THE HARD GOODBYE DRAFT 1 for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

THE HARD GOODBYE DRAFT 1

Introduction - Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine says that bulls are zombies. They are dead, but they just don't know it.

Details - Previous four forecasts was chasing 2150 by end of coming week. Despite "catching up" to trend", short to medium term regression waves are not moving up fast enough. This is A recipe for the "C" in Elliot Wave's A-B-C. In chart above, blue route is what bulls need to keep their dreams alive. The problem is that the dead can sleep, but they cannot dream. So then what?

1) both of these routes will hit 2050-ish this week
2) the odds of hitting 2050 is ridiculously high
3) bears can hit this SUNDAY NIGHT, but they don't have to
4) trend engine say they hit it before 8:30 AM ET event time (before NY OPEN)
5) that is Monday morning
6) bulls MUST! hold the line to 2050 to Tuesday morning...
7) if they do, it is unclear that they will be favored to complete blue route
8) but the odds of that happening must be respected

Cross Market Implications - Bitcoin should head for 56500. Still not sure about DX because the dollar reopened the door for 102.75. I am still short term bullish on SPX moving for 5225.

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Saturday 9:58 AM, The problem with bull route is:

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a) for chart above
b) even if we assume bears make it to Tuesday night where black arrow is
c) IT IS NOT OBVIOUS that gray route will NOT happen
d) it has to be obvious, there in lies the the danger
e) but to some it up, I opened shorts at 87 and will cover at 50-ish
f) I don't want this to hit on Monday morning
g) but IT CAN HIT SUNDAY NIGHT, that's the problem!!

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h) have a good weekend and see you Tuesday morning

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i) BTW - orange route has 2035 around NY OPEN Monday ..
j) AND hitting 2027 before the clock turns Tuesday NY TIME
k) meaning bears INTEND TO TAKE ALL OF IT BACK

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TYPO IN DETAILS SECTION. I meant recipe for "A of c of C" like this:

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a) for chart above, not a fan of Elliot Wave
b) but basically like that

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c) and FWIW later, if chart above is true, the obvious extrapolation is:

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SAT, 03/02, 9:20 PM ET, BTC is 61750 NOW... JUST A SMALL CHANGE
a) in the morning I said 60725 under 15 hours or by 3 AM ET sunday
b) give me until 6 AM ET, so and extra 3 hours on that call

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c) see 3 charts above, 11 hours ago, when it was 62010

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d) max pain is 59000 by 1 PM Sunday, but that's not really obvious
e) bc we don't know what reaction will be at 60725

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Sunday, 03/03, 1:29 AM ET, BTC at 62018, $8 move for last 13.5 hours is not a lot.
a) at 6 AM ET, if we still between 61700-62300...
b) short term vol 100 hour vol will have collapse 93-95%
c) if it stays between 61850-62150, then that's 95-97%
d) any tighter than that and you can get a real nasty surprise
e) and it IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE BEARISH, it's just favored to be

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f) and I didn't make "weekend adjustment" for this test
g) I haven't seen proof that you need one
h) if you had to "adjust for 5-day week", it should be SAT/WED not SAT/SUN
I) so that argument's terrible

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8:20 AM, SOME NOTES ON BITCOIN
a) I know it deserves its own post/series and although I'm a trend expert, still a bitcoin noob
b) that makes clueless to some details that is otherwise obvious to people who actually trade crypto
c) that said vol compression still very much on going at 62028 as I type
d) there's two observations that is notable:

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1) risk of bull spike is 66500, risk of bear spike is 56500-57500
2) and the details of this situation are, give me 10-15 min:
>> by the way, what is defined as "short term vary greatly depending on each person but also each TICKER
>> and besides the obvious, what may not be obvious is:
>> if it's a stock on the NASSDAQ, then it's 26 hours
>> bc each trading day is 7.5 hours, add pre- and after-market (that matters)
>> that's a bit more than 8.5 hours X 3 days, so 3 day trend for a stock is 26 hours
>> for gold/forex, 3 days would be 69 hours (bc 23/ hours per day X 3)
>> but for crypto, 3 days would be 72 hours BUT IF YOU COUNT AS % OF TRADING WEEK
>> the "3-day" for anything that is "5-day" is 60% of a week bc 3/5=.60
>> but .60 of a week for crypto is 100.8 hours (absolute technical is 97-99)
>> given that Bitcoin DO NOT observe bank holidays, it's totally fair to say that
>> the "3-day" short term definition for Bitcoin is 100 hours

