so powerful and broken all re-Buy points, making me believe that there is still room for downtrend. #2,000.80 barrier break invalidates Selling potential.
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- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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