Short

Updated

BEAR CASE #1

SUMMARY - This is just in case we move for 2011 overnight.

DETAILS - Price must be on time for bear case to win Thurs/Fri's move to 1970-1985 area.

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4:56 PM ET - for overnight through Thursday:
a) we need 2011, tomorrow AM
b) then we need day market to close the gap
c) then stepping back down to NFP's rug pull on Friday
d) so by moving to 2055 early today AND also closing in 2030s...
e) price has set this up, and this usually hits when it sets this way
f) the issue is Friday's low and close, where it falls from 1972-1987
g) the close will give us a clue for next 10 days of price action or through 02/23
h) that "x" in chart above marks the huge triangle formed since October
i) obviously breaking above the triangle and coming back down...
j) IS A BEAR AF SIGNAL LIKE YOU DONT BELIEVE...
k) lets deal with 1972 first

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l) but here's what I meant:

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m) the clue to this move was the early move to 2055
n) I said that I've never seen price do this HOURS A HEAD OF FOMC
o) it just didn't occur to me run bear maps ahead of time
p) but then again, I HAD NO REASON TO

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q) it wasn't until late in the day that price was "out of bounds for bull case"
r) technically, right now, it is still not out of bounds
s) but the signal for 2011 is really legit

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5:51 PM ET: correction: it should take 2 bounces on "x" before breaking it:

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a) so in chart above
b) 2008 Thursday
c) NFP "kiss of death" would seal the route to 1975

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d) so:

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e) 1 AM ok... after that is a problem.

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f) first clue:

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g) if bulls move to 2058, that should immediately kill this bear route

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8:41 AM ET SO INCONCLUSIVE:

a) in theory this should out bullishly
b) if the pattern holds, it should be one more higher high and then rug pull again
c) and then zig zag all the way to next Friday

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9:39 PM, ITS NOT GOING ANYWHERE:

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a) in chart above, it's like that through next Friday
b) it's not the drop, it's the reaction
c) it has to be immediate or ceiling is in around 60 for 7-8 days

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d) the chart generic bc you can't do detail for this zone, the zig zag comes without warning
e) but the "general shape is like that"

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f) and we are locked in a sin curve for almost 60 days

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g) and you already know they are not cutting in March, that's 03/20 FOMC
h) so we manage to makei it to end of next week
i) we have a shot for 2120 and then back down to 2050 again around 3/10
j) then we zig-zag up for3 weeks
k) so if there is something to write about, it would be closer to 03/25 OR LATER

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l) to sum it up, if we survive the next 7 days
m) our reward is a 45-day round trip
n) that's the thing about this...
o) in early December odds said March cut for sure
p) now it's MAYBE MAY CUT...
q) remember, long into the first cut
r) could be May or not

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9:21 AM ET 2047.XX, once again,not going anywhere.
a) so two charts up, I said this part was too much zig zag, I couldn't detail it
'b) and this is why, price action like this
c) the ceiling is in at 55, we are not going anywhere
d) NFP will help? no, no it won't bc:
1) these things are bactward looking a bit while fed meetings are not every month
2) they are JAN, MAR, MAY, JUN, JUL, SEP, NOV, DEC
3) while January report (which comes early February) have been blowouts last several years
4) while the jump this morning (responding to INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS) is NOT IMPRESSIVE considering how long we were at the lows this morning

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9:45 AM ET 2050.XX, feel like a celing you say?

a) so to undo the "technical damage" done this morning in that box
b) price need to do yellow part
c) it probably won't bc markets opened 15 min ago and the juice ran out
d) so now question WHAT LOW IS FRIDAY AFTERNOON?

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e) in chart above where the question marks are:
f) I don't think 2030 holds here
g) this is the weakest zone Friday and Tuesday...
h) if we hit 2025 or lower and close there tomorrow
i) that's a problem we can't fix until Wednesday bc Tuesday is the weakest remaining day from here to Sunday 2/11

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a) so it's building an 'M" top (batman top) for NFP
b) the problem is that's a really big "M" for if you want only 30 pts
c) meaning the top is 55 at NFP, so to move 30 to 2025....
d) that's TOO BIG OF AN "M" for 30 pt spike down
e) that size of M can do 60, that's a wrap for today

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a) in chart above, that's the odds-on favorite in my opinion for all of February
b) and I've known this for sometime and didn't want to bring it up
c) and here's what that means to July:

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d) so that's where we are at
e) play the chart at top though, it's not a "mirror image" of bear route
f) it's just a "higher version" right now
g) so?
h) it's not a signal 2025 will hold, which IS ANNOYING AF

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i) replay this one though:

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GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT, DRAFT 4, FINAL SETUP DRAFT

j) in chart above, that's DRAFT 4 from 01/19
k) if you hit replay on that chart:
1) from 01/19-01/26 we were MIRRORING BLUE route
2) which is bearish, bc it's the "opposite" route
3) but we have since 01/26 have been MIRRORING ORANGE route
4) which is bullish
5) statistically WE ARE SOOOOOO CLOSE to closing the door on bears
6) but it aint over until next week

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11:10 2058 new high!!!
a) that's A BIG DEAL!!
b) I thought it almost impossible
c) the higher we get, the better odds 2030 hold for 3-4 days

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d) odds now favor 2025 holding FRIDAY
e) and 2030 holding TUESDAY
f) by a lot! (as long as we don't move under 2030 in 3-4 hours)
g) this makes Feb RALLY ALMOST A LOCK!!!!

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11:26 AM 2061.XX almost at top if not top right now
a) we broke the ceiling already
b) I can see 63.. but it can also rug pull ANY TIME NOW

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ON A SIDE NOTE: he difference between an "M'" top and a quad top:
1) M tops have first and last tops the highest
2) M tops are bearish with few exceptions
3) quad tops usually have the THIRD OF FOUR TOPS the highest
4) quad tops are short term bearish BUT LONG TERM BULLISH

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11:46 2065.xx, above 63, I have no idea what's going on
a) this is bc, it's out of intermediate bollingers now
b) so forecasting fails here if this holds

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c) only headline that has impression would be U.S. approval for strikes against Iranian targets..
d) but inside Iraq and Syria, not Iran itself

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1:00 PM THURSDAY WRAP UP, 2054.XX
1) stayed above 2063 for almost 10 minutes, excellent
2) from here, a 55 close is excellent
3) a 49 close is not a big deal then
4) closing under 49 IS A DISAPPOINTMENT, but should almost be expected
5) we are talking about gold after all
6) gold doesn't do appointments, remember?

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3:12 PM, 48 MIN TO GO, THIS BETTER NOT HIT LOWER BOX

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4:02, DIDN'T HIT THE BOX, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH!!

a) definitely good enough to expect 2028 to hold tomorrow
b) why would it get tested, how do I know that?
c) I don't know that, I'll post 24 hour chart and we'll play it by ear

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THIS POST HAS ENDED HERE IS NEXT 48 HOURS:

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