7.14 Gold Analysis
I. Market Review and Current Situation:
Last week, the trend of gold showed a bottoming-out and rebounding pattern. Affected by the fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the week, the price of gold once broke through the important psychological barrier of $3,300. However, as the market gradually digested the threat of radical tariff policies proposed by former President Trump (including the imposition of high tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, etc.), the demand for safe-haven re-heated, driving the steady rebound of gold prices. At the end of last Friday, the price of gold reached a high of around $3,368, and finally closed above $3,350 on a weekly basis.
II. Key technical observations:
1. Daily level trend and risk:
The current daily structure still maintains a bullish trend, and there is dense technical support below.
The core support area is in the range of $3,320-3,340, which brings together key moving average systems (such as MA20, MA30, etc.) and the previous trading concentration area, forming an important bullish defense line.
Key warning: Although the trend is bullish, the risk of chasing high is significant. If you chase more above $3350 or even $3360, once the gold price technically retreats to the 3340-3320 area for consolidation, the position will face greater floating loss pressure and psychological test of holding positions.
III. 4-hour level short-term signal:
The gold price failed to effectively stand above $3360 on the 4-hour chart, which is a signal worthy of vigilance, suggesting that the short-term upward momentum may be insufficient.
This signal increases the possibility of gold prices falling back to the lower support again.
The nearest support level clearly points to around $3340. This position is a key node for short-term long and short competition. If it is effectively broken, it may further test the 3320-3330 area.
IV. Core drivers and event outlook:
Tuesday's US CPI data (released on July 15): This is the most critical risk event that dominates the trend of gold prices this week. The market will assess the current state of US inflation based on this, and revise its expectations for the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve (especially the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) based on this. Any data that exceeds expectations (whether up or down) may trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
Trump's policy trends: His "important statement" on trade (high tariff threats) and the announcement of today's "important statement" on the Russian issue are still important sources of market uncertainty and risk aversion. The escalation of relevant remarks or measures will be good for gold, and vice versa, it may weaken safe-haven demand.
US dollar trend: The US dollar index fluctuated upward last week (recorded its first increase in three weeks). Although it did not effectively break through the 98 mark, its relative strength has put a certain pressure on gold prices, and its trends need to be continuously monitored.
5. Intraday operation strategy:
1. The core idea before the release of CPI: cautious fluctuations and range operations.
It is expected that before the release of the crucial US June CPI data (Tuesday), the probability of gold prices remaining in the range of 3360-3340 US dollars is very high. Market participants tend to wait and see, waiting for data to guide the direction.
2. Specific strategy:
The upper edge of the range (near and above 3360 US dollars): It is not advisable to aggressively chase the rise. It can be considered as a short-term light position test, and the stop loss is strictly set above 3365/3370 US dollars. The target is 3345-3340 US dollars.
The lower edge of the range (near 3340 US dollars): Pay attention to the defensive strength of bulls. If effective support is obtained in this area (such as a stabilization signal), you can consider light position layout of long orders, and set the stop loss below 3335/3330 US dollars. The target is 3350-3360 US dollars.
Breakthrough strategy (low probability but need a plan):
Break above 3365/3370 US dollars: The effectiveness and sustainability need to be confirmed. The aggressive can follow up with a light position, and the target is 3380 US dollars, but it is necessary to be wary of the risk of false breakthroughs before CPI, and the stop loss must be strictly enforced.
Break below 3335/3330 US dollars: It may open the downward space to 3320 or even lower. You can consider shorting with the trend, and the target is 3310-3300 area, and the stop loss must also be strictly enforced.
*Today, the gold market is in a "quiet period" before the release of key data. Although the overall technical trend remains bullish, and there is strong support in the 3320-3340 area below, it is difficult for gold prices to effectively break through last week's high (3368) and open up upward space in the absence of a new strong catalyst (CPI data). At the same time, the failure of the 4-hour chart to stand above 3360 also indicates a short-term correction risk. Therefore, the most likely path during the day is to fluctuate in the range of 3360-3340 US dollars. Traders should remain patient, adopt a strategy of light positions, high selling and low buying within the range, and strict stop loss, focus on avoiding the risk of chasing up and selling down before the release of CPI data, and wait for tomorrow's data to guide a clear direction.
