Gold price focus: 3300-3350 range
1. Today's latest gold market dynamics
Fed rate cut expectations and dollar trend
The Fed's June FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed that "there may be two rate cuts this year", and the market expects that the rate cut cycle may start in September.
The US dollar index fell slightly to around 96, showing a "weak but not collapsed" pattern, because Powell said that the Trump administration's tariff policy delayed the easing policy.
Risk aversion sentiment heats up
US stocks diverged: technology stocks (such as Nvidia and Tesla) plummeted, and funds flowed to gold for risk aversion.
Geopolitical risks: Iran's nuclear facilities continue to operate, the situation in the Middle East is tense, and the International Atomic Energy Agency intervenes in verification, pushing up the safe-haven demand for gold.
Trade tariff risks are approaching
The deadline for the United States to suspend tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions.
Trade tariff risks are approaching
The suspension of US tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions.
Economic data contradictions:
Weak manufacturing: The ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to 49.0 for four consecutive months in June, but the number of JOLTs job vacancies in May unexpectedly rose to 7.769 million, indicating that the labor market is "strong on the surface."
2. Technical analysis of gold trend
Short-term trend (daily level)
Support level: $3300-3310 (5-day/10-day moving average), $3276-3280 (key psychological level).
Resistance level: $3350-3358 (yesterday's high), $3374 (golden ratio 0.618 retracement level), $3400.
Technical pattern:
If it breaks through $3,350, it may test $3,400;
If it falls below $3,300, it may fall to $3,276.
The daily Bollinger Bands narrowed, and the short-term direction faced a choice.
Medium- and long-term trends
Bullish factors: Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and inflationary pressures.
Potential risks: If the July non-agricultural data is strong (released on July 3), it may reverse the rate cut expectations and suppress gold prices.
3. Today's trading strategy recommendations
Short-term trading:
Bullish: If the gold price stands above $3,330, you can consider buying on dips, with a target price of $3,350-3,360.
Bearish: If it falls below $3,330, it may fall to $3,300, and you can short in the short term, with a target price of $3,300-3,270.
Bottom line: Watch for a breakout of the $3,300-3,350 range.
1. Today's latest gold market dynamics
Fed rate cut expectations and dollar trend
The Fed's June FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed that "there may be two rate cuts this year", and the market expects that the rate cut cycle may start in September.
The US dollar index fell slightly to around 96, showing a "weak but not collapsed" pattern, because Powell said that the Trump administration's tariff policy delayed the easing policy.
Risk aversion sentiment heats up
US stocks diverged: technology stocks (such as Nvidia and Tesla) plummeted, and funds flowed to gold for risk aversion.
Geopolitical risks: Iran's nuclear facilities continue to operate, the situation in the Middle East is tense, and the International Atomic Energy Agency intervenes in verification, pushing up the safe-haven demand for gold.
Trade tariff risks are approaching
The deadline for the United States to suspend tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions.
Trade tariff risks are approaching
The suspension of US tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions.
Economic data contradictions:
Weak manufacturing: The ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to 49.0 for four consecutive months in June, but the number of JOLTs job vacancies in May unexpectedly rose to 7.769 million, indicating that the labor market is "strong on the surface."
2. Technical analysis of gold trend
Short-term trend (daily level)
Support level: $3300-3310 (5-day/10-day moving average), $3276-3280 (key psychological level).
Resistance level: $3350-3358 (yesterday's high), $3374 (golden ratio 0.618 retracement level), $3400.
Technical pattern:
If it breaks through $3,350, it may test $3,400;
If it falls below $3,300, it may fall to $3,276.
The daily Bollinger Bands narrowed, and the short-term direction faced a choice.
Medium- and long-term trends
Bullish factors: Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and inflationary pressures.
Potential risks: If the July non-agricultural data is strong (released on July 3), it may reverse the rate cut expectations and suppress gold prices.
3. Today's trading strategy recommendations
Short-term trading:
Bullish: If the gold price stands above $3,330, you can consider buying on dips, with a target price of $3,350-3,360.
Bearish: If it falls below $3,330, it may fall to $3,300, and you can short in the short term, with a target price of $3,300-3,270.
Bottom line: Watch for a breakout of the $3,300-3,350 range.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.