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a) in chart above in the diagram:
b) vol ratio means "micro- to short-term vol" DIVIDED BY "short- to medium-term vol"
c) so a break of vol collapse/compression happens when...
d) short term vol EXPLODES when long term vol is STILL COLLAPSING
e) so that ratio literally "moon shoots"
f) in chart above the two vertical lines were 3 AM AND 6 AM
g) my method spotted the first move, but read that vol was still collapsing
h) that's why I asked for 3 MORE HOURS
I ) but after 6 AM, if for compression continues...
j) the short term regression curves switch from bearish-neutral-bullish SWING CONTINOUSLY
k) meaning SOMETHING WILL BREAK
l) and the DIRECTION in which it breaks IS NOT OBVIOUS

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m) HOWEVER
n) if long enough time passes AND NOTHING MAJOR HAPPENS
o) then the vol curve "NO LONGER HAS CHECK MARK SHAPE" shooting up
p) bc once you go sideways long enough, the massive move up will move past 100 hours ago
q) so "vol collapse" becomes "ancient history"
r) then THE ODDS OF A SPIKE FALL and you HAVE TO REBUILD THE ODDS
s) these odds vary based on each individual ticker
n) in summary SO WHAT?

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1) the spike to 64000 for Bitcoin happened 12:00 noon ET Wed
2) so for generic definition of 100 hour, this expires RIGHT AT Sunday open for forex markets (by accident, doesn't mean anything"
3) so odds of "a big random move" continues to climb to 6 PM ET
4) and begins to DROP QUICKLY if nothing happens

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5) that's a break down of "this call", and why it didn't work, but COULD HAVE
6) of course, the only way to "know all the time" is using 2-min bars have read micro linear regression waves CONTINUOUSLY
7) meaning ALL THE TIME
8) I'm sure high frequency computers use 1-sec bars (OR SMALLER
9) and execution would be based on:
A) first signal (front running)
B) vol ratio targeting (size of move the math equation expects)
C) vs straight line break (true AI trend scalping), like this:

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10 ) that finishes my Sunday rant on bitcoin
11) remember to trade defensively and good luck!

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12) on a side note, for the inexperienced
a) I have mislead people and I've also been mislead
b) I'm not the sharpest, but I only complained the FIRST TIME!
c) bc I remembered what they say about suckers...
d) "THERE'S ONE BORN EVERY MINUTE" (and that's an extreme underestimation!)
e) it is a dog eat dog world and if you think the experts are there to lead you...
d) they are NOT, they are just trying to make living!
e) and by the time they have built something meaningful they are ALREADY OLD
f) so they don't have time to help you EVEN IF THEY WANT TO
g) so take responsibility for your self
h) in the end everybody dies, that's obvious!!!
I) but if you don't want to die poor, under-classed or out-classed...
m) BE DEFENSIVE AF! WITH YOUR TIME AND MONEY, NO ONE ELSE WILL DO IT FOR YOU.

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11:05 AM, Can zombie bulls come back from the dead?
a) this was titled "The Hard Goodbye", meaning that bull or bear...
b) one of them is going to be done for
c) and the reason that trend engine have bulls as "zombies" are simple
d) Friday's close was read by pattern recognition as "unsustainable"
e) because the "gear" up for the move was capped at 67
f) and the fact that it was a "very strong" weekly close on first Friday of the month means...
g) NOTHING!
h) example you say?
i) Friday, December 1st, 2023 (before move to 2140-ish and immediate collapse)
j) if you were here that day, we nailed the move UP to 2147 and down to 2050 and then some
k) WE DO NOT HAVE THAT SPIKE SETUP THIS TIME
l) however there IS ONE MOVE BULLS HAVE THAT CAN CHANGE THE TIDE

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1) immediately after open... if price breaks this line:

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2) in chart above, THE DASHED LINE is the critical line
3) if price BREAKS IT IMMEDIATELY, by that I mean w/in 15 minutes of open...
4) that it's moving for 2096
5) but that is very unlikely
6) what is possible (but not yet likely) is price moves for 81 and then 76 then sideways...
7) then attempt to BREAK THE DASHED LINE between 10 PM ET and midnight)
8) in which case that pop can move to 2100+
9) THIS MATTERS A GREAT DEAL
10) why?
11) because THERE IS A BIG CHECK DOWN COMING Mon-Tues
12) this is HIGHLY HIGHLY LIKELY and it's not small
13) the Bollinger's show that it's more likely to be 50+ then 25-
14) so to realistically have 2050 not break this week and MAYBE even 2063
15) you need a bigger cushion to sell off from
16) odds of gray route in chart above STILL A MASSIVE MASSIVE DOG
17) UNTIL dashed line breaks AND price moves above 2087
18) at which point that scenario is still 45/55 (less than a coin flip)

