LIVE#4! THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
SUMMARY - This is the 12/01, 15-min bar, 80-hour generic (not detailed, no time), CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from the previous post "#004 GOLD 15-HOUR EXTRAPOLATION EMERGENCY" and the explosion to 2070s. The link is in related ideas link below. First and foremost, I TRIED HARD AF to nail this move the previous weeks. I saw the whole thing yesterday and announced price action up to the final spike to 2052, including the rug pull from 49 overnight. Had I not been restricted from updating, I would said 2057 and call it a day simply bc it's been rejected 3-4 times. But in #004, I originally CALLED FOR 2068-2070 IN 15 HOURS. What was so special about today? Powell said blah blah, rate cuts, blah blah.
NOW WHAT? - 2140 on Monday, then 2080 again on Monday, 2200-2220 on Tuesday-Wednesday. 2140 again on Thursday. Why does it have to high vol like this? The last 3 weeks you've seen me forecasted ALL NOT CRAZY ROUTES. What we have now is THE CRAZY ROUTE. So since we were late for 2120 on 11/29, we are making up for it on 12/04. But that's NOT ENOUGH. So we do 2200-2240 by 12/06, where my original date is 12/11-12.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. -- DUE TO UPDATE RESTRICTION, I'M NOT DOING THAT --
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy and more updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Please hit like/boost button.
NOW WHAT? - 2140 on Monday, then 2080 again on Monday, 2200-2220 on Tuesday-Wednesday. 2140 again on Thursday. Why does it have to high vol like this? The last 3 weeks you've seen me forecasted ALL NOT CRAZY ROUTES. What we have now is THE CRAZY ROUTE. So since we were late for 2120 on 11/29, we are making up for it on 12/04. But that's NOT ENOUGH. So we do 2200-2240 by 12/06, where my original date is 12/11-12.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. -- DUE TO UPDATE RESTRICTION, I'M NOT DOING THAT --
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy and more updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Please hit like/boost button.
Note
12:01 4:47 PM ET, I KNOW, THE UPDATE THING IS STUPID.a) that's LITERALLY the whole point
b) but, so I can't drop everything like I did before
c) but, believe me... I checked this out already over and over
d) we will know Monday morning if this legit or not
e) I have no reason to doubt this outcome right now
Order cancelled
12/01 7:08 PM ET THIS POST HAS ENDED. DOUBLE CHECKED THE AGAIN, AND DID NOT COME OUT RIGHT. THE END.Note
7:26 PM, I CAN'T PROOF IT ...a) I thought I did
b) when I tried again, keep coming up blank and blank
Note
12/02 3:18 PM ET.. THE FIRST PART OF THIS IS RIGHT...a) we will get 2110-ish on Monday
b) and we will get 2140 on Tuesday
c) but the smackdown to 2065-ish lasts until Thursday
d) so I'll correct this with second draft
Note
9:10 PM NOT TRUE EITHER... a) I can't get anything to agree...
b) the only obvious is it's going to test the high 2080, maybe push 2090
c) and then checks to 2065-2070
d) what's next is not apparent at all....
Note
12/03 1:08 AM I ALSO CANNOT DISPROVE IT...a) what a headache...
b) first I think I know..
c) I see 2450 by late January or early February
d) I've said this for sometime, but it needed 2120 and 2220 to get hit both ahead of mid-December
e) since FOMC is 12/13, I placed the 2220 on 12/11-12
f) that meant that 2120 had to get hit on 11/29 all things considered
g) it's 12/03 today, and we only are at 2071...
h) so the says UNDENIABLY that 2120 gets hit MONDAY...
i) how we get the rest of is SO HARD.. but as of right now... this map (chart at at the top) IS REASONABLE FOR SURE
j) it's just not the #1 statistical route
k) so we need a new post for sure
Trade closed manually
SO THEN THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS THE REPLACEMENT DRAFT 2:
Note
7:43 PM ET, DRAFT 1 REOPENED.. UNTIL IT IS DISPROVENa) why?
b) bc it'st the one THAT HIT
c) so now, not so crazy anymore
d) we are already 2096.xx as I type..
e) so 16 pts from fulfilling both first 2 requirements for Monday,
f) AND IT'S STILL ONLY SUNDAY..
g) so looking FINE AF!!
