Long

3100 BY HALLOWEEN #7B, BEARS GETTING ON ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST

Updated

This continues directly from 7A. This coming week, I wipe out entire populations of bears. Big bears, small bears, wannabe bears. I'm going to kill em all.

1) it looks like we get to 2450 on Friday
2) odds are 60/40+ at time of publishing which is after 4 AM ET
3) on Thursday 7/11
4) this time I really like yellow route
5) BUT IT DOESN'T HAVE TO DO YELLOW ROUTE
6) or any of the hi-lights
7) price just gotta get to 2517 by next Thursday
8) what that number is, 2505, 2517, or 2525 ...
9) have implications on what the August top is
10) last time we talked about this, I had reason to raise it
11) to 2800s (not totally sure, but makes more sense than 2750)
12) but said that would mean 3075 would move to December
13) I don't think I know that at all
14) so instead I am going to raise Halloween to 3100
15) it just makes more sense vs pushing 3075 to December
16) all in all, let's just get to 2515 first
17) I expect this by on or before next Thursday 7/18
18) will add notes as we go

Note

4:25 PM ET, continuing notes:
19) so again ovals/ellipses are retrace areas that are strong buys
20) and the rectangles are LATE LIMITS FOR SPECIFIC PRICE LEVELS
21) yes I really like yellow route
22) but worse case scenario if all of those miss
23) the "late limit" for this entire move to 2520-ish would be:

Note

24) the 3 lines above price right now are gate keepers
25) this guy told me once price doesn't follow trend lines
26) I forgot to ask him what he meant by that
27) but I am going to take Paul Tudor Jones' word for this one
28) price need to break them soon
29) PREFERABLY IN UNDER 4 HOURS
30) bc it's 4:37 AM ET and CPI release is 233 minutes away
31) I would like to see price break 2393 before that making 2397 would be excellent signal
32) but DROPPING 10 RIGHT BEFORE CPI, to 2387 IS FINE

Note

33) conversely, not breaking any of those line
34) is a big problem, AND WE HAVE TO HAVE ANSWERS WHY ....
35) this is not a small thing to overlook
36) because NOT BREAKING ANY HERE, IS NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN AT ALL
37) THAT WOULD REQUIRE MAJOR HEDGES GOING INTO CPI

Note

9) continuing with chart above, I started out this project 8 years ago not taking trend lines seriously
10) why?
11) bc of that same logic
12) I SWEAR 100% ok?, had I started out taking trend lines seriously
13) it would've saved 4 years if not 6 years
14) it was when I saw interview of Paul Tudor Jones that I applied trend lines
15) and my work began to crush the competition
16) that's all I am saying

Note

6:52 PM, not 1 of those lines have broken yet
1) it's 80.84 as I type
2) be VERY CAREFUL HERE
3) as I stated earlier, if this is the case
4) we have to consider hedges as soon as possible
5) that means 79.5 and I start hedging more and more
6) why?
7) because this is now 8 points off average trend 8 hours ago
8) why is that?
9) bc not enough people are buying
10) why arent' they buying?
11) bc THEY ALL WATCHING THE SAME 3 TREND LINES
12) nobody wants to be the sucker
13) if I wasn't long since 2293, and just trading this 1 event?
14) yeah, I would cut it off at 79.5 and wait for a move up first
15) why?
16) NO HEADACHE OF BEING TOO EARLY

Note

17) 7:19 PM ET 2381, BE CAREFUL, I AM DEAD SERIOUS
18) THE EVENT SWING FLOOR IS LIKE 2353....UGLY AF
19) was not even possible until the last 15 minutes

Note

20) it's 82.47 at 7:23 and 67 min from CPI
21) I need to see first 2 lines break to be comfortable with this
22) or basically 2387
23) why?, because trend maps DO NOT HAVE A GOOD REASON WHY it's still 82.5
24) and it's starting to give that massive 2-way vol look
25) all it needs to do is move up 4.5 points to kill this look
26) and it has refused to do it for 6 hours
27) base case is still 2520 by next Thursday
28) but it does not have to be pretty, the way it gets there
29) it can ugly AF it makes you want to throw up just looking at the move
30) that's all I'm saying, be careful