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19) if bulls take this route, they HAVE THE UPPER HAND
20) if bulls take blue route in chart at top BUT HOLD 2063 THE WHOLE TIME
21) they will ALSO have the UPPER HAND
22) because of price trend structure (meaning the "shape" of the move")
23) both these outcomes are MASSIVE DOGS and do not reach "coinflip" odds ...
24) until they are "almost about to happen"
25) bc AT ALMOST, bc of the shape, they are still just 50/50
26) if bulls take blue route in chart at top and hold 49-52...
27) it maybe late Wed or early Thursday
28) before we know what is favored
29) all that is why BFS trend engine consider bulls zombies (dead but don't know it)
30) the twist is, "Nobody ever said zombies can't be rich!!"
31) but that is - with no doubt - an underdog situation

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32) what is weird about this situation is that the most unlikely route
33) not moving up, holing 63,then sideways to 87 to before NFP, then check to 76 8:30 AM ET that day
34) is a recipe for a move to 2150 (bc of trend structure/shape of move)

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35) just eliminated scenario for 33/34 so forget that
36) I'm trying to find a route for bulls and I can't right now
37 because bulls route have SO MANY CONDITIONS and each of them very unlikely
38) bulls' goalposts to remain alive are:
1) attempt new high before mid night
2) make 2096-2105 before 3 AM
3) so they can...
4) hold 63 on Monday
5) if no new high, last ditch attempt is hold 53 and pray for a miracle on Wednesday

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6) bc picture for WED/THUR/FRI PM all bearish or super bearish

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2:05 PM we are still on DRAFT 1 (this post).
- by process of trend elimination
- this is bulls's only prayer to come back, DRAFT 1.5
- in order not to jinx it it, we will use DRAFT 1 until we need draft 1.5:

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a) in chart above, my trend engine has bear trend the entire week...
b) with every ramp getting sold off
c) the ONLY POSSIBLE WINDOW to make a higher high is Tuesday AM
d) and that high WILL ALSO GET CRUSHED
e) but should be or would be enough to delay the ensuing sell off
f) and maybe hold 2000-2010 area ahead of 03/20 FOMC
g) this route is a massive massive dog
h) WHY? because IT HAS TO HIT PERFECT PERFECT PERFECT
i) that requires 2063 to hold on Monday AM
j) and 2053 to hold on Tuesday before NY OPEN
k) as stated in near the top of this page, bears OWN Sunday night and Monday morning
l) and entire possible for them to make 53 w/in 3 hours after Sunday open

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03/03 3:22 PM, to be clear on DRAFT 1.5:
a) why make that one?
b) because blue route in chart at top WILL NOT HAPPEN
c) I see us eliminating 1.5 route tomorrow too
b) bc I can't see 53 holding To Tuesday
d) not even sure it survives Monday

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4:03 PM ET So in my humbled opinion, bears are gunning for 44 by tomorrow morning
a) this kills "DRAFT 1.5"
b) makes it really hard to see how bulls can fit another rally in
c) bc ceiling regressions are "curling down"
d) this is making the route for bulls EVEN HARDER TO IMAGINE

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>> In the previous post's notes (which finished in 2150 DRAFT 1), I stated that a deep move down tonight would be over for bulls. I said this bc I thought we had more time, or until Friday. But now that it has to be Tuesday, a deep move tonight is probably better for bulls. Why?
1) this move is already in miracle territory bc we have 52 hours from now
2) to move to 2044, zig-zag twice, then 2137
3) so the MORE LIKELY MIRACLE would have us hit 2044 4 hours after the open
4) so we can have 2 whole days to work on the move to 2137
5) as opposed to starting the process at 2044 NOON TOMORROW, that is a ridiculous ask

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5:01 PM ET, What is my biggest fear (for bulls?)
a) I'm short right now, so if bears push under 2044 great for me.
b) but once you are under that, it's a problem and it's easy to see why
c) so what is max pain for bear check down?
d) 2024-2030 is max pain
e) so if bears are shooting to stop bulls, they want to hit at or under 2030
f) if bulls have to choose, they should want 2030 tonight bc 2030 tomorrow is actually uglier
g) but bears don't know that
h) so it is actually in both bulls' and bears' interest to hit 2030 tonight
I) 50 minutes to go until open and that's what I see

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5:15 PM 63029, looks like Bitcoin heading for 66500. But windows don't stay open forever. Bulls need to get on it. If they wait another 45-min, it's not obvious that their window remain open.

