Hey traders! Let’s dive into gold's outlook from both a speculative and long-term perspective. Based on the latest COT report, seasonality trends, and technical analysis, here’s what we’re seeing:
🔍 COT Data Insights (As of August 27, 2024) 🔍
Commercials: Increased short positions (+4,683) while reducing longs (-1,130), signaling a potential bearish outlook 📉.
Large Speculators: Big drop in both long (-12,221) and short (-15,413) positions, showing reduced commitment from both sides ⚖️.
Total Market: General reduction in positions (-12,879 long, -10,258 short), indicating a cooling off before a bigger move 😶.
👉 Conclusion: Sentiment is leaning bearish in the short term, especially with speculators losing confidence.
🕒 Seasonality Matters: September Declines, December Rebounds 🕒
📅 September has historically been a tough month for gold, with price changes showing declines across multiple timeframes:
2 Years: -73.31 📉
5 Years: -47.31 📉
10 Years: -29.33 📉
📅 December usually brings a turnaround, showing gains historically. This suggests we might see better buying opportunities around that time 🤑.
📊 Daily Chart Technical Analysis 📊
🔹 Current Price: Gold is trading near $2,483, close to the weak high at $2,560, which is acting as resistance 🚧.
🔸 Market Structure: We’re still in a bullish structure (HH, HL), but the premium zone suggests a pullback could be on the horizon 💡.
🔸 Supply and Demand: If price action respects the current resistance, we could see a pullback towards equilibrium ($2,430) and even further into the discount zone ($2,360) 📉.
⚡ Trading Setup: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish ⚡
🟢 Short Setup:
Entry: Around $2,500 (weak high zone).
Stop Loss: Above $2,565 (above the weak high).
Take Profit:
TP1: $2,430 (equilibrium).
TP2: $2,360 (demand zone).
🟢 Long Setup (Mid-October Opportunity):
Entry: If gold reaches the $2,200-$2,250 range, look for long positions 💥.
Stop Loss: Below $2,180.
Take Profit:
TP1: $2,440.
TP2: $2,480 (premium zone retest).
🚨 Key Levels to Watch 🚨
Resistance: $2,560 (weak high).
Support: $2,430 (equilibrium), $2,200-$2,250 (discount zone).
🤔 Final Thoughts: We expect a bearish move in the short term, with September being historically weak. However, for those patient enough, there may be a great buying opportunity in October for a December rally! 📈💪
Trade safe, and happy trading! 🚀✨
🔍 COT Data Insights (As of August 27, 2024) 🔍
Commercials: Increased short positions (+4,683) while reducing longs (-1,130), signaling a potential bearish outlook 📉.
Large Speculators: Big drop in both long (-12,221) and short (-15,413) positions, showing reduced commitment from both sides ⚖️.
Total Market: General reduction in positions (-12,879 long, -10,258 short), indicating a cooling off before a bigger move 😶.
👉 Conclusion: Sentiment is leaning bearish in the short term, especially with speculators losing confidence.
🕒 Seasonality Matters: September Declines, December Rebounds 🕒
📅 September has historically been a tough month for gold, with price changes showing declines across multiple timeframes:
2 Years: -73.31 📉
5 Years: -47.31 📉
10 Years: -29.33 📉
📅 December usually brings a turnaround, showing gains historically. This suggests we might see better buying opportunities around that time 🤑.
📊 Daily Chart Technical Analysis 📊
🔹 Current Price: Gold is trading near $2,483, close to the weak high at $2,560, which is acting as resistance 🚧.
🔸 Market Structure: We’re still in a bullish structure (HH, HL), but the premium zone suggests a pullback could be on the horizon 💡.
🔸 Supply and Demand: If price action respects the current resistance, we could see a pullback towards equilibrium ($2,430) and even further into the discount zone ($2,360) 📉.
⚡ Trading Setup: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish ⚡
🟢 Short Setup:
Entry: Around $2,500 (weak high zone).
Stop Loss: Above $2,565 (above the weak high).
Take Profit:
TP1: $2,430 (equilibrium).
TP2: $2,360 (demand zone).
🟢 Long Setup (Mid-October Opportunity):
Entry: If gold reaches the $2,200-$2,250 range, look for long positions 💥.
Stop Loss: Below $2,180.
Take Profit:
TP1: $2,440.
TP2: $2,480 (premium zone retest).
🚨 Key Levels to Watch 🚨
Resistance: $2,560 (weak high).
Support: $2,430 (equilibrium), $2,200-$2,250 (discount zone).
🤔 Final Thoughts: We expect a bearish move in the short term, with September being historically weak. However, for those patient enough, there may be a great buying opportunity in October for a December rally! 📈💪
Trade safe, and happy trading! 🚀✨
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.