I drawn some lines for S&D, fibs and S&R trend-lines. I see different possible scenarios in the following months. I still think fundamentals are bullish but as always, market manipulation is heavy and the whole Tax cuts, Fed hikes, and Bitcoin thing should be resolved (wether it explodes or by healthy correction) in the first half of next year.
If you go for the long run like me. I don't see gold going lower than 1100, which gives you a fairly safe number for calculating your maximum exposure. Remember that money printing by central banks means future inflation, it always lags several years, until next crisis hits. 1100 is the cost for gold to be produced (mined), if it breaks lower, supply is going down and therefore taking prices up again, extremely heavy support there.
Let's sit back and watch for better entry prices. This is just a paths theorizing exercise in order to be prepared.
If you go for the long run like me. I don't see gold going lower than 1100, which gives you a fairly safe number for calculating your maximum exposure. Remember that money printing by central banks means future inflation, it always lags several years, until next crisis hits. 1100 is the cost for gold to be produced (mined), if it breaks lower, supply is going down and therefore taking prices up again, extremely heavy support there.
Let's sit back and watch for better entry prices. This is just a paths theorizing exercise in order to be prepared.
Note
No clear signal for now. Holding on.Note
Clear sign of breakout to the south. This can potentially bring Gold back to 1200 area. If you are long, be prepared for even lower values in your risk calculus.Nice drop for buying cheap, 1200 is a zone for another major support. In any case, 1200 is a nice price for even potential lower values at 1100 or 1050 to enter again. Remember production cost is around 1100, so any price below those numbers will mean drop in offer, forcing price in the upward direction. I'm a bull, looking for a good price. I'll be monitoring this swing for potential buy opportunities but expect even months for the opportunities to appear.
Note
Went LONG again at 1248. Remember my trading profile is long term bull on GOLD. I've bought 1 ounce and will keep adding if I see cheap numbers as it moves lower. I expect it to reach even 1180 zone.Note
Long on SILVER too, at 15.88. Watch out for the FOMC statement on rates.Note
Both longs are working fine. 1260 currently. I'll hold these positions and increase them as I see pullbacks. With caution of course. Closing this idea, I'll follow up with a new chart for next targets. Remember that SHORTING this caged beast is not recommended. On the long term side, probabilities of seeing GOLD price lower than it's production cost at around 1100 are REALLY LOW. But even in difficult times for miners, there's little to no chance for price going lower than 1000/900, so you can always evaluate your risk on those numbers and keep the game safe in the long run.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.