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a) if they stall and bears turn the curve at the top
b) you can get to 60400 in a matter of hours.

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a) in chart above black arrow is when I backed off 71000 call
b) bc those odds immediately drop 75% at that break
c) from the bottom, first orange arrow is bears' M-top rugpull target
d) second arrow is 64000 marker
e) if bulls get past 64000, next two orange arrows are 65500 and 67000 now (not 66500)
f) I don't like to "doubt" Bitcoin in a bull market (I called 58, 63, and then 71k)
g) but this is not "an easily breakable setup"
h) if bulls are going for it, they want to break 64000 BEFORE 6 PM, or in 23 minutes
I) slower than that, it's hard to see this breaking quickly
m) stall and turn, and it looks just like M top

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n) 6:55, BTC 62750, bulls need to defend 62300 bigly
o) they give up that too quickly, bears will push for 61400 quickly to force M top

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a) read notes earlier for what they want after they crossed it (just did)
b) but if/when they cross back down, BEARS WILL OWN THEM

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c) in notes above earlier, if they break immediately, then they want 2096
d) but IT'S NOT OBVIOUS THEY CAN MAKE 2087-88
e) this at 2085.85 as I type, odds favor a reversal, and making 2087 IS NOT OBVIOUS
f) BUT IF THEY DO MAKE 87 AND STAY FOR LIKE 30-MIN TO AN HOUR
g) THEN, it's likely they move for 96

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a) for chart above, again if dashed line breaks
b) first stop is 76, the 65 is obvious
c) a quick bounce and bears will gun for 57 in 2.5 hours
d) just use a red line pointing at 2 hours and 2 and 30 minutes out

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7:35 PM CORRECTION FOR CHART ABOVE:
a) to hold 63, price needs to break 88 and hold for one hour or two
b) even if price STAYED AT EXACTLY 84 the next 7.5 hours (and it's 83.06 now)
c) 2044 would still be favored by 10 AM...

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7:44 PM Can't doubt Bitcoin, even in tough setup. Above 64k, now retracing, 63700.
1) to break M top setup, needs to take out 65,500 and move for 67000.
2) or make another super long triangle

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a) for chart above and seconds later held 62450
b) now 32250, vol picking up now
c) c) must not get near 62300 for at least a 4 hours
d) getting near that is A REALLY BAD LOOK

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e) breaking that "x" is an invitation for 57500
f) like in 12 hours totally doable

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2080.xx, 8:29 PM, doesn't count if that line doesn't break
a) to pick up speed, gotta break the line
b) other wise, it can zig and zag & annoy until 10 am, but it's getting down there

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11:42 PM 2080.95 and not wanting to drop, which keeps the ceiling at 2150
a) something I didn't think possible until a few minutes ago
b) what this means for the floor for Monday
1) so right after open price broke dashed line and has held it
2) that eliminates 2130,
3) this sideways move has not "guaranteed us 2163 as the floor"
4) but short to medium-term trends pushing up strong now
5) this should eliminate everything under 2049
6) so Monday's floor is 2049-26063, so we will say around 2053-59

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c) what this means for this weeks's high (still banking on Tuesday)
d) this means it's not 2123, it's going to be 2150 that we were chasing that last 2 weeks
e) I say this with one caveat...
f) the turn is going be 3 AM when bears of the UK try to push this down
g) while I believe the floor is above 2052 now, this belief is not set in stone UNTIL PROVEN by 10 AM
h)there is still one more matter before we can commit to 2150
I) after Monday low, what will Monday night high be?
m) and what will Tuesday morning low be?
I) say this because even though I called 2150 for couple of weeks
m) IT IS NOT OBVIOUS THAT SOMETHING ABOVE 2125 WILL HIT
n) it is still hard to believe
o) but lets see 53-59 hold tomorrow morning first before we add to this

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12:30 AM ET, COVERED ALL SHORTS AT 2080.85 a bit ago
a) so the experts have caught up to me now announcing 2150 blah blah
b) but and a couple of them also see it Tuesday
c) but they disagree that the swing down is that low
d) so I am shutting this down momentarily so no one gets hurt
e) you are not going to miss anything
f) my position on is simple, you need room to check down for 2150 spike
g) but I also see the short to medium trends are now moving uniformly so
h) THIS POST HAS ENDED, we are on DRAFT 1.5
I) link is right below

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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