Note

31) 7:35 AM ET 82.34, in chart at top, blue route now favored vs yellow route

Note

8:33, THERE IS 2400

Note

8:35, so what's today's high?
1) there are 2 answers
2) blue vs yellow routes in chart at top
3) yellow tops at 2425
4) blue tops at 2418
5) since it spiked hard and it's 2402 now already
6) gotta think it's yellow
7) but the slow down will come at some point
8) and we will find out

Note

8:45 AM ET, 2406,XX AFTER 2408.XX
1) so I have to help 3 people with their trading
2) basically sell and reposition for longer option dates
3) so until I am done with all of that
4) not adding anything to this

Note

11:41 AM 2429.XX, what's in the title?
1) I would wipe out entire populations of bears today
2) I would kill em all
3) big bad bears
4) run your mouth every damn day
5) why silent today?
6) obvious why
7) and Im gonna make sure
8) you keep you mouth shut from here to 2750

Note

11:52 AM ET, 2418.XX play chart at top:
1) first order of business now what we sold 2418/2424
2) GET BACK IN NEXT DROP
3) sure, we would like to buy 2403

Note

4) but will we get what we want?
5) don't know
6) in chart above, put the reversal RENTRY centered at 2407.5
7) that means just off the top of my head...
8) you have to take it if it gives it to you
9) if there's a down trend line and it's holding
10) for sure, wait until it breaks
11) other wise it looks like it's going to do yellow route
12) FOR NOW... needs confirmation from my end

Note

12:01 PM: AND WHILE WE ARE ON THE SUBJECT
13) I am not trying to nail every wiggle ok?
14) I am trying to take advantage of the move to 2750-2800, from here to mid August
15) so there's are times when I WILL SIMPLY IGNORE THE 2-WAY VOL
16) if I feel that it's not significant vs longer term picture
17) so be aware
18) like right now, odds favor 2407 at least once or twice before up again
19) BUT I AM NOT EXITING MY MAIN LONG POSITION
20) why?
21) too much stress to F with it, that's all

Note

22) AND ALSO, we have not "made up" for that drop to 2350
23) it's not like we have forever to get to 2750-2800
24) bc it's 7/11 already, WE HAVE TO DO 2600 BEFORE 7/31
25) and it's not like it's a straight line up there
26) so the danger now - in my humble opinion - is up NOT DOWN

Note

27) TYPO EARLIER, 2424, we never made 2429 in spot
28) was reading GC ticker that was late

Note

12:23, 2414.xx.. got a momentum drop here
a) if you see 2403-2407 DO NOT THINK TWICE
b) why? bc we have a REALLY GOOD SHOT AT 2449 TOMORROW

Note

c) 12:42 from here to tomorrow SUPER SUPER IMPORTANT
d) why?
e) we can permanently shift this curve up the entire way
f) the issue is, when should 2750 hit?
g) the earlier we hit it, the higher the odds 2800s for mid-August high

Note

1:25 PM ET, 2415.XX and it looks like this now:

Note

1) in chart AT TOP, ignore blue, combine yellow and gray
2) then update to current trend engine
3) and yo get sidweways to PPI, then a move for 2450 next
4) we are looking for 3 sideways zig zag and then fourth one smaller
5) the reversal strong buy is 2404-2412
6) should hit at least twice from here to PPI
7) so that's it

Note

6) continuing in chart above THERE IS ONE MORE SITUATION
7 ) that, while right now unlikely
8) becomes likely with 10 points up and stalling at 2427 for 6 hours...
9) then the probability of 2450 COMING AFTER LONDON
10) BUT BEFORE NEW YORK becomes real
11) in this case, PPI release would be SELL THE NEWS to 2417-2424
12) like this:

Note

13)

Note

14) in chart above, this is not knowable right now
15) and bc the intermediate trends are TURNING SO SHARP UPWARD
16) remember when I said "when are we going to make up for checking 2350" really late?
17) like past "sideways limit expiration" and we dropped and extra 20 ...
18) vol works both ways
19) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS AT ALL RIGHT NOW...
20) THAT 2450 must come AFTER PPI
21) so be aware

