XAUUSD: Gold about to rally
Updated
We have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn.
The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop.
The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop.
I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop.
The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop.
I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Quarterly chart implies we could be about to resume a long term decline, so, we should pay attention to the quarterly downtrend mode zone, between 1240 and 1255.
Note
The quarterly gives me this level for a sell: This aligns with the Brexit low level.
It's important to pay attention to price action if and when we arrive there. If shorting, we could use stops at 1255 or 1 daily ATR higher perhaps. We'll have to wait and see.
Note
Note
zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-25/gold-options-traders-most-bearish-july-2015On monday I'm adding to longs on a break of Friday's high, and moving stops to Friday's low.
Note
Doubled my longs at the open and trailed all stops to Friday's low.
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