The S&P U.S. Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell below investor expectations on Tuesday, sliding to a four-month low of 47.9 vs. The forecast level is stable at 48.2 from November.
Market appetite is distorted by erroneous data and investors are starting to temper expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), with average expectations of The market is pricing in about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts through the end of the year. This is in stark contrast to the dot chart of Fed interest rate expectations, which currently shows a maximum rate cut of 75 basis points through 2024.
Market sentiment will be buoyant this week as the first 2024 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print is expected on Friday. December's NFP is expected to show a slight decline in US job additions from 199K to 168K.
NFP watchers will have to weather the mid-week crunch, with ISM Manufacturing and the latest Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, followed by ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday in the week ending December 29.