Note

22) so at 3:33 PM ET and just dropped 3 pts from 2418.xx to 2415.xx
23) TOKYO will decide what happens tomorrow
24) whether we get 2450 before or after PPI release
25) that's a wrap for today

Note

3:39 PM, 2417.XX basically play chart at top
1) so the scenario we have now
2) favors a move FASTER THAN ALL THOSE HILIGHTS
3) be aware

Note

4:15 PM back to orange route... but it's not obvious.
1) will know by 8 pm
2) not at home so bear with me

Note

7:11, 4:53 PM ET, so the intermediate trends are pushing up hard
1) and it's "demanding 2500 on Tuesday-Wednesday 7/16-17
2) it's actually Tuesday, but I find that strange so I added Wednesday

Note

3) yeah, after I said that
4) and it dropped from 2318.5 to 2312.5 now 2415.27 at 4:59PM
5) gun to my head 1 call?
6) I call 2450 overnight
7) which means PPI is "sell the news" to 2417-2425
8) this is base case right now
9) it's not my call, it's trend engine's call
10) so we will see

Note

11) and it would be like this black route, not blue:

Note

12) matching all time highs between 3-4 AM

Note

13) give that some thought and we go on from there tonight

Note

6:49 PM we can eliminate all of those moves

Note

14) the one that has to happen is the PPI push o 2450
15) nothing else "has to happen"
16) can cant' explain why it would or wouldn't
17) and I don't pretend that there's a "set of rules" for this to happen
18) I'll add more when there's more to add

Note

7/11 PM, 7:16 PM ET 2412.79, you know what I hate?
19) dumb-ass math rules that (while logical) JUST DO NOT WORK!
20) you know what the odds of this move - falling like this since 2418?
21) if you break it down trend by trend, line by line
22) the odds is like 1 in 1024, ,or less than 1/10 of 1%
23) OR ... maybe it's just "a trend line"

Note

24)

Note

25) so would you put into words what happens here
26) how I would say it is:
a) short-term matters more than long term
b) until it doesn't
c) and if you think it's "logical" the manner in which this happens
d) you're a little bit out of your mind

Note

e) but I digress
f) let's review what I consider trend facts

Note

1) we are moving to 2450
2) and then 2508-2525
3) and it should arrive TUES-WED-THURS NEXT WEEK
4) that's where we are

Note

5) here's a better one

Note

6) but because price is not "playing by the rules" ...
7) as if there were rules begin with
8) what matters is not the pattern going in
9 just that IT MAKES SENSE AT 8 AM, 30-MIN A HEAD OF PPI RELEASE

Note

10) 8:14 PM, 2411.64 is IN STRONG BUY ELLIPSE
11) BUT HEDGING STARTS AT 2409
12) why?
13) because of that damn trend line

Note

7/11, 8:47 PM ET, For my buddy Ordinary-Human:
a) this "model" DOES NOT INSIST ON A ROUTE UP
b) so that means I can't be caught off guard
c) it's favored to move to 2450 tomorrow
d) but we remove the part where "it has to"
e) this is the key of this model
f) it allows me to go where price goes, without having immediate answers
g) on what the entire route should look like

Note

h) so you've seen me hit many forecasts before with deadly accuracy
i) but where I go wrong, is when I start believing "there's no other way"
j) it is technically, "a failure of imagination"
k) so we take that part out
l) I give what the "trend facts are"
m) and what is likely
n) BUT I DON'T INSIST ON THIS ROUTE
o) the only 3 times we got in trouble int last several months
p) is when I start insisting on 1 route

Note

q) only to realize later why I didn't have to
r) so I decided to skip that mess
s) and realize it right now
t) we know its going up and up, but it don't have t to be on our schedule

Note

1) trend engine says odds are low AF
2) but experience says trend engine overrates the trend map here
3) and a drop to 2403 is obviously what bears want
4) for what reason?
5) none other than THAT DAMN TREND LINE
6) but upwards compression at 2403-04
7) makes this support STRONG AF

