1. Key News Drivers
✅ Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut Strengthen (Core Logic)
Weak non-farm payroll data (the probability of a September rate cut soars to 90%) leads the market to anticipate two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September.
The US dollar weakens: expectations of interest rate cuts suppress the US dollar, and the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset increases.
✅ Rising risk aversion
Trump's tariff policy has sparked trade concerns, compounded by global economic uncertainty (such as a slowdown in Europe and geopolitical risks).
Fragile market sentiment: If subsequent economic data (such as CPI and retail sales) falls short of expectations, gold could rally further.
⚠️ Risk Warning: If Fed officials signal hawkishness (such as downplaying rate cuts) or if economic data rebounds, gold could experience a short-term correction.
2. Key Technical Signals
📈 Bullish Trend Confirmation Conditions:
A break above $3,375 (previous resistance level) opens up upside potential, with targets between $3,390 and $3,400, or even $3,450. Hold the support of 3335 (bull defense line). If the pullback does not break this level, the trend will remain strong.
📉 Pullback Risk Warning:
If 3335 is broken, a pullback to 3300 (a key psychological barrier) is possible, turning into a volatile market.
4-hour chart is overbought: Be wary of short-term profit-taking after consecutive days of gains.
🔍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3375 → 3390-3400 → 3450
Support: 3360-3350 → 3335 → 3300
3. Today's Trading Strategy
🎯 Main Strategy: Buy on pullbacks (low-cost buying), supplemented by shorting at key resistance levels.
👉 Long Opportunities:
Conservatives: Enter after a pullback to 3360-3350 and stabilization. Stop loss at 3340, target at 3380-3390.
Aggressive: If it breaks through 3375, go long with a light position, set a stop-loss at 3360, and target 3400.
👉 Short Opportunities:
Short if it first hits the 3390-3400 range and finds resistance, set a stop-loss at 3410, and target 3375-3360.
⚠️ Notes:
Avoid chasing the ups and downs, and wait for key levels to be confirmed.
If it falls below 3335, pause long positions and wait for support at 3300 before repositioning.
4. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Bull Market Start Signal: A weekly break above 3400 could confirm the start of the Fed's rate cut cycle.
Potential target: 3500-3600 (historical high area).
Risks: If US economic data improves or the Fed turns hawkish, gold could experience a deep correction to 3200-3150.
Summary
Short-term outlook: 3375 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it breaks through, go long; if it hits resistance, trade in a range.
Medium- to long-term: Focus on Fed policy and economic data. Trend-setting long positions should wait for clearer signals.
📌 Action suggestion: Give priority to callback of long orders during the day, strictly set stop-loss, and be wary of high-level shocks and washouts!
Trade active
Spot Gold Trading Strategy for August 5, 2025 (Tuesday):
Core Trend Analysis
Large-Term (Monthly/Weekly)
High-Level Fluctuation Bearish: 3430-3451 is strong resistance on the monthly chart. Maintain a medium-term bearish outlook until it breaks through, with a target of 3155-3300.
Key Support: 3340-3333 is the last line of defense for bulls; a break below opens up downside potential to 3300.
Short-Term (Daily/4-Hour)
Rebound momentum remains: 3385 is the intraday bull-bear watershed; a break above would test 3400-3415.
If the market falls under pressure: Focus on support at 3355-3353. A break below would accelerate towards 3345-3335.
Key Trading Plan
1. High-Short Primary Strategy (Priority Execution)
Entry Zone:
Conservative Level: 3375-3380 (near yesterday's high)
Aggressive Level: 3372-3373 (direct pressure during the European session)
Stop-Loss: Above 3387 (strict risk control)
Targets:
First Target: 3365-3360 (short-term profit-taking)
Second Target: 3355-3350 (key support)
After breaking below 3353 and rebounding to 3365, continue shorting and sell, targeting 3345-3335.
2. Low-to-Long Assisted Strategy (Apply with caution)
Entry Conditions:
Price retreats to the 3345-3335 area and stabilizes (this should be considered in conjunction with candlestick patterns).
