Be wary of gold’s rising trap, as the smoke bomb in the Middle E
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gRtPMshh/
There is little hope of a rate cut this year. Williams, the Fed’s No. 3 figure, said an interest rate hike is still possible!
This week, expectations for a rate cut have dropped to freezing point. What most voting committee members meant was this: If inflation doesn't fall, high interest rates will remain. If necessary, the possibility of raising interest rates cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the situation in the Middle East is confusing. Iran warned Israel at the United Nations: Saturday's attack was just an appetizer, a minimum attack, and the hard food has not yet been served.
This is also the most stubborn thing Iran has ever done, actively attacking Israel under the nose of the United States. Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli war on October 7 last year, Hamas has taken the initiative to attack Israel to an extent beyond imagination. Iran's attack this time is also a historic move.
This morning, Israel attacked Iran, but Iran softened its attitude and had no intention of provoking a conflict. The price of gold also rushed to $2,417 in the morning, and then returned to the starting point, exciting those who held more funds.
Another thing that also affects gold prices is Russia's announcement to cancel gold tariffs. Russia itself has a lot of gold. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, military expenditures increased significantly. The market is worried that Russia will be tight due to military spending. , selling gold in large quantities.
I don't think there's any need to worry too much. Removing tariffs is not about selling gold. Does this mean that to sell gold you have to sell it to Ukrainians and not trade it in your own country? The elimination of tariffs can make the circulation of gold smoother, thereby promoting gold transactions.
Originally, the surcharge for selling gold was too high due to import and export duties. This time it was canceled. People who didn't plan to buy gold can do so without a hitch, while people who plan to sell can quickly find more buyers. .
The above three points, the Fed's interest rate hike, the situation in the Middle East, and the elimination of gold tariffs are not the key points that affect gold in the long term. I have repeatedly emphasized that what drives gold prices to new human highs is: consensus.
Consensus has a strong siphon effect and is also an ideology. Just like today's young people don't get married and don't have children. No matter how stimulated the policy is, the effect will be small. The main reason is a change in ideology. Young people born in 2000 have more independent personalities. They have a strong sense of self-love. These people must first make themselves comfortable, rather than living for the approval of others.
Gold is now driven by consensus. It’s no longer a matter of raising or lowering interest rates. A few bombs in the Middle East will illustrate this. The stock market is not making money, the government's credit value has declined, and the paper money credit system has begun to falter.
At this point, gold becomes the currency of Musk’s writings. After it started to burn, more and more people began to plan to allocate gold. Even if you buy 100 grams, it is better than buying nothing. In addition, in Le Pen's eyes, mobs and crowds are unconscious. The more people buy, the more people will participate.
Within 4 hours, gold prices surged higher in early trading, but were still consolidating at a high level. The small level is at 2350 and the large level is at 2320. These two points determine whether the top is formed. The weekly trend is still very good, with the bottom at 2320 and a rebound later. This week marks the sixth week of positive closings. Today’s pressure is focused on 2395-2400. The sharp rise in early trading is difficult to sustain. If Europe falls below the bottom (2373 points), the US will fall.
The strategy today is still to treat it as a shock. The general direction has not changed. If it breaks through the morning low of 2373 and then rebounds, it can be shorted during the day. There are many layouts in the 2350-40 area below. After a sharp rise in early trading, it is not recommended to chase the rise after a correction.
If you are interested in my analysis, you can tell me in the comments
There is little hope of a rate cut this year. Williams, the Fed’s No. 3 figure, said an interest rate hike is still possible!
This week, expectations for a rate cut have dropped to freezing point. What most voting committee members meant was this: If inflation doesn't fall, high interest rates will remain. If necessary, the possibility of raising interest rates cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the situation in the Middle East is confusing. Iran warned Israel at the United Nations: Saturday's attack was just an appetizer, a minimum attack, and the hard food has not yet been served.
This is also the most stubborn thing Iran has ever done, actively attacking Israel under the nose of the United States. Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli war on October 7 last year, Hamas has taken the initiative to attack Israel to an extent beyond imagination. Iran's attack this time is also a historic move.
This morning, Israel attacked Iran, but Iran softened its attitude and had no intention of provoking a conflict. The price of gold also rushed to $2,417 in the morning, and then returned to the starting point, exciting those who held more funds.
Another thing that also affects gold prices is Russia's announcement to cancel gold tariffs. Russia itself has a lot of gold. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, military expenditures increased significantly. The market is worried that Russia will be tight due to military spending. , selling gold in large quantities.
I don't think there's any need to worry too much. Removing tariffs is not about selling gold. Does this mean that to sell gold you have to sell it to Ukrainians and not trade it in your own country? The elimination of tariffs can make the circulation of gold smoother, thereby promoting gold transactions.
Originally, the surcharge for selling gold was too high due to import and export duties. This time it was canceled. People who didn't plan to buy gold can do so without a hitch, while people who plan to sell can quickly find more buyers. .
The above three points, the Fed's interest rate hike, the situation in the Middle East, and the elimination of gold tariffs are not the key points that affect gold in the long term. I have repeatedly emphasized that what drives gold prices to new human highs is: consensus.
Consensus has a strong siphon effect and is also an ideology. Just like today's young people don't get married and don't have children. No matter how stimulated the policy is, the effect will be small. The main reason is a change in ideology. Young people born in 2000 have more independent personalities. They have a strong sense of self-love. These people must first make themselves comfortable, rather than living for the approval of others.
Gold is now driven by consensus. It’s no longer a matter of raising or lowering interest rates. A few bombs in the Middle East will illustrate this. The stock market is not making money, the government's credit value has declined, and the paper money credit system has begun to falter.
At this point, gold becomes the currency of Musk’s writings. After it started to burn, more and more people began to plan to allocate gold. Even if you buy 100 grams, it is better than buying nothing. In addition, in Le Pen's eyes, mobs and crowds are unconscious. The more people buy, the more people will participate.
Within 4 hours, gold prices surged higher in early trading, but were still consolidating at a high level. The small level is at 2350 and the large level is at 2320. These two points determine whether the top is formed. The weekly trend is still very good, with the bottom at 2320 and a rebound later. This week marks the sixth week of positive closings. Today’s pressure is focused on 2395-2400. The sharp rise in early trading is difficult to sustain. If Europe falls below the bottom (2373 points), the US will fall.
The strategy today is still to treat it as a shock. The general direction has not changed. If it breaks through the morning low of 2373 and then rebounds, it can be shorted during the day. There are many layouts in the 2350-40 area below. After a sharp rise in early trading, it is not recommended to chase the rise after a correction.
If you are interested in my analysis, you can tell me in the comments
Trade active
Gold begins to decline after a brief adjustmentTrade active
Did you see that? Gold is starting to fallTrade active
Gold is very obedient, it really fellTrade active
As gold rises, it falls as well, which is obviously a bull market.
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