Note

8) but if price moves for 2403 here
9) I HAMMER THE LEVERAGE

Note

10) at 9:32 that's what it looks like now
11) this morning before CPI, I posted this one:

Note

12) so in chart above is the original draft for current dark blue route
13) to sum it up, its 2409.xx
a) if you see 2407 that's a buy
b) if 2405 strong buy
c) 2403 strong AF buy
d) BUT HOLD UNDER 2403 and start hedging
e) this is if you don't have a position going
f) I am already hedging my long position (but I"ve been long since 2293

Note

9:41, 2407.xx so when you this move like this:

Note

1) where price fights a a trend line
2) and gets rejected ) like this
3) it will break the base lower
4) only question is HOW DEEP
5) this is like among the easiest signals there is
6) AND APPLIES ON ALL TIME SALES
7) IN ALL POSITIONS
8) no matter how strong the counter trend is

Note

4:09 AM, I hammered the leverage at 2403
1) I don't know what this is going to look like
2) because the sell off so ugly
3) an once again, TREND LINES MATTTER, OK?

Note

4) had a decent turn signal 4 hours ago
5) so I went to sleep w/ 2403 alarms
6) NO CHANGE OF PLANS
7) I am just trying to figure what the move past 2424 should look like
8) bc in this setup, the first move to 2424, usually gets sold

Note

9) ) so I'd like to see that before 8:30
10) if only bc it makes forecasting the event's pattern easier

Note

11) so at 4:29 AND 2406.XX

Note

12) we know what the the first move to 2423 should drop 10 before it breaks all the way up
13) so, IN THEORY, that means today's ceiling IS 2435
14) but still hammering out details

Note

15) NO, CEILING IS 2450, I just proved it, question is can we STILL HIT THAT TODAY
16) yes we can
17) but are we favored to break 2435

Note

18) so second draft:

Note

19) in chart above
20) here's what I see right now, and we are still 205 minutes FROM PPI release
a) it's not obvious that we can hit 2423 again before PPI
b) IF WE DO, the technical signal is AT FIRST BEARISH
c) which means 10 pt retrace before higher
d) IF WE DON'T, then we staircase up SLOWER
e) so if we move fast, we hit 2450, if we move slow, we stall at 2435-2440
f) in both scenarios we move for 2449-2455 followed by Tokyo/London sell off Sunday night
g) and MONDAY MORNING NEW YORK BREAKS OUT FOR NEW ALL TIME HIGHS
-edit-
h) no MONDAY AFTERNOON NY CLOSE NEW ALL TIME HIGH

Note

5:04 AM ET, the feel is a very basic rally
a) but I am going to tell you I don't know why we are so slow
b) what do I mean by slow?
c) bc at 2515-2520 IS A 70 PT RETRACE
d) this is almost a sure thing
e) so...
f) so that means we CLOSE FRI 7/19 2450+, right?
g) and that leaves only 7 trading days until JULY 31ST FOMC
h) SO JULY CEILING IS 2600
i) I guess it feels slow bc I always expected it to be faster
j) call that "bias" the primary reason for most of the wrong calls

Note

5:25 AM, SO MY TREND FACTS ARE:
1) 2450 soon, today, Sunday, or Monday
2) 2500 next Wed
3) 2600 before 7/31 FOMC'
4) as they say, the devil is in the details
5) I will have a new post ready before PPI which is in 183 minutes

Note

6) this is all dependent on the action next 3 hours
7) bc the "setup" gives us the speed
8) this is the difference between 2450 end of Friday or
9) 2450 Sunday night

Note

6:08 AM 2403, hedges back on
a) why/
b) bears pushing for 2397 I think

Note

6:27 AM ET, 2400.XX PLAY CHART AT TOP

Note

c) you are under the oval now
d) in my opinion, excellent value for 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or 1 year
e) it's got just a little more room to slide
f) still 2 hours until PPI

Note

7:31, here is next one:

3100 BY HALLOWEEN 7C - ARE BEARS ABOUT TO BE EXTINCT?

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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