Breakout or rejection ?
Updated
Pretty excellent risk-reward ratio. XAU/USD rejected the down trendline twice on August 7, 2020, and January 6, 2021.
If the price rejects the trendline, my chart says that potentially it will reach the final target on August 18, 2021.
The biggest question is whether the market is ready to fall deeper or buyers keep buying blindly because of inflation?
Research shows that gold prices don't correlate well with inflation, so when inflation rises, the price of gold isn't necessarily going to skyrocket. It's way more complex than that.
For example, in 2008, Gold price year high $1,023.50, and year low $692.50.
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2021
usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and closes above the down trendline.
Catalyst:
- FOMC
- US Unemployment
- PMI
- NFP
- CPI
If the price rejects the trendline, my chart says that potentially it will reach the final target on August 18, 2021.
The biggest question is whether the market is ready to fall deeper or buyers keep buying blindly because of inflation?
Research shows that gold prices don't correlate well with inflation, so when inflation rises, the price of gold isn't necessarily going to skyrocket. It's way more complex than that.
For example, in 2008, Gold price year high $1,023.50, and year low $692.50.
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2021
usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and closes above the down trendline.
Catalyst:
- FOMC
- US Unemployment
- PMI
- NFP
- CPI
Note
The analysis remain the same
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