Overview
This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements.
Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis
We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top.
Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios:
1 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,950
Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support
Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum
2 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,650
Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle
Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area
Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend.
Bullish Continuation Targets
TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension)
These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles.
Supporting Technicals
RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum
MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe
Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave
Macro Fundamentals & Correlations
Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold
Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold
DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold
Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD
Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum.
Scenario Interactions:
If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050.
If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold.
Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion.
Scenario Interactions:
If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite.
If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets.
A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity.
These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario.
In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance.
From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey.
Conclusion
We present a multi-phased path for gold where:
An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak
A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers
A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond
This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements.
Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis
We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top.
Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios:
1 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,950
Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support
Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum
2 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,650
Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle
Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area
Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend.
Bullish Continuation Targets
TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension)
These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles.
Supporting Technicals
RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum
MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe
Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave
Macro Fundamentals & Correlations
Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold
Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold
DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold
Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD
Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum.
Scenario Interactions:
If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050.
If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold.
Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion.
Scenario Interactions:
If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite.
If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets.
A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity.
These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario.
In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance.
From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey.
Conclusion
We present a multi-phased path for gold where:
An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak
A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers
A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond
This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.