Good Morning Tradingview,
Apologies for the delay in my recent posts over the past two days. Unfortunately, this was due to an oversight on my part. I missed a key detail in the trading platform's rules and mistakenly included my watermark on the charts. As a result, several of my posts were removed, and I was temporarily unable to post for 24 hours. I completely understand and respect the platform's guidelines, but I wanted to keep you informed and ensure you're not left wondering about my absence.
Here’s a breakdown of potential entry points and trade management based on the chart I've shared, aligned with multi-touch confirmation and The Trinity Rule. We'll focus on how to approach both the bullish and bearish scenarios with structured decision-making:
1. Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
The price currently appears to be testing a weekly trendline (third touch), which often signals a potential bullish continuation after the third touch confirms a reversal or trend continuation.
Here's how to structure the trade:
Entry Point:
Wait for a Breakout: If the price breaks and closes above the upper consolidation zone, look for a confirmed breakout with momentum. Avoid entering prematurely, as false breakouts can occur.
Confirm with Retest (Higher Probability Entry): After the breakout, wait for a potential retest of the consolidation zone or the top of the ascending wedge. A retest that holds (with rejection wicks or bullish engulfing patterns) adds confirmation for a long position.
Reduced Risk Entry: You can enter with a smaller position on the breakout and add to the position on the retest, increasing exposure as the price confirms your bias.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place the stop-loss just below the consolidation zone or below the retested area. This level serves as your risk threshold, accounting for potential fakeouts.
If you are entering after the third touch of the trendline, the stop-loss can be placed below this key level to minimize risk.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: Aim for the next key resistance zone at around 2,576 based on historical price action.
Second Target: If momentum is strong, hold a portion of the trade for a larger move toward 2,592 (upper resistance). Trail the stop as price continues to move upward.
2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Path):
If the price fails to break above the current consolidation and rejects the trendline, it indicates a potential bearish reversal. The descending path might target the 1-hour liquidity zone around 2,541, where you can expect the price to react.
Entry Point:
Breakout of Consolidation: If the price breaks below the consolidation, this signals a bearish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout, with a strong bearish candle close below support.
Aggressive Entry: You may consider entering on the third rejection at the top of the consolidation, especially if there's a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing).
Reduced Risk Entry: Wait for the price to break below the consolidation and enter on a retest of the broken support, confirming the bearish momentum. This provides a lower-risk entry with better confirmation.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above the consolidation or the most recent swing high where rejection occurred, giving enough room for market fluctuations. Ensure that the stop isn’t too tight, as you could get caught in price noise.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: The 15-minute liquidity zone around 2,560 is a reasonable first target, where you may partially close your position.
Final Target: The key 1-hour liquidity zone at 2,541 is the more substantial target for a full bearish continuation. Be mindful of how price reacts near this zone; you may want to take profits before a reversal happens.
Management Tips:
Scaling In and Out: Whether bullish or bearish, consider splitting your position into smaller entries. This allows you to enter part of the trade with confirmation and add more as price action continues in your favor.
Use of Flags for Re-entries: After the initial breakout in either direction, look for flags or continuation patterns to re-enter the trade or add to an existing position. For example, after a bullish breakout, wait for a flag and enter on the next wave up.
Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: As the price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits. This is especially important during strong momentum moves to avoid giving back profits to the market.
Psychological Considerations:
Avoid FOMO: Don’t rush into trades if you're unsure about the breakout or failure of a level. Let the price action confirm your bias.
Avoid Overtrading: Stick to your Rule of Three guidelines. Ensure at least three confirming factors align with your analysis before entering.