XAUUSD - 2024/08/28
TECHNICALS:
Ons the daily timeframe we had a strong bullish closure, the 4h is still showing signs of potentials upside. Combining the daily and the 4h timeframe i am still cautiously bullish at the moment. On the 1h timeframe we can see a volume buy zone around the price point of 2500.
I expect a push lower to that volume zone to take out the early buyers.
FUNDAMENTALS:
Rate Cut Speculation Dominates Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains dominated by the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts, with the Fed’s September meeting almost certain to deliver a reduction. Traders are pricing in a 71.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, with a 28.5% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have further fueled these expectations, as he hinted at policy adjustments but refrained from specifying the exact timing or magnitude.
Gold Consolidates Amid rate Cut Uncertainty
Gold prices stabilized near recent highs, consolidating around $2,500 per ounce as traders sought clarity on the size of the Fed’s anticipated rate cut. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that gold might struggle to reach new highs in the short term unless data supports a larger 50-basis-point cut. However, if the Fed delivers 100 basis points in cuts by year-end, gold could break past $2,700.
OVERALL BIAS:
I am still looking to go long if i can get the push lower.
Ons the daily timeframe we had a strong bullish closure, the 4h is still showing signs of potentials upside. Combining the daily and the 4h timeframe i am still cautiously bullish at the moment. On the 1h timeframe we can see a volume buy zone around the price point of 2500.
I expect a push lower to that volume zone to take out the early buyers.
FUNDAMENTALS:
Rate Cut Speculation Dominates Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains dominated by the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts, with the Fed’s September meeting almost certain to deliver a reduction. Traders are pricing in a 71.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, with a 28.5% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have further fueled these expectations, as he hinted at policy adjustments but refrained from specifying the exact timing or magnitude.
Gold Consolidates Amid rate Cut Uncertainty
Gold prices stabilized near recent highs, consolidating around $2,500 per ounce as traders sought clarity on the size of the Fed’s anticipated rate cut. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that gold might struggle to reach new highs in the short term unless data supports a larger 50-basis-point cut. However, if the Fed delivers 100 basis points in cuts by year-end, gold could break past $2,700.
OVERALL BIAS:
I am still looking to go long if i can get the push lower.
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