GOLD: Uncertainty Over US Debt Talks Impacts Currency and Gold
Updated
US debt talks to avoid default create market uncertainty as no resolution reached over the weekend, ongoing discussions expected. White House Adviser Ricchetti and President Biden express commitment to finding a solution. The looming risk of a US default negatively affects the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields, supporting the recovery gains in Gold prices.
The lack of a decision on the US debt ceiling could lead to market turmoil and trigger risk aversion if Biden and McCarthy fail to reach an agreement. In such a scenario, a flight to safety may boost the US Dollar, although its upside potential could be limited by losses in Treasury bond yields. As a result, Gold prices could experience some volatility but likely remain within a familiar range.
With no major US data releases, the focus remains on the US debt ceiling talks.
Last Friday, anxiety surrounding the US debt ceiling talks and Chairman Powell's speech caused the US Dollar to lose its weekly bullish momentum, leading to a significant bounce in Gold prices.
During a Federal Reserve conference, Chairman Powell indicated that stresses in the banking sector might alleviate the need for a significant rise in the policy rate to achieve goals. This hint at a potential pause in the June Fed rate hike exacerbated the US Dollar's decline, accompanied by a retreat in the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields from their two-month highs of 3.72%. Consequently, the market is now pricing a 14% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike next month, compared to about 33% prior to Powell's speech.
From a technical standpoint, Gold remains in a bearish momentum. In recent sessions, the price experienced a pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci continuation retracement, suggesting a potential continuation of this trend.
The lack of a decision on the US debt ceiling could lead to market turmoil and trigger risk aversion if Biden and McCarthy fail to reach an agreement. In such a scenario, a flight to safety may boost the US Dollar, although its upside potential could be limited by losses in Treasury bond yields. As a result, Gold prices could experience some volatility but likely remain within a familiar range.
With no major US data releases, the focus remains on the US debt ceiling talks.
Last Friday, anxiety surrounding the US debt ceiling talks and Chairman Powell's speech caused the US Dollar to lose its weekly bullish momentum, leading to a significant bounce in Gold prices.
During a Federal Reserve conference, Chairman Powell indicated that stresses in the banking sector might alleviate the need for a significant rise in the policy rate to achieve goals. This hint at a potential pause in the June Fed rate hike exacerbated the US Dollar's decline, accompanied by a retreat in the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields from their two-month highs of 3.72%. Consequently, the market is now pricing a 14% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike next month, compared to about 33% prior to Powell's speech.
From a technical standpoint, Gold remains in a bearish momentum. In recent sessions, the price experienced a pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci continuation retracement, suggesting a potential continuation of this trend.
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The gold price is facing challenges in taking advantage of a slight increase in value during the early European session on Wednesday. It is encountering selling pressure around the $1,980 region, causing it to drop back towards the $1,970 level in the past hour. The gold price had previously experienced a bounce from its monthly low last week but appears to have reached a temporary pause.One of the factors impeding the gold price's progress is the recent hawkish remarks made by several officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed). These statements have raised expectations of further interest rate hikes, with the market now pricing in a 30% chance of a 25 basis points increase in June. This development acts as a headwind for gold, as it is a non-yielding asset. The upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes later during the US session is highly anticipated, as investors will scrutinize them for any clues regarding the future path of interest rate hikes. The outcome of this will significantly influence the short-term dynamics of the US dollar and provide fresh direction for the XAU/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the lack of progress in talks to raise the United States' (US) debt ceiling and concerns about a global economic slowdown contribute to supporting the safe-haven appeal of gold. Negotiations between President Joe Biden's representatives and congressional Republicans failed to reach an agreement on increasing the government's $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. The possibility of an unprecedented US debt default creates apprehension among investors and impacts market sentiment. Additionally, the looming risks of a recession serve as another factor deterring bearish activity on the XAU/USD pair.
Another factor affecting the gold price is the strength of the US dollar. On Tuesday, worries resurfaced after flash Eurozone PMI data indicated a slightly greater slowdown in overall business activity than anticipated, with both the services and manufacturing sectors underperforming. This followed the release of disappointing Chinese macro data the previous week, suggesting a weaker performance of the world's second-largest economy in May. These factors necessitate caution before expecting a resumption of the recent pullback from the all-time high. Furthermore, the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar limits the upside potential for gold.
In fact, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, remains stable near a two-month high reached on Tuesday. This reflects growing expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Consequently, demand for gold priced in US dollars is undermined, especially in anticipation of the crucial FOMC meeting minutes. Traders will also closely monitor the progress of US debt ceiling negotiations and US bond yields, as they are likely to impact US dollar demand. Additionally, overall market sentiment will play a role in providing short-term trading opportunities for the XAU/USD pair.
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