XAUUSD - Test of resistance at $1930 after NF . data

Updated

Gold market rises as US labor market weakens, with fewer jobs created than expected last month. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 209 in June, slightly lower than the market consensus of around 224,000. The US unemployment rate decreased as expected to 3.6%, down from May's 3.7%.

Gold market sees modest increase in response to job numbers and prices push back to initial resistance. August gold futures traded at $1,930, up 0.70% for the day.

In addition to disappointing headline figures, the report also highlights that wage inflation is not going away. The report states that average hourly wages increased by 12 cents or 0.4% last month to $33.58.

Note

🐾 SELL GOLD zone 1933 - 1930

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1937

💲 Take Profit 1: 1925
💲 Take Profit 2: 1920
💲 Take Profit 3: 1915

Note

Potential concern for gold speculators is the increase in the real yield of the United States. The real yield is the nominal yield minus the inflation rate, as measured by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) for the same term.

The 10-year inflation-adjusted return for Treasury bonds is over 1.82% on Friday. The last time it traded at this level was in 2009 when gold was below $1,000. The increasing real yield of Treasury bonds is providing a higher return compared to holding a non-interest-bearing asset like gold.

Note

🐾 BUY GOLD zone 1916 - 1913

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1910

💲 Take Profit 1: 1920
💲 Take Profit 2: 1925
💲 Take Profit 3: 1930

Trade closed: target reached

⭐️Plan to BUY Successfully Take Profit 1 + 70pips 💲💲💲

Note

The US CPI will be closely monitored on Wednesday to see if the Fed's tightening measures have had the desired impact on inflation. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are expecting a 3.1% annual CPI by the end of June, compared to the previous 4.0%.

Higher real interest rates are being driven by nominal interest rate increases, as inflation expectations remain steady. This can be seen in the chart below.

For gold traders, keeping an eye on US interest rates may provide clues about potential market trends.

Note

The technical outlook for gold bears in August is favorable in the short term. The price has been on a nine-week downtrend on the daily chart. The next target for the bullish side is to close above the strong resistance level of $1,950. The next short-term target for bears is to push the futures contract price below the solid technical support level of $1,846, the lowest in February. The first resistance level is seen at today's highest level of $1,933, followed by last week's high of $1,942. The first support level is seen at today's lowest level of $1,918, followed by last week's low of $1,908.

Note

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1934 - 1937 (scalping)

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1940

💲 Take Profit 1: 1930
💲 Take Profit 2: 1927
💲 Take Profit 3: 1924

Trade closed: target reached

⭐️Plan to SELL Successfully Take Profit 1 + 80pips 💲💲💲

Note

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1950 - 1947

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1955

💲 Take Profit 1: 1935
💲 Take Profit 2: 1930
💲 Take Profit 3: 1925

Note

Some economists and market analysts have said this is a surprising deflationary signal as the supply of used cars remains; however, the supply of new vehicles for sale is improving as demand weakens.

All eyes are now on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index. According to consensus estimates, economists are looking for annual consumer prices to rise 3.1%, down from 4% reported in May.

The weak inflation data is not having an immediate impact on interest rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets continue to brace for a 25-basis point hike from the Federal Reserve later this month.

Note

From a technical standpoint, gold seems ready for a breakthrough with a bullish flag pattern and many indications of price action. We have seen higher highs and higher lows since dropping below the psychological level of $1,900 on June 29th.

My only concern about a price breakthrough at this stage is the important consolidation area around $1,950 while the 50-day MA is slightly higher at $1,959. A higher breakout may bring resistance around $1,980.

Note

🐾 SELL XAUUSD zone 1967 - 1965

⚠️ Stop Loss : 1972

💲 Take Profit 1: 1955
💲 Take Profit 2: 1950
💲 Take Profit 3: 1945

Andrew-Trading

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