The gold market is currently in the mid-term adjustment stage of the bullish trend, and the technical side shows three typical characteristics: first, the price has built a standard shock box in the range of US$2955-3055; second, the daily Bollinger Bands continue to narrow to a bandwidth of US$23, a new low in nearly a month, indicating a significant contraction in volatility; most importantly, the 4-hour level has begun to show the embryonic form of a head and shoulders bottom pattern, with the left shoulder at US$2970, the head at US$2955, and the neckline at US$3055. This technical structure suggests that the market is brewing a breakthrough, but a major catalyst is needed to confirm the direction.
Analysis of key time and space nodes
From the perspective of time, the Asian session on Wednesday (02:00-14:00 GMT) needs to closely observe the breakthrough of the short-term resistance of US$3025, especially in conjunction with the volume analysis to confirm the effectiveness of the breakthrough. Entering the US session (14:00-22:00 GMT), the market focus will shift to the competition for the double top resistance of US$3055, which is often accompanied by increased volatility caused by data shocks. It is particularly noteworthy that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting will be released early Thursday morning (02:00 GMT), which is likely to become a key catalyst to break the current deadlock.
Key positions for long and short games
Through multi-time frame analysis, we have identified the following key positions:
Short-term level: $3025 is a bullish attack signal, and $2980 is a bearish defense line
Mid-term dimension: $3055 is a trend confirmation level, and $2955 is a bullish and bearish watershed
Long-term perspective: A breakthrough of $3150 will open up new upside space, while a loss of $2900 may trigger a trend reversal
Based on the current technical structure, the following trading strategies are recommended:
Main strategy (long layout):
Position building range: $2990-2995 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level)
Stop loss setting: $2982 (double protection below the previous low + integer level)
Target system:
The first target is $3025 Yuan (short-term profit-taking point)
The second target is $3055 (confirmation point of pattern breakthrough)
The ultimate target is $3100-3150 (trend extension zone)
Auxiliary strategy (breakthrough follow-up):
After breaking through $3025 in the Asian session, wait for a retracement to $3015 to add 2%
When the US session breaks through $3055, you can chase 3% more positions
Use a 30-point moving stop loss to protect existing profits
Risk warning and management should focus on the following risks:
Policy risk: If the Fed minutes release hawkish signals, it may suppress gold prices
Data risk: US economic data exceeding expectations may trigger a technical correction
Liquidity risk: Asian session false breakthrough and US session volatility increase
Technical risk: A breakout of the $2955 low may trigger a programmed sell
Analysis of key time and space nodes
From the perspective of time, the Asian session on Wednesday (02:00-14:00 GMT) needs to closely observe the breakthrough of the short-term resistance of US$3025, especially in conjunction with the volume analysis to confirm the effectiveness of the breakthrough. Entering the US session (14:00-22:00 GMT), the market focus will shift to the competition for the double top resistance of US$3055, which is often accompanied by increased volatility caused by data shocks. It is particularly noteworthy that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting will be released early Thursday morning (02:00 GMT), which is likely to become a key catalyst to break the current deadlock.
Key positions for long and short games
Through multi-time frame analysis, we have identified the following key positions:
Short-term level: $3025 is a bullish attack signal, and $2980 is a bearish defense line
Mid-term dimension: $3055 is a trend confirmation level, and $2955 is a bullish and bearish watershed
Long-term perspective: A breakthrough of $3150 will open up new upside space, while a loss of $2900 may trigger a trend reversal
Based on the current technical structure, the following trading strategies are recommended:
Main strategy (long layout):
Position building range: $2990-2995 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level)
Stop loss setting: $2982 (double protection below the previous low + integer level)
Target system:
The first target is $3025 Yuan (short-term profit-taking point)
The second target is $3055 (confirmation point of pattern breakthrough)
The ultimate target is $3100-3150 (trend extension zone)
Auxiliary strategy (breakthrough follow-up):
After breaking through $3025 in the Asian session, wait for a retracement to $3015 to add 2%
When the US session breaks through $3055, you can chase 3% more positions
Use a 30-point moving stop loss to protect existing profits
Risk warning and management should focus on the following risks:
Policy risk: If the Fed minutes release hawkish signals, it may suppress gold prices
Data risk: US economic data exceeding expectations may trigger a technical correction
Liquidity risk: Asian session false breakthrough and US session volatility increase
Technical risk: A breakout of the $2955 low may trigger a programmed sell
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.