Note
8:13 PM ET, is 2089 enough?, sigh...a) not really, no
b) but nothing is ABSOLUTE...
c) I know some guys still waiting for the gap to fill at 1832...
d) and some years later... it' might just fill that
e) what I am saying is if we hit 2080 or even 2077 OBVIOUS LONG
f) at 2091.xx as I am typing.. NOT SO OBVIOUS...
Note
8:43 PM ET 2086.28 after tagging 2082xx..a) almost there
b) but BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL...
c) SWING VOL floor is at 2045, or 100 under the high...
d) at 2086.55 as I am typing, we are closer to the floor than the ceiling..
Note
9:35 PM ET... 2066 is really the entry herea) I don't know if it will hit
b) but if it does, it needs to do it by tomorrow 8:30 AM
c) then we buy it there and wait for 2220
d) BUT ...
e) if doesn't get there, and 2082-83 was the floor (I doubt this right now)
f) then ceiling is 2240 for this week (if this draft)
g) or 12/20 (draft 2)
h) as of this hour, I don't have reason do doubt this draft yet
i) i also stopped shorting and haven't bought anything
j) just waiting for some signals to say bottom
k) NONE OF THEM SAY THAT YET
Note
10:10 PM ET... a) so this draft calls for 2220 on 12/05-06, but it really should be 12/07 (AM)
b) today is 12/03, so that's Thursday morning
c) I have 2 signals of a bottom, but they weak
d) momentum says there's a 1 in 5 chance of nailing 2066 around midn-night
e ) we will know soon if that's legit
f) if you see it, BUY BUY BUY!
g) meantime, this can drag out until tomorrow afternoon to get reliable floor
h) hard to know unless I'm watching all the time
i) and I am going to sleep early
Note
12:38 AM ET... REMEMBER THAT KID THAT HATED ARCS FOR SOME REASON?a) for chart above: this one for you my dog...
b) j/k, but this works until it doesn't
c) in the mean time, in IDC XAUUSD ticker, 2081.xx floor vs 2146.xx high good enough for this draft's route
d) but it's very awkward looking...
e) not good reason to doubt it but my instincts (which are terrible)
f) say that it should be DRAFT 2 that wins this week
g) the evidence points to DRAFT 2, but the current price action undeniably follows this DRAFT you are reading...
h) just UNUSUALLY early for making up for lost time
i) so I am a bit suspicious here that it maybe something I can't see.. but not necessarily bearish
j) good night
Note
1:26 PM, it now looks like this: a) for chart above:
b) considering the price action we have had
c) this will be draft 3 published tomorrow
Note
2:28 AM ET, EARLIER I SAID 2066 was a good spot...a) now if this breaks here at 73-74...
b) this could land on 2051-2054...
c) I can't see any lower than that...
d) a sick swing though.. but machines doing the trading...
e) don't be caught off guard
Note
7:32 AM WARNING OF BEAR ODDS INCREASING:Note
a) bulls need to defend this spot HARD AND SWING UP.. OR ELSE..b) not enough time to explain
Note
12:12 PM ET, that's the best warning I could give above, with the little time I had.a) this changes everything
b) but we need to see if bulls are dead or just pretending
c) the number of outcomes that are legit are too many to even chart
d) just gotta wait this out
Order cancelled
1:01 PM ET 2024.XX ARE GOING TO 1920? AND 1840? AND IF SO WHY?a) bulls need to respond here..
b) if they don't respond, it's 1990, then 1920, then 1870 and 1840...
c) bc the setup exists and the pressure is pushing DOWN HARD
d) I can't tell you why
e) I can tell you to watch for the down side, it might ugly
Note
1:10 PM ET I DONT HAVE TIME TO MAP IT SO HERE:a) almost straight down...
b) but why?
c) I don't know.. but it has unlocked all necessary curves and bollingers for this move...
d) YOU'VE BEEN WARNED
Note
e) 1:14 PM ET.. BULLS HAVE TO SHOW UP NOW... not in a few hours... they are in trouble...Note
2:25 PM, THIS POST IS DONE WITH, HERE IS NEXT ONE:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.