Trendline Break and Retest: Gold broke a descending trendline but made a false breakout, returning into the range. This indicates indecision or a lack of strong follow-through in either direction.
Short-term Movement Expectation: Price is likely to drop to the major support level at 2621. This aligns with the idea of filling the range before making another attempt at testing 2650.
Swing Trade Setup: A potential move to the 2540-2585 swing range is plausible if the monthly candle needs to fill that area. This is likely a fake-out scenario designed to trap traders before a stronger directional move.
Trading Strategy:
Swing traders might consider taking long positions in the 2540-2585 range for a potential reversal.
Wait for confirmation (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns or strong volume at key levels) before entering trades.
Keep an eye on the 2621 key support, as a failure to hold here may accelerate the move lower.
This approach combines short-term risk with potential long-term upside if the price respects these identified levels. Always manage risk with appropriate stop-loss levels and monitor macroeconomic factors influencing gold.