Stop loss: below 3330 (if it falls below, the trend will turn bearish).
Target: 3360-3370 (the strength of the rebound will determine whether to target 3385).
Key Nodes and Operational Logic
Monthly chart key points: 3430-3451. This is the ultimate defensive level for medium-term short positions. The trend remains bearish until it breaks through.
Weekly chart key points: 3296-3439. Buy low and sell high within the range. A MACD death cross suggests a potential short position after a rebound.
Daily chart key point: 3385. If it breaks through, the short-term trend is 3400-3415; if it finds resistance, it will fall back to 3355-3345.
4-hour key point 3353. If the 1-hour entity falls below this point, it can be confirmed to be weakening, and short positions can be increased after the rebound.
Time-based Operations:
European Session:
If the market continues to experience resistance below 3385, go short directly at 3372-3375 during the European session.
If it breaks through 3385, wait for the US session to test 3400-3415 before establishing a higher level short position.
US Trading Session:
Breaking below 3353: Short on a rebound to 3365, target 3345-3335.
Holding 3340: Try a short-term bullish strategy, with a strict stop-loss at 3330, and enter and exit quickly.
Risk Warning and Position Management
Breaking above 3385: Be wary of a test of 3400-3415. Hold short positions or move the stop-loss up to 3407.
Breaking below 3330: The trend turns bearish, with strict stop-loss orders for long positions, targeting 3300.
Position Recommendation: Limit no more than 5% of your position per trade. Reduce positions or wait and see before data releases.
Note: Focus on the correlation between US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. Fed policy expectations remain the core driver of gold fluctuations.
Trade closed: target reached
August 6th Latest Gold Trend Analysis Strategy:
I. Gold Fundamentals Analysis
Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut Strengthen:
Weak US economic data (such as employment and manufacturing) has heightened market expectations of a September Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US dollar and benefiting gold.
Changes in Federal Reserve officials and policy uncertainty have exacerbated market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe haven.
Escalating Global Trade Tensions:
The Trump administration's announcement of 25% tariffs on India and other countries has sparked concerns about trade friction and heightened risk aversion in the market.
Geopolitical risks (US-Russia confrontation, Middle East tensions) have further supported gold.
Weak US Dollar:
The US dollar index's rebound has been weak. If US economic data continues to be sluggish, it could fall further, which would be bullish for gold.
II. Gold Technical Analysis
Short-Term Trend (Intraday):
Support: 3360-3350 (critical watershed), 3345 (yesterday's low).
Resistance: 3385 (yesterday's high), 3390-3400 (strong resistance zone).
Technical Indicators:
RSI is approaching overbought territory, so be wary of a short-term pullback.
The 30-minute chart shows weakening upward momentum, suggesting a possible double top formation.
Key Pattern Observations:
Double Top Risk: If gold prices encounter resistance in the 3385-3390 area and fall below 3370, it could confirm a short-term top and trigger a correction.
Breakout signal: If it stands firmly above 3400, it may open up upside space to 3420-3450.
III. Today's Gold Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trading (Buy Low and Sell High):
Short Strategy:
Short on rebounds to the 3395-3400 range, stop loss at 3405, target at 3360-3350.
Long Strategy:
Go long on pullbacks to the 3350-3360 area, stop loss at 3337, target at 3380-3390.
Breakout Trading (Trend Following):
If it breaks through 3400: Go long with a light position, targeting 3420-3430.
If it falls below 3345: It may pull back to 3330-3300, and you can short-term sell.
IV. Risk Warning
Market Sentiment Changes: Trade frictions and geopolitical events could trigger significant volatility.
V. Summary
Short-term: Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards, but strong resistance between 3385 and 3400 is expected, so be wary of a pullback.
Trading Recommendation: Wait and see during the Asian session, then trade when the market opens in Europe and the US. Maintain a strict stop-loss (≤1% position risk).
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.