Be cautious in trading and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
I. Market Review and Current Situation:
Last week, the trend of gold showed a bottoming-out and rebounding pattern. Affected by the fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the week, the price of gold once broke through the important psychological barrier of $3,300. However, as the market gradually digested the threat of radical tariff policies proposed by former President Trump (including the imposition of high tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, etc.), the demand for safe-haven re-heated, driving the steady rebound of gold prices. At the end of last Friday, the price of gold reached a high of around $3,368, and finally closed above $3,350 on a weekly basis.
II. Key technical observations:
1. Daily level trend and risk:
The current daily structure still maintains a bullish trend, and there is dense technical support below.
The core support area is in the range of $3,320-3,340, which brings together key moving average systems (such as MA20, MA30, etc.) and the previous trading concentration area, forming an important bullish defense line.
Key warning: Although the trend is bullish, the risk of chasing high is significant. If you chase more above $3350 or even $3360, once the gold price technically retreats to the 3340-3320 area for consolidation, the position will face greater floating loss pressure and psychological test of holding positions.
III. 4-hour level short-term signal:
The gold price failed to effectively stand above $3360 on the 4-hour chart, which is a signal worthy of vigilance, suggesting that the short-term upward momentum may be insufficient.
This signal increases the possibility of gold prices falling back to the lower support again.
The nearest support level clearly points to around $3340. This position is a key node for short-term long and short competition. If it is effectively broken, it may further test the 3320-3330 area.
IV. Core drivers and event outlook:
Tuesday's US CPI data (released on July 15): This is the most critical risk event that dominates the trend of gold prices this week. The market will assess the current state of US inflation based on this, and revise its expectations for the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve (especially the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) based on this. Any data that exceeds expectations (whether up or down) may trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
Trump's policy trends: His "important statement" on trade (high tariff threats) and the announcement of today's "important statement" on the Russian issue are still important sources of market uncertainty and risk aversion. The escalation of relevant remarks or measures will be good for gold, and vice versa, it may weaken safe-haven demand.
US dollar trend: The US dollar index fluctuated upward last week (recorded its first increase in three weeks). Although it did not effectively break through the 98 mark, its relative strength has put a certain pressure on gold prices, and its trends need to be continuously monitored.
5. Intraday operation strategy:
1. The core idea before the release of CPI: cautious fluctuations and range operations.
It is expected that before the release of the crucial US June CPI data (Tuesday), the probability of gold prices remaining in the range of 3360-3340 US dollars is very high. Market participants tend to wait and see, waiting for data to guide the direction.
2. Specific strategy:
The upper edge of the range (near and above 3360 US dollars): It is not advisable to aggressively chase the rise. It can be considered as a short-term light position test, and the stop loss is strictly set above 3365/3370 US dollars. The target is 3345-3340 US dollars.
The lower edge of the range (near 3340 US dollars): Pay attention to the defensive strength of bulls. If effective support is obtained in this area (such as a stabilization signal), you can consider light position layout of long orders, and set the stop loss below 3335/3330 US dollars. The target is 3350-3360 US dollars.
Breakthrough strategy (low probability but need a plan):
Break above 3365/3370 US dollars: The effectiveness and sustainability need to be confirmed. The aggressive can follow up with a light position, and the target is 3380 US dollars, but it is necessary to be wary of the risk of false breakthroughs before CPI, and the stop loss must be strictly enforced.
Break below 3335/3330 US dollars: It may open the downward space to 3320 or even lower. You can consider shorting with the trend, and the target is 3310-3300 area, and the stop loss must also be strictly enforced.
*Today, the gold market is in a "quiet period" before the release of key data. Although the overall technical trend remains bullish, and there is strong support in the 3320-3340 area below, it is difficult for gold prices to effectively break through last week's high (3368) and open up upward space in the absence of a new strong catalyst (CPI data). At the same time, the failure of the 4-hour chart to stand above 3360 also indicates a short-term correction risk. Therefore, the most likely path during the day is to fluctuate in the range of 3360-3340 US dollars. Traders should remain patient, adopt a strategy of light positions, high selling and low buying within the range, and strict stop loss, focus on avoiding the risk of chasing up and selling down before the release of CPI data, and wait for tomorrow's data to guide a clear direction.
Be cautious in trading and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.