Will gold not break out of the channel today?
Updated
Based on the current situation in the gold market and the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, we can see that the short-term trend of gold prices will be significantly affected by the data. At the same time, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and global geopolitical risks also provided support for gold. Combining technical and fundamental aspects, the following is my analysis and operational suggestions on today’s gold trend:
Fundamental analysis:
Non-agricultural data:
As the market focus, non-agricultural data will greatly affect market sentiment. If the data shows weakness in the U.S. job market, it may increase market expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve, thus pushing gold prices higher.
Fed rate cut expectations:
The market currently expects a high probability (77%) of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December. Cutting interest rates typically causes the dollar to weaken, making gold more attractive and thus helping gold prices rise.
Geopolitical risks:
Global geopolitical turmoil continues to increase, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and also provided support for gold.
Technical aspect:
From a technical perspective, gold has strong resistance near 2655, which may also be a key point in the short term. If this resistance level is exceeded, gold may rise further. On the contrary, if the gold price cannot break through near 2655, it may fall back.
Operation suggestions:
1. Go long in the 2643-45 range:
Entry point: If the gold price falls back to the 2643-45 range, you can consider going long. This position is close to the recent support range, and if the non-agricultural data is not bad, gold prices may find support in this range, pushing the price to rebound.
Stop loss setting: Set the stop loss at 2636 to prevent the risk of breaking through the support level.
Target: The target price is set in the 2655-65 range, which is the technical resistance range that gold has faced in the near future. If the price is close to 2655-65, you can consider reducing or closing your position.
2. Shorting near 2665:
Entry point: If the gold price rebounds to around 2665, you can consider shorting. This position is close to the upper resistance zone. If market sentiment weakens or non-agricultural data is weak, gold may fall back.
Stop Loss Setting: Stop loss can be set near 2671 to prevent the market from breaking above the overhead resistance.
Target: The target price is around 2655. If the price breaks through 2655 and falls further, you can consider holding a short position, and the target can be extended to the lower support zone.
Summary of trading ideas:
Sell high and buy low: In the short term, you can go long in the 2643-45 range and pay attention to the resistance in the 2655-65 range; consider shorting near 2665. If gold breaks through the key support level (such as 2655), you can hold short orders Waiting for further downside.
Risk management: In every transaction, it is crucial to set a reasonable stop loss to ensure that it can cope with market fluctuations and emergencies.
Pay attention to the release of non-agricultural data: Non-agricultural data will be the main driving force for gold price fluctuations in the short term. Therefore, it is recommended to make a trading plan before the data is released and adjust positions based on actual data performance.
Summarize:
The gold market is currently at a relatively sensitive moment and will be strongly affected by non-farm payrolls data in the short term. Maintaining a flexible trading strategy and combining technical and fundamental judgments can not only cope with short-term price fluctuations, but also achieve relatively stable operations based on long-term optimism about the rise of gold.
Trade active
Yesterday, gold technically faced suppression and fell in the volatile trading. It rose slightly and fell rapidly under pressure near 2653. The price of gold continued to fall and broke through the 2640 mark, reaching the lowest level of 2623, and finally closed at 2632. Today, it opened at 2633 in the Asian morning session and began to fall. It reached the lowest level of 2613 and started the volatile upward mode. It is currently oscillating at 2643. It has formed a "V" reverse pattern since the opening of the Asian morning session.
Today, there will be non-agricultural data and unemployment rate data. We should also combine data news in our operations.
From the current 4-hour trend, the upper short-term resistance focuses on the 2648-2653 line. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue the main short and follow the trend to look down. The upper strong resistance pressure focuses on the 2656-60 line. This position is also the watershed between the strength and weakness of long and short positions in the short term. Any pullback before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position is a short-selling opportunity. Keep the main tone of participating in the trend unchanged.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold at 2648-2653, stop loss at 2662, target at 2625-2630, break to target at 2606-2612;
Trade closed: target reached
Recently, I have been reminding people to operate within the range and not to follow orders in one direction.
Yesterday, gold fell after being under pressure near 2655. Today, it continued to fall in the early Asian session. The short-term short energy was basically released, and the key support of 2606 was close to the bottom. In addition, the US dollar began to fluctuate and fall. At present, gold and the US dollar are both at recent lows.
After the US dollar hit 108 from 100, the staged bulls are in place. Next, under the expectation of interest rate cuts, there is a high probability that it will fluctuate and fall.
Therefore, from the perspective of product linkage and fundamental factors, gold does not have the possibility of a sharp drop in the short term, but continues to fluctuate in the range of daily and weekly levels. The time point of the second sharp drop in gold focuses on the period before and after Trump's inauguration. This period of market sentiment and policy expectations will likely trigger a large-scale second bottoming out of gold, which will be the real bottom of gold.
Specifically, it is recommended to buy more at 2635/2633 before the release of non-agricultural data, and look up to 2645 and 2655.
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